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Asia. Uneasy Scenarios.

The new year comes not only with a wide series of events, starting with important elections in several countries, but it also opens onto a restless scenario with open conflicts and tensions that could further increase the instability of crucial areas of the continent from the South China Sea to the East China Sea, as well as in areas contested by Pakistan, India, and the People’s Republic of China.

In China, the post-Covid-19 pandemic seems to propose new difficulties rather than a recovery that would serve to ward off suspicions and criticisms at home and abroad regarding the authorities’ attitude in combating the virus which has been accompanied by the accentuated authoritarianism of the almost total power of President Xi Jinping. However, this does not prevent there being difficulties in managing power, tensions between the various currents and clans within the party, as evidenced by the dismissal of several ministers in 2023, and the de facto end of the reformist movement headed by former prime minister Li Keqiang who died on October 27. The planning today does not seem to coincide with the data and prospects of the current five-year plan and the objective of global economic primacy indicated to the Chinese by Xi which could, at the very least, recede, while the already eroded confidence of diplomacy and investors awaits Beijing to test its maturity in managing the Ukrainian crisis and the growing tensions in the Far East of which it is a co-protagonist.

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech at the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting in San Francisco, the United States, Nov. 17, 2023. (Xinhua/Li Xueren)

In Hong Kong, the ongoing economic and financial decline in the Special Autonomous Region of China will be confronted with political choices aimed at limiting even more freedoms and rights. The expected approval of a new security law that definitively closes any space for criticism and opposition will certainly not restore impetus to a society impoverished by the substantial emigration of young people, intellectuals and professionals; infiltrated by denunciation, intimidated by continuous arrests and trials that affect anyone who has participated in any way in the anti-government demonstrations of recent years based on liberticidal measures imposed since 30 June 2020 inspired by the National Security Law of the People’s Republic of China. The production and financial system, which is increasingly subjected to the needs of the People’s Republic of China and its rules, sees the withdrawal of foreign companies and investments without signs of a countertrend for 2024.
Taiwan. Taiwan will see new parliamentary and presidential elections on January 13th. A decisive round in a period of growing tensions with the threat increased by repercussions. Despite not being the favourite for the parliamentary vote, even if probably with the support of the new Taiwan People’s Party, it is even more difficult for the Kuomintang to try to have its own presidential candidate. In favour of the island’s integration with mainland China and winner of the local elections in November, the party seeks a statement that eases tension with Beijing and the risk of military initiatives. The Democratic Progressive Party of outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, although disheartened by voters regarding the management of the pandemic and the increase in the cost of living, on the other hand, can capitalize on the support of large sectors of the economy and the population who fear the realization of the idea of ‘one country two systems’ which has dramatically revealed its failure in Hong Kong.

Lahore. Minar-e-Pakistan is a national monument marking Pakistan’s independence movement. CC BY-SA 4.0/ Holosoft

This year will also see elections in the major Islamic countries of Asia: to renew their respective parliaments on January 13th in Bangladesh and on the 28th in Pakistan. These events are expected, in the first place, to confirm the leadership of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and his pragmatic choices even if not free from criticism for the harshness with which he contrasts political opposition and radical Islam; and in the second to perhaps allow greater stability after months of political uncertainty and social tensions in a dramatic economic situation.
Indonesia‘s elections will be presidential and parliamentary on February 24th. A three-way race for the highest state office which, according to analysts, could divide the country with the largest economy in South-East Asia looking for a role that has so far not been achieved. Another element of interest but also of concern is the participation as a vice-presidential candidate in the team of the former general and current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a conservative candidate for the position of head of state, of Gibran Rakabuming Raka, son of the president in office, Joko Widodo, who defeated Subianto in the last elections. Beyond the evident contradictory nature of the candidacies, the fear is that this could consolidate a new dynasty of leaders in the turbulent Indonesian politics, in apparent contrast with the democratic and progressive demands promoted by Widodo so far.
The result of the Indonesian vote will be even more important, due to the passing of the rotating presidency of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) from Indonesia to Laos last September. A ‘weak’ presidency that the new Indonesian leaders will be able to try to address, strengthened by the demographic and economic weight of their country but also by the complete democracy of the archipelago where there is no shortage of limits and contradictions.
Laos, in fact, with Cambodia and Myanmar, is part of a group under pressure inside and outside the Association regarding respect for fundamental rights and individual and collective freedoms, as well as for the low level of development and well-being.

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the Republic of India. (Photo: Prime Minister’s Office)

Finally, even India, ‘the largest democracy in the world’, presents itself on the electoral front in 2024 with a call to the polls of great importance and complexity which in several rounds between April and May will allow almost a billion voters to renew the lower house of the central Parliament but also the local assemblies of all levels. Once again competing for control of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha will be the coalition led by the nationalist Bharatiya Janata party and the one led by the Indian National Congress party which in the outgoing chamber had obtained 303 and 52 seats, respectively. The position of the BJP led by Narendra Modi is almost unassailable, but the battle will clarify whether the Congress will be able to overcome its now long leadership crisis, which not even the central role of the Gandhi family has so far been able to heal.

Members of Myanmar Parliament attend the Lower House session in capital Naypyidaw, Myanmar. CC BY-SA 3.0/ Htoo Tay Zar

In Myanmar, under an emergency law that had been postponed several times and which has postponed new elections now scheduled for 2025, there is an increasingly full-blown civil war. In the face of international inattention, the regime continues to arm itself to fight against its own population, to keep in detention or under house arrest a large part of the democratic leadership that had re-imposed itself with the November 2020 vote, defeated by the regime after the coup of February 1, 2021. Those who saved themselves from repression and who gave life to the National Unity Government (NUG) which operates clandestinely, continue to seek international legitimation and support while increasingly directing not only the Burmese dissidents, who in turn are arming themselves and organizing themselves into popular self-defence groups, but also ethnic militias. The current international situation and the still present interests of many countries in Burmese resources play into the junta’s game, while the situation for the Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been imprisoned again for months and in precarious health, becomes difficult also on the level of personal safety.

Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida. CC BY 4.0/Prime Minister’s Office

Japan. Facilitated at the end of 2023 by an economic recovery and a weak yen which made products and brands more saleable, the year 2024 will be lived in a Japan aiming for recovery from the Covid emergency with hopes of a greater strategic role for Tokyo which, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, also works on the renewed interest abroad in the country (as evidenced by an unstoppable tourist flow) and a more proactive role of the government required by its alliances and the protection of its interests at a regional and global level. Internally, Kishida has two lines: continue the expansionary policy of his predecessor Shinzo Abe (Abenomics) to relaunch production, exports, and consumption; address more efficiently the problems associated with the decline in births, the accelerated aging of the population, adequate welfare, and guarantee adequate employment opportunities for women and young people. (Open Photo: Pixabay)

Stefano Vecchia
Asian Analyst

 

Yemen: Houthi piracy in the Red Sea.

Recent Houthi piracy attacks heighten global maritime security concerns in the Red Sea, despite international efforts of deterrence.

The issue of maritime security and insecurity in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb area is primarily tied to Yemen’s militarized islands. Since 2015, Yemeni islands are mostly controlled, as for its coastline, by armed groups: the Iranian-backed Yemen’s Houthis and a variety of forces supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In the context of the Yemen war, the Houthis have repeatedly attacked Saudi and Emirati targets using various maritime warfare tactics. Recently, amid the Hamas-Israel war, the Houthis are turning to piracy –alongside aerial attacks- against Israeli targets in the Red Sea.

On November 19th, the hijacking by the Houthis of an Israeli-related cargo ship, “Galaxy Leader”, has turned the light on the risks to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The ship was seized off the Yemeni Western coast and diverted to the close Houthi-controlled Hodeida port city. However, this is not the first time the Houthis perform a
piracy attack in these waters.

Between January-April 2022, the Iranian-backed armed group, controlling much of North-Western Yemen, seized an Emirati cargo ship, “Rawabi”, while it was sailing off the Hodeida coast. The 11-member crew was released only four months later, due to the national truce brokered in Yemen.

In recent years, maritime security in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb area has been negatively impacted by the Yemen war. Since 2015, the Houthis have attacked several times both military and commercial targets in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb: Saudi warships, the US Navy, Saudi oil tankers and coastal infrastructures, Emirati civilian ships.

Maritime attacks from Yemen were performed with drones, missiles, rockets, remoted-controlled boats; floating sea mines were also planted to disrupt navigation. Between 2015-17, the Bab el-Mandeb strait was the epicentre of Houthis’ attacks.

Since 2017, Emirati-backed Yemen’s armed groups have taken control of the Bab el-Mandeb area pushing the Houthis to withdraw, and thus securing the choke-point’s neighbourhood. Therefore, the flashpoint area has moved to the Southern Red Sea, where the Houthis are still in control of Hodeida, the main port of the Yemeni Western coast.

As for its coasts, Yemen’s islands since 2015 have undergone a process of gradual militarization. First, the Houthis have extended their control to a series of Red Sea islands off the Hodeida coast: these have become linchpins for maritime attacks.

According to the independent Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, since early 2023 the Houthis have been stepping up their military presence off the Hodeida coast, also performing marine patrols. Moreover, Houthis’ naval forces unprecedentedly clashed (in June 2023) with the National Resistance Forces (the Western coast coalition headed by Tareq Saleh), stationed at Zuqar.

In late 2015, the Saudi-led Coalition retook Zuqar, an island of the Hanish archipelago (between Yemen and Eritrea), previously seized by the insurgents, and established a military outpost for the Coalition.

Regarding the Emirati-backed groups, Tareq Saleh’s National Resistance Forces, a coalition which oppose the Houthis while not formally part of the regular security sector, are stationed at Zuqar (Southern Red Sea) and Perim/Mayyun (Bab el-Mandeb).

In 2021, Tareq Saleh stated during an interview that some units of the National Resistance Forces are deployed in Perim, where these are also affiliated with the Yemeni Coast Guard. The small island of Perim hosts an airbase reportedly built by the UAE in 2021.

In the Arabian Sea, Yemen’s Socotra archipelago is a natural gatekeeper to the Bab el-Mandeb, given its geographic location. Since 2018 onwards, Socotra and another island of the archipelago, Abd Al-Kuri, have seen rising military presence, primarily due to the UAE.

When the pro-secessionist-and Emirati-backed- Southern Transitional Council (STC) took control of the island in 2020, the local Coast Guard (still loyal to the internationally-recognized government) had to withdraw from its positions, while one of its battalions joined the STC.

Socotra would host some Emirati-built military installations comprising an Emirati intelligence base in cooperation with Israel, which could deploy Israeli-made sensors to counter Iranian-made missiles and drones). Recently, a military airport would have also been
built in Abd Al-Kuri.

Maritime security in the Red Sea is an issue of global concern. For trade and energy reasons, European, American, Arab and Asian powers are all interested in protecting freedom of navigation along the waterway connecting the Suez Canal with the Indian Ocean.

In recent years, several initiatives have been taken to strengthen Red Sea security, also at the multilateral level. For instance, a US-led task force, the CTF-153, was launched in 2022 to improve maritime security in the area and countering weapons smuggling (of whom the Houthis are the main recipients).

Before and after the start of the Hamas-Israel war, the US has deployed warships and marines in the Red Sea. Moreover, since late October, Israel has strengthened its defense posture to deter Houthis’ attacks.

However, deterrence hasn’t been effective. Rather, the Houthis seem emboldened by the ´stage` the Israel-Hamas war has been indirectly offering them, as well as by the possibility to engage with the US Navy. At the same time, Saudi-Houthi direct talks aimed at reaching a bilateral ceasefire in Yemen are not preventing the armed group from performing multidimensional attacks (aerial and maritime) in and through the Red Sea, with uncertain prospects also for Saudi national security.

While the Bab el-Mandeb area looks safer now, due to the deployment of UAE-backed forces, the Southern Red Sea represents a rising global security threat. As long as the Houthis will hold coastal territories, Yemen’s Western islands will continue to be unpredictable stoplights in the Red Sea.  (Photo: The guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze (DDG 94) transits the Arabian Sea. MC3 Jeff Atherton/US Navy)

Eleonora Ardemagni/ISPI

Syria. Aiming at the New Generations.

Thirteen years of war have shaped the daily lives of the people remaining in Syria. Millions of children have never known peace. Quality school education is almost non-existent. A generation without a future, which also influences the future of the country. The ‘Don Bosco’ paediatric centre of the Salesians in Damascus is a refuge for many of these boys and girls.

According to United Nations estimates, at least 13,000 children and young people have been killed in the Syrian war. Katia Sioufi survived. In those days, a few seconds could have decided whether she or someone else would be left lifeless on the pavement in front of the school gate. Images that the young woman, now 24 years old, will keep forever. Images of a war that changed her life and her future forever.

Katia was 11 years old when the war began and took with it many of her friends.Photo Salesian missions

Katia was 11 years old when the war began and took with it many of her friends. Her family remained intact: her father Elias, her mother Violet, and her younger brother Georges.
The older sister Maria left Syria some time ago and took refuge in Hungary with her husband. For the next few years, Katia would only be able to communicate with her youngest niece via cell phone.
Despite everything, Katia is lucky because she is not one of the two million children in Syria who have not attended school for years. They could not be educated because their schools were destroyed, their teachers fled, or poverty forced them to work. The neighbourhood of Jaramana where Katia lives, a suburb southeast of the historic centre of Damascus, has been violently attacked for years, but the school has remained standing despite the impact of grenades and bombs. Sometimes the teachers would only come in the morning.

The Don Bosco Centre
In those years, the one place where she always found someone to welcome her was the ‘Don Bosco’ Salesian Centre for children and young people. The team made up of a handful of religious, lived there and would deliberately leave the gates open, even when gunshots could be heard day and night, and many were afraid to leave their homes. Even today, Katia, who now studies computer science at the University of Damascus, visits the bright building, located on a quiet street in the Al-Salheya neighbourhood, near the city centre, several times a week. Next door, the Salesian nuns run a kindergarten and, from the minaret opposite, the muezzin calls the Muslim neighbours to prayer.

For many years, Fr. Miguel Ángel Condo Soto has worked alongside the populations of the Middle East. Photo: Salesian Missions

Here, at the Don Bosco Centre, Katia meets her friends; here they can have fun together, listen to music, practise sports, play the guitar or put on plays, talk about God and the world – and always find someone to listen to them when their worries are great. The heart of the centre is the chapel. It is a place of peace where Mass is regularly celebrated (attended by many migrant workers, especially Filipinos). Every week, 1,200 children and young people aged between 8 and 25 from socially disadvantaged areas of Damascus attend the Salesian centre with its huge courtyard. Most of them live in the densely populated Jaramana area.
They come from Christian, Orthodox, Maronite and Catholic families – a minority that is disappearing in Syria. “Our centre is a refuge”, explains Miguel Ángel Condo Soto. The 34-year-old Bolivian Salesian priest knows well the needs and suffering of Syrian families. For many years he has worked alongside the populations of the Middle East. “The people in Syria have more than thirteen years of war behind them. They suffer and yet continue to live every day. Everything is in short supply here. Many people can barely earn their daily bread. Food prices are high, petrol is expensive. With us, children and young people can leave the worries of everyday life behind for a few hours and grow stronger”.

The shanty towns
The Salesian community hires buses to take all the children and young people to the safety of the Don Bosco Centre and bring them home after morning lessons. Katia Sioufi steps out of one of these colourful vehicles in Jaramana in the late afternoon. In the dusty streets there is a lot to do. To the right and left of the narrow alleys, illegally constructed buildings rise towards the sky, leaning precariously.
In the past, when Jaramana was still a small town in its own right, most of the people who lived here were Christians and Druze. Today Jaramana is a refuge for countless Palestinian families and Iraqi refugees. The slums begin on the outskirts of the city, where children rummage through piles of roadside rubbish. Katia is returning home. She used to live in Babtouma, the city where she was born, but rents have become unaffordable for a family like the Sioufis.
On the top floor of a tall building, Katia’s parents are waiting for her. Three bedrooms, a kitchen, and a bathroom. The folding dining table is pulled out from behind the cabinet. Mama Violet serves rice today with chicken meat, which cost her a lot of money.

The Don Bosco Centre wants to offer a safe place for many children and young people. Photo: Salesian Missions

The 51-year-old woman comments: “What we earn is barely enough to live on. Before the war, we could send Katia to a public school. Now we can no longer support our children as we would like”. Later, 19-year-old Georges returned home. He has found work in a small jewellery shop. The money he earns is not enough for him to study. Like every other day, he makes his bed on the sofa. Hoping for a better future, Katia wants to continue studying. She can do this with the help of the Salesians, who have rented a small house in Jaramana with financial help from abroad. In the classrooms of this outpost of the Don Bosco Centre, every day, supplementary lessons are given to as many children in the neighbourhood as possible: mathematics, Arabic, English, physics, and everything you need. For many of them, it is the only quality education they receive during the day. The teachers are former students of the Don Bosco community, who teach younger children in the afternoon, thus earning some money for their families. “We support young people socially, emotionally and spiritually”, explains Father Miguel. Katia is one of the young people who teaches the younger children, and she enjoys coming here to study. There is almost no electricity in the house and in winter there is no heating.

“We want the young generations to realize their dreams here again”. Photo: Salesian Missions

“If we are cold, we cannot learn well”, says Leen Abou Sekka, another former Don Bosco youth in charge of the Jaramana house. About 250 children come regularly. Leen turns off the lights at 10 p.m. “Public schools in Syria are not of a good standard. Furthermore, many girls and boys have physical and psychological injuries. They have suffered many bad things. Some have stammers, others are violent, still others have completely withdrawn from the community. The war still affects them today”. Leen would like more space and a larger group of teachers. But there is no money. However, a small meal is served every day. Nothing hot, mostly sandwiches, which can easily be prepared. The centre asks families for a symbolic financial contribution.
In Damascus, there are not many safe places for children. The Don Bosco Centre wants to offer a safe place for many children and young people. Father Dany Kerio, director of the Salesian community in Damascus, says: “We want the young generations to realize their dreams here again”, so that Syria does not remain a lost country. (Open Photo: Salesian Missions)

Kristina Balbach/Missio

 

The Sahel. The Elegance of Nomads.

For desert shepherds, elegance and grace are antidotes to the desolation and hostility of the environment. Their cult of beauty has an identity value that hides profound social implications, as demonstrated by the significance of the turbans and Saharan makeup.

Although they live in the desert or arid lands, the Tuareg and the Peul, nomads devoted to pastoralism, do not give up caring for their physical appearance: self-care, however, is never an end in itself, but always oriented towards socially defined purposes.
The two peoples, scattered over a large part of the Sahara and the Sahel, live in contiguous territories and this has stimulated fierce friction or deep collaboration, depending on the circumstances.

the Tuareg and the Peul, nomads devoted to pastoralism are scattered over a large part of the Sahara and the Sahel.

In Mali and Burkina Faso, the tensions that see them as protagonists are lacerating, but in Niger, at the end of the rainy season, anyone wandering around the golden savannahs around Abalak would find dozens of Tuareg and Peul families moving to reach the same pastures rich in salt and good for their animals.
The closeness between the two groups in Niger is such that the Peul have taken on some of the typical elements of the Tuareg parure in their clothing, such as the turban, the traditional sword, called takuba, and the red leather cases to be worn around the neck and displayed towards the front, useful for holding tobacco or money.
The sharing of the same spaces, however extensive, has favoured the migration of aesthetic details from one group to another, as proof of the porosity of each ethnic group and of the openness to adopt features of other contiguous ones.

Discretion and pride
Generally, there is no family or village celebration, or even a simple visit to relatives or acquaintances, which is not an excuse to dress in a certain way and decorate oneself and the dromedaries with an abundance of carefully painted leather harnesses, to use the best saddle and to wrap meters of fabric around the head for the turban, the element that more than any other identifies the men of this group.

“A word that must be raised, fed and trained; the word as something to take care of like the body or clothing”.

The tagelmust is a long cotton band, usually between 3 and 5 meters long, but which can also reach 10, dyed indigo and wrapped around the head and face of the Tuareg so as to form both a turban and a veil which covers the face, leaving only a slit open for the eyes. The tagelmust is part of the clothing of every Tuareg but above all, it is an integral part of the way of behaving, it is an emanation of the code of values in which discretion and pride are intertwined.
The band on the forehead of the turban is called asshak and represents all the things that make a man worthy of being called as much.

Words to be shepherded
The part that covers the mouth and nose, called tenna, represents the ability to keep faith with what is said, with one’s word. In the context of a pastoral culture centred on transhumance and the daily care of animals, in a society where everyone, except blacksmiths, is also a shepherd, to think that the attention paid to the word implies the same sense of caring for animals and that therefore the man through the veil is the shepherd of his own word gives the measure of the attention, of the thoughtfulness, of the reflection with which the word is used, as precious as the heads of cattle. A word that must be raised, fed and trained; the word as something to take care of like the body or clothing. Tradition has it that the eyes, ears, and nose are covered as much as possible by the veil both to protect against the wind, sun and cold and to prevent bad spirits from infiltrating the orifices.

Different turbans
Therefore, the use of the turban, such an eye-catching and distinctive element of the aesthetic aspect of the Tuaregs, arises from practical needs related to the environment as well as from spiritual beliefs and, as a consequence, confers mystery and majesty on men, removing what is human, of truth, which is in every face.

The turban represents the identity of a group and at the same time each one’s personality.

It is representative of the identity of a group and at the same time of each one’s personality, as each man wraps it in his own way by superimposing the band of fabric in multiple concentric turns: some make it into a large pot-bellied doughnut, some compose it vertically creating a sort of cylinder, fitting the end that closes the bands in a charming and showy way creating a sort of bow. During daily activities, the turbans worn are those of ‘work’, worn and soiled but never wrapped carelessly or badly.
The classic festival veil, called alesho, made of at least fifty narrow bands of cotton fabric sewn together and dyed with indigo, is used only in ceremonial circumstances. The colour with which the fabric is soaked is not indelibly fixed since there is no mordant for indigo, which releases bluish shades with metallic reflections on the skin, and it is foreseen that these are left both to protect the skin and because the face, tanned in this way, is aesthetically very appreciated.

Code of conduct
Among the Peul, there is a code of behaviour that inspires everyone, the pulaaku, which dictates not only the rules of action to be worthy of calling oneself Peul but also the rules of speaking, the tone of voice, one’s appearance and one’s pose. Carriage and good manners are absolute values among the Peul and should be celebrated together with the concept of tappel, physical beauty.
Proud of their looks, the Wodaabe shepherds (a fraction of the Peul world scattered between Niger and Chad) gather every year in the heart of the Sahel at the end of the rainy season on the occasion of Gerewol, a sort of great vanity festival that celebrates the beauty of nomads and it is the occasion when marriages are arranged.

A pastoral culture centred on transhumance and the daily care of animals.

Exuberantly dressed and made up, the young people flaunt their physical prowess and give life to a spectacular ceremony made up of sensual dances and alluring glances. It is not a simple beauty contest, but an aesthetic ritual that has a profound social value. These ceremonies, by encouraging marriages between members of different clans, are a valuable tool for strengthening the cohesion of an otherwise very fragmented ethnic group. For seven days and seven nights the dancers of two different lineages, by previous agreement, confront each other in a battle with dances and songs whose protagonists are the men on the stage and the women are objects of seduction and potential candidates for new marriages.

Caring for one’s own body
The young nomads spend hours putting on make-up and dancing, showing off their physical beauty and graceful posture as well as their ability to move to reproduce the movements of the long-legged white heron resting on oxen. Self-care and attention to beauty are part of the process of building a relationship with the environment: in a world of thorns, prickly herbs, muddy water, only summer rains if all goes well, scorpions in the dark and merciless suns, the pulaaku, in imposing, among other things, grace, a certain posture and the care of one’s body, feeds a constant yearning for the absolute value of beauty.

The young nomads spend hours putting on make-up and dancing, showing off their physical beauty and graceful posture.

Taking care of one’s body and adorning it even in carrying out daily practices has to do with the rules that regulate the daily relationship with the other, marked by reserve and elegance in manner and tone, but even more: the more the environment is hostile, the gentler one must read on it. The Sahelian undergrowth is insidious, and only postural and gestural elegance allows one to relate to it with a straight back. (Photos: Francesca Mascotto)

Elena Dak/Africa

Elections 2024. From “Confirmed” to “Unknown”.

 Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, and the United States. An intense year of elections in the shadow of Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In Russia, at war with Ukraine, presidential elections will be held on Sunday 17 March 2024. The likely scenario is that the war will still be going on and this situation will influence the electoral process, the unlikely second round of which will take place on April 7.
Putin was first elected in 2000, being re-elected for another four years in 2004. From 2008 to 2012 he gave way to Dimitri Medvedev, whom he replaced as prime minister.
During this period, the constitution was reformed, with six-year presidential terms and several subsequent re-elections.

In Russia, presidential elections will be held on Sunday 17 March 2024. 123rf

Today the Russian president could be re-elected until 2036. The Russian population is 143 million. About 109 million Russians voted in the last presidential elections in 2018. Putin then obtained 76.6% of the votes, in the context of an authoritarian political regime and a minority liberal opposition. Today it is predictable, with the context of the Ukrainian war which has revitalized nationalism, that Putin will win the first round. As The Economist wrote: “Putin will not have a problem declaring himself the winner of the election. His problems may start afterward, as the futility of his war exposes the hollowness of his triumph”. Meanwhile, Russia’s budget for 2024 shows a 70% increase in military spending, to 6% of GDP and a third of all spending.

On March 31, presidential elections would take place in Ukraine. Pixabay

Two weeks later, on March 31, presidential elections would take place in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, elections will be held on the last Sunday of March of the fifth year of the current presidential term. However, the Russian invasion of the country prompted the introduction of martial law, and Ukraine’s constitution prohibits the holding of elections while this law is in force. This implies that if martial law is still in force by that date, the elections could be postponed and rescheduled. If the elections were held, President Volodimir Zelensky would be elected by a landslide. In the Economist’s Democracy Index, Ukraine ranks 87th, within the group that qualifies as hybrid regimes, the third highest place in the ranking.

The European Union will hold parliamentary elections from 6 to 9 June 2024. The European Parliament building in Strasbourg. Photo © European Union, EP.

The European Union will hold parliamentary elections from 6 to 9 June 2024. Its 27 countries are represented by 705 deputies. It is the largest electorate after India and the first in number of voters for a transnational organization (it has a population of 446 million). The first bloc is that of the People’s Party, with 177 legislators. These are centre-right forces, mostly of Christian Democratic origin. As its first force, it elected the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyden, of the German Christian Democrats. Second is the Progressive bloc formed around social democracy, and it has 142 deputies. Third is Renovating Europe, a moderate centre-right force, with 100, and fourth is the Greens, with 72 seats. Then comes the Group of European Conservatives and Reformists, with 66, followed by Identity and Democracy, seen to be of the far right, with 62 members, and the Confederal Group of the European United Left, with 37. Furthermore, there are 47 independent deputies. Clearly, the right predominates in its various expressions, moderate or extreme. The central question is how much the bloc of identity and democracy will grow, as it challenges the European Union with varying degrees of emphasis. This current brings together national renewal in the Netherlands, with Geert Wilders, Georgia Meloni’s coalition in Italy, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France and Alice Weidel in Germany. It is expected this group to pick up many seats in the newly expanded 720-strong chamber.

The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024. Pixabay

Finally, the US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024. This country has a population of 328 million. In 2020, 231 million voters were registered for the presidential election. The primary process will be defined in June when it is known who the presidential candidates are. But neither Joe Biden for the Democrats nor Donald Trump for the Republicans seems to be facing rivals of any weight.
For this reason, primaries are held without questions for the presidential formula. Politically, and ideologically, they face a moderate Democrat and a radicalized Republican. Biden is up for re-election, keeping his vice president, Kamala Harris, as his running mate. In the case of his opponent, it is still uncertain who will complement his pairing. But there are many similarities in other fields. If he took office, Biden would do so at 81 and Trump at 78. There has never been a competition of candidates in America at such an advanced age. It doesn’t seem to be the best for a strongly divided society with the tangible unease generated by various causes. The House of Representatives in which Republicans now have a slight majority will also be fully revamped, as happens every two years. So will a third of the Senate, in which Democrats have the majority by a slim margin. On the same date, governors will also be elected in eleven states and two territories. (Open Photo: 123rf, Pixabat, swm)

Rosendo Fraga/Nueva Mayoria

Africa’s election issues.

Electoral events refer to issues, problems, or challenges that influence elections and voters’ choices. Inherent in the democratic process, they vary depending on the political, economic, social and cultural context of a particular country.

In short, they often include issues of democracy, transparency, access to information, political participation, representativeness, good governance, human rights, and so on. Focusing on these issues is more important than ever to ensure elections that are free, transparent and credible; in fact, it helps to strengthen citizens’ trust in the
democratic system.

In Africa, the electoral process is plagued by major problems related to democracy and political participation. Consequently, challenges such as guaranteeing fundamental rights and freedoms, the political inclusion of minorities, the transparency of electoral processes and the participation of young people and women are still important issues.

Besides, it is not uncommon for elections to be a source of tension and conflict in most African countries. This is due to corruption and fraud, on the one hand, and the tendency towards exclusivity, on the other. These problems dilute trust and undermine the legitimacy of results. In this increasingly digitalized world, access to information and technology represents a major challenge for African elections, as it can affect transparency, communication between stakeholders and voter education.

Furthermore, politicians’ exorbitant earnings influence elections in Africa in one way or another. Didn’t Jean-Marie Ntema say that “Ants never go to an attic where there is nothing”? In some African countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, everyone wants to run towards the same attic; and those who are already there certainly don’t want to leave it. This leads to corruption in government and coups d’état. Politicians may be tempted to accept bribes or engage in illegal activities to increase their personal wealth, compromising the integrity and transparency of electoral processes.

Furthermore, elections in Africa are subject to the long hand of external powers. Financed largely by these powers, they dictate the outcome of the electoral process one way or another.

Western geopolitics, the interests of multinationals and the political calculations of international bodies come into play. Aren’t international observers really the eyes of the so-called “great powers”, who want things to go according to their understanding and vision? It must be said that, although this can be seen as a measure of transparency, their presence has a mainly political motive.

From the above, it is clear that solving the problems associated with electoral issues in Africa requires a multi-stakeholder approach and cooperation between various actors – including governments, regulatory bodies, civil society and citizens (without forgetting the good desire of governments to hold legitimate, free and fair elections). It should be emphasized that politicians’ remuneration must be fair and reflect the value of the work they do.

It will therefore be necessary to promote an inclusive political environment and guarantee fundamental rights and freedoms, in particular for minorities and marginalized groups, encourage the active participation of citizens in the electoral process, put in place control and regulatory mechanisms to prevent electoral fraud, corruption and abuse of power – and ensure the full transparency of the electoral process, including voter registration, vote counting and the proclamation
of results.

Charity Kahongya/J’écris, je crie

Brazil. The Magic Dance.

The marambiré is the most authentic African ritual of all Amazonia. Its rhythm is similar to that of the candomblè, whose costumes, musical instruments, coloured ribbons and rhythm are reminiscent
of African heritage.

It is a display that goes back to the time of slavery. It has been celebrated for almost two centuries and is one of the major popular feasts of the municipality of Alenquer in Parà State in the heart of Amazonia.The marambiré is a sacred rite that is fascinating, dynamic, lively, enchanting, seductive and full of evolving elements. It is marvellous in its human and divine creative imagination and in its mystical power over nature.
It is the greatest sign of the resistance, the cultural life and the desire for freedom of all the black people of Amazonia.

Candomble members dancing and singing. The dance reflects the African origins of the habitat where the culture of Mother Africa developed. 123rf

As a whole, it is a celebration of ‘confraternisation’, a great expression of the humanity of the black community that is understood by retracing the history of the methods of production common in Africa (horticulture) and the memory of the ancestors taken from their country and their cultural context, chained up and thrown into the holds of ships. Many died during the crossings and their bodies were thrown into the Atlantic Ocean. This is why the feast of the marambiré concludes its cycle with a procession along the river where, to the sound of music, thousands of coloured flowers are placed.
It is believed that the waters of the sea and the river are scared as they constitute the cemeteries of their relatives and friends.
The marambiré is the deepest expression of syncretism among the traditions coming from the African continent, especially the Congo, Angola and Mozambique, and the mythology of the Amazonian flora and fauna. It is now part of the historical, cultural, social, political, philosophical and religious heritage of the municipality of Alenquer and the whole of Latin America.

The dances
In the marambiré ritual, dancing is of considerable importance. It is a sort of dancing mime with well-defined rhythms. It is a dance inspired by the coronation of the black kings that the slaves elected in certain periods. Following the oral tradition of ancient beliefs and customs, the marambiré players do not take part in the dance. They accompany an exuberant choreography which produces a spectacle of rare beauty and imagination. As people dance in a circle, all the living strength and flexibility of the black body is visible.
The marambiré is majestic and solemn; as they perform the steps, the dancers exhibit a wealth of movement.
The songs consist of short phrases, simple and enchanting, a mixture of African languages and Portuguese.
The dance reflects the African origins of the habitat where the culture of Mother Africa developed.Those who take part in the marambiré dance go out on the roads in lines and circles, dancing in the squares and internal courtyards of private houses. However, strictly speaking, tradition requires that the dance take place only at the houses of descendants of slaves up to the fifth generation. The dancers, instead, must be directly related to the third degree.

Brazil. The marambiré is majestic and solemn; as they perform the steps, the dancers exhibit a wealth of movement. Pixabay

The dancing group is composed of eighteen first-born men and seven married women called contra-mestre. The musicians are also seven, besides the King and Queen of the Congo who are considered as one, ‘a single and absolute being’. The Queen of the Congo is the most important person in the dance. Dressed very discreetly, she receives the expressions of respect and affection offered by her ‘subjects’. To the sound of drums, tamborins (tambourines), atabaques, violins and pandeiros, the lwulum or ludum similar to the carimbò and the marabaixo is then performed. The Queen of the Congo then dances with such complete vigour that it grips those present to whom – the men, naturally  –  she launches a subtle and knowing challenge by exhibiting versatile and attractive steps which, to the sound of appropriate music, involve the whole group and the audience.

Amazon Forest. The feast of the marambiré concludes its cycle with a procession along the river where, to the sound of music, thousands of coloured flowers are placed. Pixabay

Those flattered by the crown of the king or the queen cannot turn down the invitation: in the final analysis, their majesties are sacred people worthy of respect and must not be disappointed. It is a song of sorrow and lament but also a song of joy and the hope to live free like the birds; the marambiré is not only folklore but a concentrated process of a homogeneous and unified culture that celebrates the wisdom and the struggle of the black communities of Amazonia. (Open Photo:123rf)

Lucas Moraes

The Church young people dream of.

A Church… free, open, welcoming, inclusive, simple, poor, uncomplicated, closer, up-to-date, innovative, comprehensive, authentic, apolitical, humble, respectful, joyful…

Behind the generic name of Church there are actually many different experiences and young people distinguish one from another: the Church is their own parish, their own group, their own association, their own priest, their own ecclesial institution; each of these faces of ecclesial reality evokes different feelings and reactions in young people; interests and objections; attention and suspicion…

For those who have had a parish experience of a certain duration and intensity, Church means one’s own group, people who evoke situations and moments, are more or less pleasant and interesting, depending on the case. Thinking about the parish means remembering faces and relationships: warm or anonymous, cordial or indifferent,
friendly or conflicting.

For better or for worse, this is the aspect that leaves an imprint on the conscience of the new generations that is difficult to erase. There are those who have remained in the ecclesial environment because of the bond with some people, especially significant adult figures, and those who left because they did not feel understood, perceived themselves as excluded, or judged, or not valued. Relationships are very important in the lives of young people.

For the majority of young people, the church is an anonymous, cold, unattractive place: a context to which it is not worth belonging. The experience lived in one’s community calls into question the concrete daily style of ecclesial life, its relational style, a privileged vehicle for communicating the human quality of its life and its message.

Much more problematic is the relationship with the Church as an institution: for many adolescents and especially young people, this constitutes the greatest obstacle to their belonging. For many it seems unthinkable that the religious experience and the relationship with God, which they experience in a very personal and sometimes individualistic way, could be inscribed within an institutional reality that they perceive as mortifying due to the spontaneity of a feeling that in their opinion does not tolerate restrictions that come from the outside.

This aspect is certainly influenced by that trait of youthful sensitivity that finds it difficult to accept that their subjectivity is limited from the outside and which leads them to have a problematic relationship not only with the Church but with all institutions; it certainly
also concerns the Church.

The ecclesial style is perceived as old, boring, cold, and closed. It is clear that a reality perceived in this way cannot be attractive, interesting or engaging. It should also be noted that this way of seeing the ecclesial reality does not only belong to young people who have decided to move away but is also shared by those who have felt they had some reason
to stay or to return.

A Church… free, open, welcoming, inclusive, simple, poor, uncomplicated, closer, current, innovative, comprehensive, authentic, apolitical, humble, respectful, and joyful are the adjectives with which young people represent their dream of the Church.

These qualities speak of a passion for the Church, expressed by young people who also declare they have abandoned it. It could perhaps be said that many abandonments arise from a passion, even before and even more than from rejection; from a wound that doesn’t heal.

There is a desire among young people for a warm, human, welcoming Church, as a twenty-five-year-old with a very effective image states: “The Church should be like a dinner at a friend’s house, where you are free to talk about what you want knowing that on the other side, there are people who love you and who listen to you and who don’t judge you, regardless of what you say and what you think. And also let it be a moment of conviviality.”

And then young people would like a Church in dialogue: with them and with everyone, not dogmatically entrenched in its own positions, but willing to listen, to discuss, to question itself.
The indisputable nature of its positions, even beyond their content, is in itself a reason for distancing.

How many of the young people who have distanced themselves from the Church are willing to return? Many answer “Yes, but… “Yes, but on condition that the Church changes”, “With a Church like this, no”.

Is there a possible rapprochement today between the world of youth and the Church? What steps would young people expect? It is not that the Church should do something particular for young people, but rather it should change its life in those aspects that cause distancing.

It is not that the Church must build its life and its thoughts on the basis of requests from young people or anyone else; however, one cannot fail to evaluate the question of authenticity that exists in their positions: this should be recognized and it deserves an answer.

Young people do not ask her just to change, but to do so from the perspective of the Gospel: to show interest in the existence of people and express the desire to encounter that life that beats in their conscience and in their hearts, as in that of many, not just young people. (Ed.)

Paola Bignardi/Avvenire

Why forest animals live freely.

Many years ago, when the sky was sparsely populated, Hubeghedeh, God of heaven, came to visit his wives on earth, which even then was full of beautiful girls.

In those days, a great Limba tribal chieftain had a very beautiful daughter. She was the only daughter among the many children he had from his many wives, so he named her Taduba (Blessed).
The great chief loved her very much and kept her close to him at all times, so much so that he was immediately worried as soon as Taduba went away even for a few moments.

One day, without telling her father, Taduba went into the forest to look for yam (truffles), and as she wandered, she discovered a spring of clear water that she had never seen before. Tired and thirsty, she approached it to drink and refresh herself, not knowing that the spring belonged to Hubeghedeh and his servants. Every day, in fact, he came to refresh himself and wash at that spring.

Opening the gates of heaven in advance, Hubeghedeh’s servants realized that there was a beautiful maiden at the spring. They immediately went to report this to God, their master, who, appearing at the door, wanted to see who she was. “She is indeed a beautiful girl. I want you to go down at once and take her without doing her any harm. Bring her then up here because I want to see her close. If I like her, I will marry her and she will be my last wife. Quickly, lower the ladder and get her up here before she leaves”, God orders the servants.

The servants carried out the orders without hesitation. In a few moments, Taduba was abducted, taken to heaven, and into the presence of Hubeghedeh. The servants then withdrew the ladder and the
door to heaven was closed.

Taduba’s father was desperate: not seeing her return, he had all his wives search for her everywhere and call for her, to no avail. Days passed without any news of Taduba. The tribal chief wept and despaired. There was no one to reassure him about the fate of his Taduba, whom her father had even promised in marriage to whoever would find her.

The day came when even the animals of the forest heard the cries of the chieftain, whom they respected because he had ordered his people not to set any more traps to catch them. They all decided to go to him together and after giving him courage, they promised him that they would do their best to find his beloved Taduba.

“Please search for and bring back to me my beloved daughter. I will not rest until I see her again! As for you, dear friends of the forest, not only have I already instructed my people not to set any more traps, but I promise that I will give you full freedom to roam all over
my hill country,” said the chief.

Among the animals were a dog, a spider, a goat, a lion, an eagle, a fly, a parrot and an elephant. Before dismissing them, the chieftain had much food prepared for them and, after eating, they set off in search of the beautiful Taduba. The dog preceded them, saying: “If you do not mind, I will go first; by sniffing the air I can discover the direction taken
by the chief’s daughter”.

One after the other, the animals followed the dog. The latter, sniffing right and left, led them to the spring where Taduba had been abducted. Here he stopped abruptly; he sniffed left and right for quite a while until, at a certain point, he lifted his snout upwards, sniffing the air intensely.

Finally, the dog said: “Taduba has risen upwards. Perhaps she has been kidnapped by Hubeghedeh’s servants whom every day come down to wash at this spring. But now, how to get up there?”  “Leave it to me – replied the spider promptly -. I will weave a ladder to the sky; we can then climb it all and look for it up there too.”

As he finished speaking, the spider began to climb, leaving behind a very thin thread. It ascended to the sky, climbing as best it could between clouds and dust. Finally, it descended, leaving behind another thread parallel to the other. The spider ascended again, zigzagging from right to left and vice versa and intersecting the two vertical threads with horizontal threads, like rungs, one not far from the other, so that all the other animals could reach the sky, step by step.

The roads ahead were all covered with grass, so they did not know which way to take to reach the entrance to Hubeghedeh’s palace.
Then the goat came forward and said: “Do not be discouraged. I am used to grazing in the grass. I will lead the way, grazing on the grass that covers the path. Follow me.”

All the other animals followed her. After a few hours, they arrived, all together, at a large entrance barred by several guards, beyond which voices could be heard. The guards blocked their way, threatening them. Then the lion stepped forward and said: “Leave it to me. A roar from me will be enough: they will run away and disappear or faint with fear”. So, saying, the lion emitted a tremendous roar that made the guardsmen fall to the ground, half dead with fear.

Once they had entered Hubeghedeh’s palace together, they heard voices but could not see the people speaking who was behind many curtains. An eagle came forward and said: “Mother Nature has provided me with very long and strong claws with which I will tear down all those curtains: then we will be able to see who is behind them”.

Hubeghedeh appeared to them in all his splendour, but no one could approach him, protected as he was by numerous guards and servants. It was the turn of the fly who said: “Stay here. Do not be afraid. I will go slowly and I will perch very close to Hubeghedeh, perhaps behind his back and, without being noticed, I will be able to hear everything he orders from his servants.”

The fly flew very close to the servants, then settled on Hubeghedeh’s back and listened attentively to his orders. He heard him tell the servants to be very hospitable to the ‘foreigners’ and to entertain them kindly by offering them food and drink. But then, approaching the ear of one of his most trusted servants, he said: “Have a lot of rice cooked and put a good dose of poison in the seasoning while you pour another dose of sleeping potion into the palm wine. As soon as they have finished eating and drinking, they will all be dead.”

Hubeghedeh invited the animals to sit down comfortably and asked them the reason for their sudden visit to heaven. “Well … we, great God of heaven – replied the parrot spokesman for all the others -, we have come looking for a girl, Taduba, daughter of a great and generous Limba tribal chief. She disappeared a few days ago and we heard that she had come up here. Perhaps she may now be among your people. “

“You are mistaken. No one can set foot here alone, without my permission or invitation”, said Hubeghedeh. “Of course – replied the parrot -, but we would be immensely grateful if you would allow us to look in among your people, wives and servants.”

“With pleasure – Hubeghedeh replied – I only hope you can find her.” While all the animals were searching, the fly heard Hubeghedeh order one of the servants: “Quickly, go and tell all my wives, including Taduba, to all dress alike and cover their faces with a veil. In this way, it will be very difficult for the animals to discover Taduba. I will tell them that they are dancers dancing in their honour.”

The fly detached itself from Hubeghedeh to follow the servant in charge of carrying the order received; it entered the harem with him and heard him say: “Listen to me well and attentively all of you: Hubeghedeh has given orders that you should all wear the same model of dress to entertain the guests with a special dance. He does not wish you to be recognised, so you will cover yourselves with a veil up to your eyes and always remain with your heads down as a sign of respect towards our guests. Do you understand? And you, Taduba, do you understand?”

The fly which flew over them and, as soon as the girl answered in the affirmative, landed gently on her and never left. When they were ready, they were ushered into the hall where Hubeghedeh awaited them with all his other animal guests.
The sky God, turning with a gentle smile to the animals, told them: “I imagine you are satisfied but rather tired. I will entertain you with a dance performed by my best dancers. Take a seat and relax.”

As soon as the wives entered the hall, the fly tried to detach itself from Taduba to be noticed by its friends, but in doing so it was also afraid of losing sight of her.
While Hubeghedeh was still talking to his guests and the wives stood waiting behind him, he quickly flew to his friends: “Be careful! Taduba is alive and is among the wives. I will return to her and stand on her head. Do not lose sight of me. As soon as I reach her and rest on her, grab her and flee.”  “Leave it to me,” replied the elephant confidently.

Before Hubeghedeh gave the order to start dancing, the fly came back to Taduba and landed on her. The elephant then emitted such a horrifying screech that it made the sky tremble and headed towards the girl, while all the other animals kept Hubeghedeh’s servants and guardians at bay.

The elephant came near Taduba, and as the fly whispered in her ear not to be afraid, for they had come to free her from Hubeghedeh, he took her gently with her trunk and, all together, they returned to earth. (Photo: 123rf)

Folktale from Birrwa-Limba people. Sierra Leone  

 

 

From Rumba to Sapeurs.

Walking around the neighbourhoods of Lemba or Matete in Kinshasa or Bacongo and Makélékélé in Brazzaville, you are immediately taken by music that instinctively invites you to join in the dancing.

In the evening in the many bars on the outskirts of the two capitals, people move to the rhythm of the rumba. A music that unites people from both sides. “The rumba is our most basic sound and the one with which we identify throughout the world”, declared Antoine Manda Tchebwe, director general of the International Centre of Bantas Civilizations, on the occasion of the international symposium on Congolese rumba which was held in March 2020 at the new Kinshasa Museum. For its part, the Joint Scientific Commission on Rumba, made up of the two Congos, in presenting the candidacy of Rumba to UNESCO as the Intangible Heritage of Humanity, declared in one of its documents that the rumba “is the expression par excellence of our passion for life, of our resilience. A travel and struggle companion in the political history of the two countries, it ended up becoming not only a space for celebration, but also a vector for mobilizing popular consciences”. On 14 December 2021, it was included by UNESCO in the list of the
Immortal Heritage of Humanity.

Saxophonist Julien Balona of Vox Africa in concert. On 14 December 2021 Rumba was included by UNESCO in the list of the Immortal Heritage of Humanity. Photo: Lwanga Kakule

Jeannot Bombenga, 89, a famous author and composer, after singing in Joseph Kabasele’s African Jazz founded the Vox Africa orchestra. Today he is the oldest Congolese musician, with the longest career both in Congo and with Ganga Edo, a musician from Congo-Brazza, who died in June 2020 at the age of 87. On several occasions, he shared the podium in Kinshasa and Brazzaville with Brazzavillian artists such as Edo Nganga, Franklin Boukaka and Célestin Kouka.
For him, the recognition of Congolese rumba as a world heritage is a great event: “It is a great joy for me and for the Congolese people of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo. It is the recognition of the work of our Congolese ancestors on both sides of the Atlantic, who were deported as slaves to America and yet managed to preserve their culture”. For Jeannot, Congolese music unites the people of Kinshasa and Brazzaville: “Even if politics sometimes seems to divide us, we are one people, the Congolese people, united by our rumba
and our culture”.

Two sapeurs in the street of Brazzaville. Photo: Marco Simoncelli

Ostentatious clothes
Since the 1920s, members of the Société des Ambianceurs et des Personnes Elegantes, or ‘sapeurs’, adepts of high fashion and extravagant clothing, have gracefully roamed the neighbourhoods of Brazzaville and Kinshasa. This clothing culture has created a following of young people who emulate their mentors. They often dress in ostentatious and expensive clothes, in step with fashion trends.

In Congo-Brazzaville, sapeurs have been elevated to the status of ‘cultural heritage’. Photo: Marco Simoncelli

The paradox is sometimes impressive: it is not uncommon to see these sapeurs strutting around the streets of these capitals with very expensive costumes under an oppressive sun, even when they live in slums and in very precarious housing.
In Congo-Brazzaville, in particular, sapeurs have been elevated to the status of ‘cultural heritage’ by President Denis Sassou Nguesso, allowing them to participate in public cultural events such as the Salon Africain de la Mode et de l’Artisanat. (Open Photo: 123rf) – (L.K.)

 

Africa. Insecurity and Fear.

If the current dynamics in the security field continue, and there are no signs of a reversal of the trend, there will be no shortage of crisis in Africa in 2024. Some countries will be particularly concerned, but insecurity will have consequences also in those nations that will be spared by terrorism and coups.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo will remain one of the major hotspots in Africa in 2024, due to the complex security framework of this country. The political leadership will struggle to cope with the rebel groups that operate in various provinces (first of all, North and South Kivu and Ituri), but also the ethnic militias that are spreading in the western zone while, at the same time, countering the moves of neighbour states (especially Rwanda) that interfere in DRC’s internal affairs and support armed groups.The natural riches of the country (gold, coltan, diamonds, copper, oil, etc.) will continue to tempt many who will exploit its instability to spoil it.

The decision to withdraw the UN Mission in DRC (MONUSCO), as by request of Kinshasa, will have dire consequences on the security of the northeastern provinces. File swm

The decision to withdraw the UN Mission in DRC (MONUSCO), as by request of Kinshasa, will have dire consequences on the security of the northeastern provinces (especially in North Kivu) in 2024. Even if it did show relevant flaws in its action, MONUSCO provided valuable military support to the government military and in a framework of rule of law. Their supposed inability pushed the local populations to protest, even violently, against the UN peacekeepers. But at this time, it seems not likely that Congolese troops, even if supported by those friendly countries and regional organizations, will neutralize (or, at least, reduce the lethality of) armed groups. For several years Ethiopia has been trying to become the leading country in the Horn of Africa. It is doing so both militarily (for example, sending troops to stabilize Somalia) and politically and economically.The project of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River is aimed at providing power for Ethiopia but also to neighbouring countries.

For several years Ethiopia has been trying to become the leading country in the Horn of Africa. 123rf

The peace agreement signed with Eritrea in 2018 seemed to open an era of peace and development for Ethiopia, but in 2020 the civil war between Addis Ababa and the Tigray minority political leadership erupted. A ceasefire was reached in November 2022, but the conflict is not over, and minor clashes still occur. Then the conflict in Amhara region erupted and it is ongoing. And the armed groups from the Oromo community must still reach an agreement with the government.
In 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed on several occasions the idea that his country is entitled to have access to the sea. A landlocked country, Ethiopia now uses Djibouti port as the main gateway to import and export goods. But Djibouti is an independent country. Ahmed’s words seem to imply that Ethiopia, by means of politics or by those wars, wants to get its own port.
The Eritrean port of Assab on the Red Sea may be in Ahmed’s mind, since it was part of Ethiopia until Eritrea became independent in 1993. But this desire could bring a new war with Eritrea, a war that could reignite the internal conflicts in Ethiopia. Due to these dynamics, in 2024 Ethiopia will be another major hotspot on the continent.

International players and threats
The African countries will have to cope with various levels of intensity with the terrorist threat. The Sahel is actually a sort of gigantic hotspot due to the extremist threat. This is the area of operation of diverse groups linked to Al Qaeda or to the Islamic State that fight with each other and with security forces.
Attacks will presumably take place in countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cameroon, but also (even if on a smaller scale) in the northern areas of Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire.On the east coast of Africa, the security forces of countries such as Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique will be confronted by jihadism. But insecurity could also reach areas that are considered as safe.

Jihadists in Mali. File swm

Another threat to security could be posed by coups. In 2023 two military coups took place in western and central Africa, one in Niger and one in Gabon. At this time, the putschists are still in command even if the international community in general and African countries in particular reacted in a hostile manner. Those who succeeded in overthrowing institutions in recent years are in power and this sets a negative example to those who are plotting to chase governments in Africa. Some countries are considered more at risk, due to factors such as an autocratic regime (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Congo) or the presence of leaders who are contested (such as Chad). But it is possible that that experienced and shrewd chief of state will keep on ruling their countries.
In 2024 Africa as a whole will still be the theatre of a turf war between world powers. China is arguably the major player on the continent, due to its massive economic engagement and its support for the ruling regimes, whoever they are, without strings attached in terms of respect for human rights or the rule of law.
In the last years, Moskow’s influence grew considerably on the continent, mainly at the expense of France. Its difficulties in Ukraine and partial isolation notwithstanding, Moskow in 2023 clearly stated that its involvement in Africa (in countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali) is strategic and therefore it will continue. Western powers do not operate in a coordinated way due to their rivalries and this creates friction. But they (and also players such as Turkey, the Gulf States and India) will still vie for power in Africa.

Andrea Carbonari
Security Analyst

 

Kinshasa-Brazzaville: Separated Twins.

The Congo River flows between Kinshasa and Brazzaville. The distance between the two capitals is so small that they seem like a single city. With a common history, they have not grown at the same rate.

At the end of the 19th century, the European powers divided the African continent between them. The Congo region was divided by two colonial powers: France on the north bank of the Congo River and Belgium on the south bank. Though their colonial strategies were different, their urban policies were very similar.

Henry Morton Stanley (L) and Pierre Savorgnan de Brazza (photo: Paul Nadar)

In 1880, the Italian-French Pierre Savorgnan de Brazza, sent from France, founded the city of Brazzaville. In 1881, the Anglo-American Henry Morton Stanley, sent by the Belgian King Leopold II, founded Léopoldville, the current city of Kinshasa, on the left bank,
just opposite Brazzaville.
According to the French historian Thierry Buron, the area was frequented by buffaloes, elephants, and hippos. It was a series of villages inhabited by fishermen in simple thatched mud huts, alongside bamboo huts.
The river marked the border between the Kongo and Teke kingdoms. Exchanges between the inhabitants of the two shores were facilitated by the fact that they spoke the same language, Lingala, and had the same habits and customs.

Segregated at birth
Leopoldville and Brazzaville were built on the principle of social and racial separation between whites and blacks. On the one hand, the European neighbourhoods housed the ruling class. There were factories, trading posts and residences for whites. On the other side, there were the black neighbourhoods, which were villages.
In general, these were floodplains with traditional markets. In Brazzaville, blacks settled in the villages surrounding the white neighbourhood, which the French sociologist Georges Balandier called “the black Brazzavilles”, particularly Poto Poto, Bacongo, and Makélékélé. It was a series of rudimentary villages with no services. They were separated from the white-inhabited ‘city’ by a sort of ‘no man’s land’.

The two closest capitals in the world are separated by just four kilometres of fresh water. File swm

According to Belgian historian Emile Capelle, not all blacks had the right to live in Leopoldville. In fact, to slow down the rural exodus, the Belgian colonists applied severe measures. The arrival and departure of villagers to the city were monitored. Blacks moving to the city had to provide proof of registration, a departure and exit permit, a residence permit, and a work permit. Although racial segregation has been abolished, stratification is visible in both cities, although today skin colour has been replaced by another criterion: wealth.
It is wealth that decides the neighbourhood in which to live.
Currently, in the old white neighbourhood, which is the municipality of Gombe in Kinshasa, and in that of Plateau in Brazzaville, live, with few exceptions, the people who direct the state apparatus, public and private companies and international organizations, the embassies,
and high-income people.

Kinshasa. People say: “Let’s go to the city. When they return home, they say: let’s go back to the village”. File swm

When the inhabitants of municipalities such as Lemba, Matete, Selembao, Bandalungwa, etc. go to La Gombe for work, to shop or for other administrative procedures, they say: “Tokei ville“, “let’s go to the city”. When they return home, they say: “Tozongi ndako” or “Tozongi mboka“. “Let’s go home” or, more simply, “let’s go back to the village”. (Open Photo: A young man sitting on the bank of the Congo River in Kinsuka. Kinshasa. Lwanga Kakule)
L.K.

 

Photo Gallery – Comboni Youth Movement at World Youth Day

Advocacy

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