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Youth Synod: “Young people are a treasure for our people”.

In view of the XV General Assembly of the Synod of Bishops, dedicated to young people, to be held next October 2018, many local churches are organizing activities and events with the youth. A few examples.

In Kenya, the diocese of Ngong has organised the Year of Youth whose theme is: “You are the Light of the world”. Mgr. John Oballa Owaa, Bishop of Ngong, who is also vice president of the Bishops’ Conference of Kenya, highlighted that “young people have enthusiasm, hope and are full of joy and their heart desires to know the truth.
The ideal of the young is to witness the Gospel in a more just and free society and the Holy Father wonders how they can announce to the world the good news of joy and how they can play an active role in being announcers of this Good News”.

“Young people need to see how Christ does things: this will enable them to learn how to discern, to know their own vocation, whether it is marriage or consecrated life or priesthood. Through faith they will be able to know how to make decisions and make wise choices for their lives”, he added.
During the Year the “instruments of evangelization” such as a Holy Bible, the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the Holy Rosary and a candle are ready to be used to accompany young people throughout the year.

The Bishop emphasised that “there are many places, opportunities and sources that young people can use to discern God’s plan for their lives”, such as studying the Bible, liturgy, participation in the activities of the Christian community and pilgrimage to the holy places. The hymn for the Year of Youth, in the Swahili language reads: “Simama imara katika imani, usiogope“, which means “Be strong in faith, do not be afraid”.

The leaders of the Latin American Youth Pastoral after having concluded the XIII Youth Pastoral Regional Meeting in Mexico-Central America in the city of San Jose, in Costa Rica, they released a note which states: “Young people are a treasure for our people, a wealth that generates joy, hope, and the ability to dream, to show sensitivity and solidarity for those who suffer. In these difficult times, God calls each one by name, so that he may be the protagonist in the transformation of these realities, a transformation in the light of the Gospel and of the Magisterium of the Church”.

Delegations from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama participated in the meeting with the aim of reflecting, in communion with the universal Church, on youth Pastoral in the region, in view of the Synod of Bishops dedicated to “Youth, Faith and Vocational Discernment”. “We are thrilled – the note continues – because the Church has set its sights on young people and promotes spaces for participation so that young people, with their dynamism, will know how to renew structures and pastoral action”.

The young Catholics of Pakistan express satisfaction and hope because the Catholic Church, through the Synod dedicated to young people, is interested in their future. Ashiknaz Khokhar, coordinator of a youth group, said: “I am pleased that the Church has given youth the opportunity to take part in a survey to let them know what they think and how the Church can help them grow in following of Christ. We are happy to hear that cardinals, bishops, priests, nuns and lay people are working to make the Synod of Bishops a truly participatory event that takes into consideration the various areas of the world. We in Pakistan are full of hope”.

In Papua New Guinea, the year 2018 has been proclaimed the “Year of Youth” by the local Church. It will be a precious opportunity to help young people understand, live and witness their faith in Christ Jesus.

Father Ambrose Pereira, a Salesian, Director of Youth Department in the Episcopal Conference of Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, said: “It was aimed at bringing together the youth animators in order to enable them to interact, network and reflect on the Synod dedicated to young people: this was the meaning of the various speeches that followed, which placed particular emphasis on living their Catholic life with the Eucharist and Sacrament of Reconciliation, helping the young to understand the need for committed love and preparing them for the Sacrament of Matrimony”.

Sr Aurora Yolanda Pugal, of the Sisters of St. Joseph, said : “A positive attitude is what young people need to learn to develop. Youth animators need to help young people move from their weakness and use their strengths to bring about the change they desire.

The Year of the Youth was opened in the Archdiocese of Tai Yuan, in the province of Shanxi, in the northern part of the People’s Republic of China. The general theme of the Year is “To seek God, to walk together in the universal Church”.
The Year of the young is divided into five stages, each marked by a verse of the Gospel: to search; vocational promotion; the knowledge of the Church; “Alleluia”, contest of sacred songs; the hope and the pilgrimage of young people.

Mgr. Paolo Meng Ning You, the diocesan bishop said: “Faith and vocation are two elements that are well connected. We must accompany the journey of the young and their vocational discernment in a secularised world. They are the future of the world and of the Church. We hope that, thanks to initiatives like this one, dedicated to young people, new vocations of young people who wish to give themselves to priesthood and to consecrated life can flourish. In this way we can continue to send missionaries to the communities that need them”.

Groups in the galaxy of terror.

Among the groups belonging to the radical Islamic galaxy, a fundamentally important role was played by the Al Qaeda of Islamic Maghreb (AQMI) which now controls the routes in the area of the Gulf of Guinea and the Maghreb leading to Europe.

Among the criminal organisations most involved in business with the Islamic terrorist groups of western Africa is the Mexican Sinaloa cartel which, in league with its Colombian colleagues, finances international Jihadism with its income. According to the US State Department there are at least 51 groups described as terrorists, almost half of them (as many as 20, including Al Qaeda in the Maghreb and Hezbollah in Lebanon) are now bound up with Colombian and Mexican drug traffickers.

Al Qaeda is said to be in control of trafficking in the region of Sahel in Western Africa while Hezbollah is said to be involved in illicit cocaine, synthetic drugs and money-laundering between South America, West Africa, Europe and the Middle East. According to DEA experts, the appearance of this important Mexican cartel in the western African illicit drugs market is due mainly to an increase in consumption in Europe, the Middle East and in Africa, markets that have allowed the mafias to make up for the collapse of cocaine consumption in the United States which, of course, also led to the collapse of cocaine prices. The DEA report also shows that the entry of the Sinaloa cartel into Africa was facilitated by the Colombians who acted as intermediaries (some of whom were members of the FARC ‘Armed Colombian Revolutionary Forces’), to whom we must add other intermediaries defined in the report as ‘shadow facilitators’. Such people, already known for their international criminal activities, offer drug traffickers and terrorists such services as money-laundering, smuggling, forgery and the control of the routes along which drugs and arms are moved. Their role is so much in demand that many drug-trafficking and terrorist organisations share the services of the same shadow facilitator and the capture of one of them would be a severe blow to international crime.

Concerning the web of affairs related to the illicit trade in drugs that connects crime and groups in the galaxy of terror, the data furnished by the CITCO, ‘Intelligence Centre for Terrorism and Organised Crime’, an organisation of the Spanish government, have much to say: almost 20% of the terrorists in prison have previous convictions connected to drug trafficking and the forging of documents. Many of them worked between Ceuta and Melilla, the gateway to Europe from North Africa. The CITCO reports also show that, in the areas in question, there are active fundamentalist groups that are financing the Islamic State by drug trafficking, arms smuggling and human trafficking. It also seems that these new alliances have further increased traffic in cocaine and marijuana along the border with a corresponding increase in exchanges in recent times.
The figures published by the Russian Federal Agency for the control of drug trafficking (FSKN) indicate that drug trafficking is second only to oil as a source of funds for Islamic State.
In particular, sales of heroin, derived from opium produced in Afghanistan, create an income of more than a billion each year for ISIS.
According to the Russian figures, it seems that more than half the heroin sold in Europe now bears a Jihadist trademark, a fact reflected in the continual increase in Afghan plantations that this year have produced an excellent harvest. The same data give rise to an estimated Isis income from drugs of around a billion dollars per year, and a future income of 50 billion dollars for the Islamic State.

It is worth noting that instability in Iraq and Syria guarantee a secure and undisturbed passage for drugs sent from Central Asia to the European market, marginalising the Baltic route. Syria, in particular, besides being the location of an undisturbed route for different traffickers, has become the ideal centre for the production of synthetic drugs as it is a relatively industrialised country with numerous installations for pharmaceutical production present in the war zone that were immediately converted into laboratories for the production of amphetamines. This is a phenomenon that has produced a war economy that serves to finance the various Shiite and Sunni factions present in the country. The Syrian production of such drugs is largely absorbed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar where, in recent years, there has been a surprising increase in the consumption of such substances due to the fact that the amphetamines, even if they are severely prohibited by Islamic law, are used where there are restrictions on alcohol and natural drugs. Captagon is the most widely used substance among Sunni youth.
According to figures provided by various intelligence centres, the phenomenon being studied is growing and there is no doubt that it has become more deeply rooted in those areas (the Middle East, Maghreb, Sahel, Afghanistan and Central Asia) which, ruined by the situation, have precipitated into chaos favouring the proliferation of such situations.(F.R.)

SIPRI. World Military Expenditure Up.

Total world military expenditure rose to $1,739 billion in 2017, a marginal increase of 1.1% in real terms from 2016,
according to new figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

After 13 consecutive years of increases from 1999 to 2011 and relatively unchanged spending from 2012 to 2016, total global military expenditure rose again in 2017. Military spending in 2017 represented 2.2% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) or $230 per person. “The increases in world military expenditure in recent years have been largely due to the substantial growth in spending by countries in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East, such as China, India and Saudi Arabia”, said Dr Nan Tian, Researcher with the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure (AMEX) programme. “At the global level, the weight of military spending is clearly shifting away from the Euro-Atlantic region”.

Military expenditure in Asia and Oceania rose for the 29th successive year. China, the second largest spender globally, increased its military spending by 5.6% to $228 billion in 2017. China’s spending as a share of world military expenditure has risen from 5.8% in 2008 to 13% in 2017. India spent $63.9 billion on its military in 2017, an increase of 5.5% compared with 2016, while South Korea’s spending, at $39.2 billion, rose by 1.7% between 2016 and 2017.
“Tensions between China and many of its neighbours continue to drive the growth in military spending in Asia”, said Siemon Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI AMEX programme.
At $66.3 billion, Russia’s military spending in 2017 was 20% lower than in 2016, the first annual decrease since 1998. “Military modernization remains a priority in Russia, but the military budget has been restricted by economic problems that the country has experienced since 2014”, said Siemon Wezeman.Driven, in part, by the perception of a growing threat from Russia, military spending in both Central and Western Europe increased in 2017, by 12 and 1.7%, respectively. Many European states are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and, within that framework, have agreed to increase their military spending. Total military spending by all 29 NATO members was $900 billion in 2017, accounting for 52% of world spending.

Military expenditure in the Middle East rose by 6.2% in 2017. Spending by Saudi Arabia increased by 9.2% in 2017 following a fall in 2016. With spending of $69.4 billion, Saudi Arabia had the third highest military expenditure in the world in 2017. Iran (19%) and Iraq (22%) also recorded significant increases in military spending in 2017.
“Despite low oil prices, armed conflict and rivalries throughout the Middle East are driving the rise in military spending in the region”, said Pieter Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI AMEX programme. In 2017 military expenditure as a share of GDP (known as the ‘military burden’) was highest in the Middle East, at 5.2%. No other region in the world allocated more than 1.8% of GDP to military spending.

The United States continues to have the highest military expenditure in the world. In 2017 the USA spent more on its military than the next seven highest-spending countries combined. At $610 billion, US military spending was unchanged between 2016 and 2017. “The downward trend in US military spending that started in 2010 has come to an end”, said Aude Fleurant, of the SIPRI AMEX programme. “US military spending in 2018 is set to rise significantly to support increases in military personnel and the modernization of conventional and nuclear weapons”.

African military spending was down

According to a report by SIPRI, African military spending was down by 0.5% to an estimated $42.6 billion in 2017, or 2.5% of global military spending. “This continued the downward trend from the post-Cold War peak reached in 2014, although the decrease tapered off in 2017. Despite three consecutive years of decreases, military expenditure in Africa was still 28% higher in 2017 than in 2008”, SIPRI noted.
Military spending in North Africa fell by 1.9% between 2016 and 2017 to an estimated $21.1 billion. This was the first annual decrease in military spending in the subregion since 2006. Nonetheless, spending in 2017 was 105% higher than in 2008.
Algeria, Africa’s largest spender, decreased its military expenditure by 5.2% between 2016 and 2017 to $10.1 billion. This was the first annual decrease in its military spending since 2003 and only the second annual decrease since 1995, SIPRI reports. “The decline in Algeria’s military expenditure in 2017 was probably related to low oil and gas revenues in recent years”.

According to SIPRI, military expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017 amounted to $21.6 billion, up 0.9% from 2016 but 6.8% lower than in 2008. “A substantial surge in Sudan’s military expenditure in 2017 (by 35 % to $4.4 billion) – mainly due to intensified fighting between the Sudanese Government and rebels – drove the upward trend, but this was partly counteracted by decreases by three of the four largest spenders in the subregion: Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Principal of those was the continued drop in Angola’s military expenditure (by 16%). While Angola was the largest military spender in sub-Saharan Africa in 2014 with 26% of the subregional total, it fell to third in 2017 (with 14% of the total), behind Sudan and South Africa.

“Nigeria’s military expenditure fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2017, by 4.2% to $1.6 billion, despite continued military operations against Boko Haram. Military spending in South Africa, the second largest spender in sub-Saharan Africa, has stabilized at around $3.6 billion per annum since 2012. Its military spending decreased marginally in 2017, by 1.9%”, SIPRI said.
There were also notable cuts in military spending in 2017 in South Sudan (–56 %), Chad (–33 %), Mozambique (–21 %) and Côte d’Ivoire (–19%). The decline in Côte d’Ivoire’s military spending, the first annual decrease since 2013, was the result of the sharp drop in world prices for cocoa, the country’s main export. In South Sudan, despite the ongoing conflict, the worsening economic conditions led to further reductions in military spending.(S.L.)

Drug Trafficking and Terrorism.

Friday, 1 June 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

Drug trafficking is a global business. It is finding its way ever more perniciously into growing economies, corrupting and destabilising them while making them the target of the leading extra-regional powers, altering the geopolitical equilibrium of the future.

This is evident when we consider drug trafficking as a new form of geopolitical power or, rather, of transnational geo-economic power that is capable of substantially affecting both the economic and political spheres by harming the social fabric and generating a dangerous, vicious circle in which the illicit economy becomes indispensable to that of the nation. Such a situation, which increases the phenomenon of ‘narco-states’, ‘narcocracies’ or, even worse, ‘narco-democracies’, is capable of infecting not only the economy of developing but also those of developed countries, polluting the institutions and structures of civil society, the independence of governments and financial institutions.

To understand the nature of the phenomenon, it suffices to realise that the illegal cocaine business is worth around 500 billion dollars annually and that the overall criminal economy amounts to around 3% of Gross Worldwide Production.
The ‘ndrangheta’ – the most powerful Italian mafia – is, at this moment in time, seen as one of the most powerful criminal organisations in the world, as well as being the main and undisputed leader in Latin America.
That area, together with the Sahel,Afghanistan and Central Asia, represents one of the main centres for the production and distribution of narcotics that have as their privileged destinations the European,United States,Russian and Chinese markets. In this context are the estimates provided by the United Nations which show that more than 200 million people (around 5% of the world population) are habitual users of heroin, cocaine and/or synthetic drugs.

UN estimates echo those of the UNOD (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) that show that consumers may have increased in recent years by as much as 50% only among the 166 members of the organisation. This tendency started to develop in the year 2000 and, as the Argentinian political expert, Norberto Emmerich, author of the book Geopolitica Y Narcotraffico, rightly states, it is simply the result of the expansion of global capitalism that requires the deregulation of many economic activities without taking into account the negative consequences of this policy.
In fact, globalisation is seriously casting doubt on the cardinal principles that form the basis of the nation state, the first among all the fruits of the so-called ‘state sovereignty’, transversely conditioned today more than ever before. State authority has been placed in a position where it must cede large portions of its authority and responsibility in areas that were traditionally within its ambit and so become merely the administrator and executor of decisions taken by those transnational bodies whose desire for power, orientations,identities and networks do not always appear to coincide with national interests but, on the contrary, often conflict with them.

The ambit in which this tendency has imposed itself are many. However, those most emblematic are the ones that concern monetary and foreign policies, both of which are fundamental to economic and commercial relations and reports that determine the well-being of a people. The picture that emerges is one of a weak state, subject to the decisions of the transnational market, a state whose weakness is reflected in its (lack of) control of criminal activity which, in such a system, finds it easier to expand, thus acquiring, in effect, a transnational character. Those who, like the drug traffickers, are able to produce riches swiftly, also know how to bring the correct pressures to bear in order to affect the laws and codes of the market to their own advantage. As a result, the power vacuum created by the absence of legality is, as is well known, occupied by the mafias which obtain the power to impose their own will on the already weakened state with its ineffective arms and no great desire to defend itself. (F.R.)

Territory control.

Friday, 1 June 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

The colossal and internationally important business of drug trafficking, now run by criminals of all races, is also participated in by various factions of terrorist groups and guerrillas.

According to data provided by the DEA (Drugs Enforcement Agency) entitled ‘Combating organised international crime’, it emerges that the ties between drug trafficking and terrorism continue to grow (even if this is nothing new), to the extent that both realities are superimposed, one on the other, in some areas.
The connection between these two subjects, apparently far removed from each other by their different strategic objectives and ideological visions, lies mainly in satisfying mutual needs. Guerrilla and terrorist groups, being well set up in the territories, guarantee traffickers the freedom required to operate within those territories securely and undisturbed. Since they are anti-system forces, they are also capable, thanks to their military equipment, to counter police operations. This is an ideal situation for the traffickers who, while paying for such services with large sums of money, work undisturbed and employ their people exclusively in operations connected with peddling.

Apart from benefiting from outsourcing the security services, drug traffickers may also avail of logistic support that enables them to set up laboratories within those territories where such organisations represent the sole valid interlocutor. Drug proceeds allow terrorist organisations to finance their own undertakings; in this regard, the Taliban are one of the more important objects of study. At the end of the nineties, drugs were considered by the Afghan Jihadists to be contrary to Islamic principles, but soon the demands of the war changed this conviction to the extent that drug trafficking was seen as the main economic activity capable of meeting the needs of the war economy.
Consequently, following the American invasion, the Taliban moved from simply controlling the production of opium to administering the whole process. The death of Mullah Omar in 2013 marked a turning point in this regard since the death of such a figure brought about the fall of the only remaining resistance to such a modus operandi. After that date, the trafficking in narcotics became so necessary within the movement as to become institutionalised.

Drugs produced in Afghanistan reach Europe from three important directions: the Northern route; the Southern route and the Western route. The Northern route easily crosses Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan), and then moves towards Europe both across Kazakhstan and Russia and across the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Southern route transits Pakistan through the frontier of Balukistan. From there it reaches China and, by sea or air, is sent to the most varied of destinations (Africa, Europa, United States and Oceania). Lastly, the Western route passes through Iran, then towards Turkey and from there, going on through the Balkan States, it reaches Europe.
The evolution within the Taliban is of interest also to other guerrilla and terrorist groups that are undergoing a transformation from within with combatants who become drug traffickers, thus creating new autonomous cartels. This allows them to administer the whole process and gain greater profits. This mingling that has taken place in some areas makes it difficult to see a clear distinction between the two realities to the extent that a new reality is identified and this new phenomenon has been given the name of ‘narco-terrorism’. (F.R.)

Kyrgyzstan. A Geopolitical Pivot.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

Kyrgyzstan merits to be called a ‘geopolitical pivot’. It is a territory that, due to its geographic characteristics, occupies a central position in super-power rivalry.

A landlocked country, it is prevalently mountainous and Tian Shan Range occupies 65% of its territory. To the east it borders on the Chinese province of Xinjiang, a highly strategic location for Peking, to the north of Kazakhstan. To the east it borders on Uzbekistan and to the south it shares a border with Tajikistan. The population is around five million – of whom 75% are Moslem and 20% Orthodox – composed of many ethnic groups including the Kyrgyz (around 64.7% and descendants of the tribes that settled the Tian Shan in ancient times); the Uzbeks (14.5%); the Russians (12.5%); and various other groups, many numerically small, such as: Uighurs, Dungun’s, Ukrainians, Tartars and even Germans whose ancestors were deported during the second world war from the Polish regions of Ukraine conquered by the Soviet Union.

Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in central Asia with over 40% of the population living below the poverty line. Its economy is mainly tied to a pastoral agricultural system and its mineral deposits such as gold, uranium, oil and antimony. It also has large reserves of coal (estimated at 2.5 billion tons), mostly in the area of Kara-Keche, in the north of the country.
The country, with its capital Bishkek (situated in the plain near the border with Kazakhstan), gained independence from the Soviet Union in August 1991 with, apparently, a policy reform, in the person of the President Asker Okayed, who favoured a gradual change to liberalism that was obviously unsuited to the weak state apparatus and the clan-based social structure, with power in the hands of the leaders.
It also experienced further problems due to the 1993 arrival of refugees from civil war-torn Tajikistan, and from Afghanistan where the Taliban had taken power.
In order to handle these problems, Okayed followed an authoritarian path, due in part to the support he received from the USA which was then involved in the Afghan theatre and received in exchange the concession of airspace and permission to open a base at Manas (closed by the USA in 2014).In 2005, due to the high level of corruption, the conditions of extreme poverty and the division between the industrialised north and the impoverished south, even today a cause of instability, Kyrgyzstan became the stage for violent protest demonstrations that began after the parliamentary elections on 27 February, 2005 that gave rise to the ‘Tulip revolution’.

The popular uprising compelled President Askar Akayev to resign and seek refuge in the Kirghizstan embassy in Moscow. This was one of the elements that brought analysts to ask whether Moscow was behind these events in order to protect its own territory and respond to the ‘coloured revolutions’ instigated by Washington in Georgia in 2003 and in Ukraine in 2004. However, the hypothesis was shown to be unfounded when the ‘Tulip revolution’ chose another pro-American president, Bakiyev, who, through a popular revolt, was dethroned in 2010 unjustly accused of having created a despotic and family regime that suppressed all forms of opposition.In 2010 Roza Outnbayeva, leader of the protests, took power and set up a provisional government to reorganise the country. After a few months, an important referendum was held that transformed the country into a parliamentary republic, increased the powers of the prime minister and tried to guarantee internal cohesion and pacification, despite the famous clashes that took place in the city of Osh, between the Kyrgyz and the Uzbeks.The 2011 presidential elections conferred the presidency on Almazbek Atambayev, an exponent of the social democrat party who remained in power until October 2017. Unlike his predecessors, Almazbek Atambayev showed that, in foreign policy, he was very close to Moscow to which he granted control of the air base at Kant until 2032, and joined the Eurasian Economic Union, something that caused discontent in China.

The recent elections in October 2017 saw the election, at the second poll and with 55% of the votes, of Sooronbai Jeenbekov, the candidate supported by his predecessor president Atambayev who did not stand due to the mandate rules of the constitution. When speaking of the 2017 elections, it is important to emphasise that, unlike what happens in other places in central Asia, in Kyrgyzstan the competition for election is real, involving different political agents and marking a positive achievement for a country that, only in recent years, has entered the democratic system and that, since independence, has had to deal with the lack of cohesion among the various minorities that increased an underlying tendency to conflict in some areas – such as that of the Fergana Valley, divided between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – which even today represents a dangerous threat to the country.

The problem of national cohesion is not the only problem in internal security; it is also bound up with the even more pernicious problem of the Islamic threat which, even if in Kyrgyzstan it has established itself in a less important way with respect to its neighbouring countries, due partly to the repressive tactics used by the local authorities, its development is not to be excluded. In fact, according to experts, the country has all the characteristics – ethnic divisions, widespread poverty, and proximity to countries with radical groups – that allow for the sudden spread of that threat.

We must also add that the Islamist organisations present in the country run the arms and drugs trades in collaboration with local organised crime and the corrupt sections of the authorities, making Kyrgyzstan a preferred transit junction for opium products (produced partly in the country but mostly from Afghanistan) destined for the Russian and European market. The intertwining of criminality with corrupt sections of the authorities, together with the porosity of its borders and the morphology of the terrain, render ineffective the counter-measures employed by the state.
Again, we must not underestimate the environmental problem caused by the wide use of chemicals in agriculture and the bad management of water resources. In reference to the latter, it is to be underlined that the environmental problems contribute to the increase of poverty of entire populations, exposing them to the call to terrorism and religious fanaticism. (F.R.)

Burundi. The May referendum: a “death warrant” for the Peace Agreement.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

According to the opposition, the referendum would be a “death warrant” for the 2000 Arusha Peace Agreement and increase the risk of a civil war.

The constitutional referendum scheduled for the next 17 May could prolong President Pierre Nkurunziza’s rule until 2034.
If accepted by the electorate, those constitutional changes would enable the head of state who has served already three terms since 2005 to stand for two further ones from 2020.
The proposed changes would also reintroduce the post of Prime Minister and reduce the number of Vice-Presidents from two to one. They also involve increasing the presidential term from five to seven years but would restrict the President to two consecutive terms. The changes would also reduce the parliamentary majority required to pass legislation. Key provisions of the Arusha Agreement which meant to protect ethnic or political minorities, such as the need of two thirds or three quarters majorities for certain decisions will be dropped. Yet, the new constitution would not change the 60% quota of Hutus and the 40% quota of Tutsis and the minimum of 30% quota of women in the government and the parliament. Likewise, the 50% ethnic parity between the Hutu majority and the Tutsi minority in the army and in the police would remainted untouched.

For the opposition such reforms are a “death warrant” for the Arusha Peace Agreement signed in 2000 under the auspices of the late South African President Nelson Mandela, which put an end to a civil war which claimed more than 300,000 lives between 1993 and 2006. The Arusha Agreement which is the primary source of inspiration of the current constitution clearly stipulates indeed that no president can serve more than two terms. And it was Nkurunziza’s interpretation of the constitution, arguing that he could serve three terms because his first one in 2005 was just a parliamentary appointment, not an election result that sparked in April 2015 the current political crisis.
Besides, the referendum would consolidate the nearly sectarian rule of the President whose wife, Denise, is the leader of the Church of the Rock. This evangelical church, according to the French political scientist Thierry Vircoulon, has become the antechamber of the presidential power. All government members have joined this church whose reverends teach that Nkurunziza was chosen by God to become president. Reverend Denise Nkurunziza is blaming in her sermons those who “pray badly”. «God is on our side. Our enemy will not achieve anything since the one who is fighting me is fighting God”, declared her husband at a congress of the ruling CNDD-FDD party in June 2016.

Nkurunziza has also been promoted as “Supreme Everlasting Guide” by the CNDD-FDD on the last 11 March in terms which compare with the North Korean cult of personality. No wonder that his critics call him ironically “his majesty Nkurunziza 1^st^”.But those who fail to pay they respect to the “majesty” get in trouble. Two local officials from the northern town of Kiremba were charged with “conspiracy against the president” in early March, after players from the Kiremba football team roughed the President, during a match against his “Alleluiah” team.
Observers predict that the “yes” will likely win with an overwhelming majority and that the 50 percent participation rate needed to validate its results will be reached. The official campaign will only start two weeks before the vote. But while the President, his wife and the ministers incite citizens to participate, the “no” supporters are not allowed to campaign. A climate of intimidation is prevailing all over the country, tells SouthWorld an executive of the opposition coalition National Council for the Respect of the Arusha Agreement (CNARED. Over the last weeks, dozens of opposition militants have been arrested. According to CNARED sources, the President even warned in a recent speech in Cibitoke that those who oppose the referendum, would be given “a passport for the hereafter”. Since the April 2015 revolt against Nkurunziza’s wish to run for an unconstitutional third term, the repression has been harsh. “Today nobody dares to move a finger in Burundi. The methods are even crueler than the mere assassination of opponents. Corpses are mutilated. The aim is to deprive the defunct from a decent death, even in the hereafter he will lack something. And the corpses are ostensibly exposed as deterrents. This is extremely disturbing in such a religious society”, tells SouthWorld a CNARED source on conditions of anonymity.

The opposition is also blaming the regime for the forced enlistment of voters. But the division of the opposition plays as well in Nkurunziza’s favour. The vice president of the Burundian Democratic Front (Frodebu) Léonce Ngendakumana campaigns for the “no”, whereas the party leader Frédéric Bamvuginyiumvira campaigns for the boycott as most of the CNARED leaders, because he considers that the competition is unfair.
Attempts to promote a dialogue between the government and the opposition have been ignored by the authorities. The government has rejected the call from the Roman Catholic bishops’ conference in September 2017 for the resumption of peace talks with CNARED. As a result, the relations have become quite tense with the government after the Catholic Church condemned the “diabolical doctrines” spread by “hypocritical liers”, of some of these evangelical churches, which support the regime. CNARED urged the international community to take initiative to prevent the referendum that threatens to dismantle the Arusha Peace Agreement. On the last 8 January, CNARED warned against the risk of a resumption of the civil war and of the rejection of the dialogue by Nkurunziza which could legitimate the activities of armed groups such as the FNL, the RED-TABARA and the FBP which fight for the return of the constitutional legality. CNARED also urged the Burundian army to stand up and defend the Arusha Peace Agreement and the Constitution. Eventually, the opposition coalition urged The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) to accelerate prosecutions against the authors of crimes against humanity in Burundi.

Yet, the armed resistance is in disarray. Two leaders of the rebel Forces populaires du Burundi (FPB), Jérémie Ntiranyibagira and Edward Nshimirimana were arrested in Tanzania and extradited to Burundi on the 22 October 2017. Burundi left the ICC on the 27 October 2017, after that the ICC authorised the Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda to open an inquiry for war crimes or crimes against humanity committed since the beginning of the crisis in April 2015.
According to the Prosecutor, 1,200 persons were killed, thousands were illegally detained, thousands were tortured.and hundreds of disappearances have occurred between April 2015 and May 2017, 413,490 people sought asylum in the neighbouring countries.
EU’s sanctions including visa bans and assets freeze against some Burundian officials and the suspension of the bilateral cooperation with the government, do not impress either Peter Nkurunziza who relies on other partners. China will continue its support to Burundi told the press in May 2017 the Chinese vice-president Li Yuanchao during a visit to Bujumbura, arguing that Beijing does respect Burundi’s sovereignty. China which is coveting Burundian nickel and rare earth resources is namely financing a presidential palace, roads, schools and a 15 MW hydroelectric dam, on top of budget support and food aid. “No foreign country seems ready to get involved military to prevent Burundi to become an even harder dictatorship”, deplores SouthWorld an observer.
Meanwhile, the country is falling into the abyss, with a 65% unemployment rate among the youth, according to the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres. Three out of the eleven million Burundians relie on food aid for their survival owing to bad crops and the consequences of the political crisis. (F.M.)

DR Congo. The Commitment of the Church to the People.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

A sound formation, pastoral competence, a political vision and single-mindedness are the distinctive traits of Mons. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the new coadjutor bishop of Kinshasa.

The appointment of Mons. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu as coadjutor Archbishop of Kinshasa alongside Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo, resulted from the desre of Pope Francis to lend them his support in facing the extraordinary challenges facing Congolese Catholics, victims of a repressive power which, since 31 December 2017, has had in its sights the peaceful marches called for by lay Catholics. A few days after his appointment, speaking with journalists, Mons. Fridolin described the situation, strongly expressing the voice of the Church.

First of all he assured the Christian community that the episcopate is “united and indivisible”, contrary to what the regime propaganda insinuated. He then reaffirmed his determination to support the people of DR Congo at present committed to respect for the Constitution and the rule of law through the implementation of the agreement reached on 31 December 2016 between the majority and the opposition, mediated by the Episcopal Conference. The agreement provides for a transition phase leading to elections instead of those planned for last December and now re-scheduled for December 2018.
The Coadjutor Bishop clearly stated that the ban on demonstrations is against the Constitution: “We are prophets – he insisted – and the role of the prophet is to alert the people when there is danger on the horizon ». He even mentioned some technical questions saying, for example, that he was against electronic voting as this would open the way for post-election disputes since there is no agreement among the political classes on the use of this means “.

This is a sign that the Vatican not only wants to show its support for Cardinal Monsengwo but also wishes to make it obvious that to the Kabila government that this 58 year-old bishop will be the next Archbishop of Kinshasa. To put it briefly, those in power should have no illusions about a change of policy after the Cardinal has completed his mandate. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu belongs to the Capuchin Friars Minor Order. He was ordained priest in 1988 and has a sound formation with great sensitivity towards human rights. Having qualified in moral theology at the Alphonsian Academy in Rome, he taught this subject for some years at Kinshasa Catholic University. He was Bishop of the diocese of Bokungu-Ikela from 6 March 2005 and was then made Archbishop of Mbandaka-Bikoro on 12 December 2016. As Vice-President of the Commission for Justice and Peace of the Congolese Episcopal Conference, he had a prominent role in the negotiations leading to the St. Sylvester Agreement in 2016.

With reference to the candidature of President Joseph Kabila, the new Archbishop is extremely clear: “It is a question which ought not even be asked. The Constitution is clear and it does not allow a third mandate. The St. Sylvester Agreement is also clear. I do not see how we can talk of a new candidature. It is true that the President himself has never spoken out clearly, despite the insistence of the international community and also of the Episcopal Conference. However, I do not think it is important to insist on this problem; we should be more concerned with knowing if and how the presidential majority is preparing for the elections and whether it has another person in mind.. He is also very critical of the opposition. “The opposition is divided, even fragmented. But this is part of the regime’s strategy: divide to stay in power”.

Kabila has succeeded in atomizing the opposition which is no longer a dynamic force. They are scattered in small pieces that do not succeed in agreeing either on a programme or a candidate.”
In conclusion Mons. Fridolin Ambongo says “The critical moment will be next June when, according to the electoral calendar, the list of candidates will be published. We will then see what happens and who it will be and especially we will see whether Kabila will be a candidate or not. It will show whether the elections will really take place “. (F.M.)

Tajikistan. Great Power Interests.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

Tajikistan, situated at the heart of central Asia, was a transit area crossed by caravan trails between Europe and China.

The country borders Afghanistan to the south; China to the east (the Xinjiang region); Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to the north and again Uzbekistan to the west. The territory is mostly mountainous, closed between the Turkestan Range, the Zaravshan Mountains and the Gissar and the Pamir Ranges.
The inhabitants number 8.73 million of whom 96.7% are Moslem with two thirds belonging to the Tajik ethnic group (Persian-speaking); there are also small, poorly integrated minorities within the fabric of the state: Uzbeks (25.9% located to the north in the Fergana Valley), Russians (3.5%), Tartars and Kyrgyz. There are also about a thousand Afghan refugees present and minorities of Tajiks are to be found in neighbouring countries (Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan etc.).

The majority of the population live in the western valleys, in the autonomous province of Gorno-Badakhshan. The cities are somewhat small and are together home to only a quarter of the Tajiks. The rest of the people live in the countryside. The main centres are the capital Dushambe that was developed as a city only in the Soviet era, and Hudsand, an ancient city on the Silk Road, today populated mainly by Uzbeks.After achieving independence in 1991, Tajikistan went through a civil war that ended in 1997 and saw a struggle between factions following different ideologies (one was Islamic and the other a westernised ideology that was pro-Russian but also open to the USA).
During those years, the country was the main cause of instability in the entire region with armed Islamic groups intertwined in common anti-government action. The end of the clashes was sanctioned in Moscow in 1997 with a peace agreement negotiated under the auspices of the UN, the OSCE, Russia and Iran. The agreement created a sound basis for collaboration with Russia.

The civil war left the country in a disastrous state both economically and institutionally – destroyed by weakness and corruption. Government was set up with two houses of parliament made up of a representative Council and a National Council, both dominated by the Popular Democratic Party with Emomali Rahmon, the head of state since 1994, as its leader.Countering the terrorist threat is the number one priority for the government which, in recent years, launched intransigent policies aimed at preventing an Islamic presence in civil and political life and even the prohibition of long beards for men and the veil for women – thus giving rise to protests by Moslems present in Tajikistan and raising the level of a conflict that often broke out in clashes and protests.

In fact, Tajikistan is the country that is seeing an incredible increase on its territory of radical groups. From data received from the Tajik internal ministry, a worrying situation seems to emerge with estimates of around 1,200 Tajiks joining Daesh to fight in Syria and Iraq. At the same time, according to the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, in 2016, Tajikistan had the highest number (as many as 27) of suicide bombers involved in terrorist attacks worldwide, making it a reserve for Islamic State recruiting which in 2015 had succeeded in recruiting the commander of the Tajik Special forces, Colonel Gulmurod Halimov who had received years of training by the USA forces. Hamilov took over the leadership of the Islamic State in Central Asia and constitutes in himself a great threat due both to his military capacity and his leadership qualities that make it easy for him to gain recruits. The government point of view is confirmed in a report by the Central Bank of Tajikistan which shows the flow of finance to militias in the country or of Tajik origin, underlining especially the role of the Islamic rebirth Party.

A further priority of the government is the struggle against poverty given that the economy, apart from illicit trafficking, is greatly dependent on money sent home from abroad, 90% of which comes from Russia with more than a million Tajik inhabitants.
Aluminium, cotton and cereals are among the main products of the country. Nevertheless, it is necessary to bear in mind the considerable mining potential (gold, silver, strontium, zinc and a small quantity of coal, tungsten and uranium) and the important water resources that China intends to develop with a series of infrastructure projects. In this regard, on 25 February 2015, the Tajik parliament ratified an agreement between the government and the Chinese Tajik-Sino Mining company, centred upon the development of the Zarnisori Shimoli mineral deposits, located in the administrative region of Sughd, in the north-east of the country. This is a Chinese strategy that involves the interests of the Tajik government that aims at escaping from political and economic isolation. It must also be pointed out that China is making interest-free loans to the Tajik companies employed in the urban up-grading projects and those in the transport sector.

Some help was also given to the economy of the country by the USA that, for strategic reasons connected with the Afghan conflict, launched a series of humanitarian programmes and projects aimed at stimulating market reforms. To date, however, the partnership with the USA is more a matter of form than substance. In this regard we can see how Tajikistan joined the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism, network that involves Pakistan, China, Iran and Afghanistan that intends ‘To safeguard the principles and international norms regarding the maintenance of peace and security, the mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-aggression and non-interference in the internal policies of member states’.
Moscow plays an important role in the security of the country, making itself the major guarantor of the security of Tajikistan which will allow a motorised division of the Russian army – already present since the early nineties – deployed along the Afghan-Tajik border. This involves seven thousand men with the task of training the local authorities and to counter drug smuggling and terrorism. As well as that, Russia has set aside about one billion dollars to reinforce equipment in its three Tajik bases. The territorial disputes with Uzbekistan and the republic of Kyrgyzstan over the fertile and strategic Fergana Valley, represents a further threat to internal security and regional equilibrium.

Filippo Romeo

FIFA World Cup/Africa. The Road to Russia.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

The 2018 FIFA World Cup to be held in Russia will be the greatest sporting show on earth this year. Between 14 June to 15 July, 32 team will make billions of people dream, enjoy and weep. Africa will be represented by five nations.

Because of the political and military involvement in different areas around the world, several groups and politicians have put Russia as World Cup host in serious question. But the implication of Russia in sport’s systematic doping affairs has also mattered. However, football fans say that each and every World Cup host nation has faced questions about their suitability to stage one of the biggest and most prestigious sport events. Russia not less so.
Since December 2010, when Russia was allocated the 2018 tournament, the government in Moscow has prepared for the show this summer to impress the world. And president Putin likes the idea of the show.

Thirteen teams from Europe, five from Africa, five from South America, five from Asia (including Australia) and three from North and Central America will set the way for the this year’s greatest sporting show on earth. FIFA has selected 36 referees from all over the world for the World Cup.The games will be played in 12 venues in the 11 host cities spread across the country – from the border with Asia in the East to a western outpost that is closer to Berlin than it is to Moscow. Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow (81,000 capacity) will be the main World Cup central venue. The Stadium will host the opening game (14 June, Russia v Saudi Arabia), three other group matches, a semi-final and the final itself. The final of the 2014 competition in Brazil was watched by 1.01 billion people live, with the entire competition watched by over three billion viewers. The numbers are expected to rise even higher this year.

African teams

Since October 2015, 40 African teams have played in 127 matches with 315 goals scored, in their attempt to reach the finals in Russia. Only five have qualified: Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia and Senegal.

For Egypt, it will be the first appearance in the finals after 28 years. The Argentinian manager Hector Cuper will use 4-2-3-1formation, a defensive and practical method. It is a tactical approach that the fans do not like too much, since they favour a more aggressive approach. However under Cuper, the Pharaohs have also had an impressive goal record.Two players are to be looked at closely: the Arsenal midfielder, Mohamed Elneny, who has become an important and influential player. He is the one who takes the unfashionable midfield job; and Mohamed Sahah, the current African Footballer of the year. Mo Salah is already a star among the Liverpool fans. He has been there for only one season but his creative style and eye for goal will make the difference. There are real hopes of finishing second in Group A after Russia.

After 20 years, Morocco is back and in Group B, it seems the struggle will be an Iberian affair: Spain and Portugal. However, Morocco could take advantage. French manager Hervé Renard has presented an impressive record in qualifying, with a strategy based on a tight defence at the back with a 4-5-1. Three players must be taken into consideration: Mehdi Benatia, who plays for Juventus in Italy and is currently one of the best defenders and a clever reader of the game; Hakim Ziyech of Ajax and Southampton’s Sofiane Boufal should also contribute interesting surprises and fantasy to the game.
On 26 June, African fans will enjoy the big match between Nigeria and Argentina in the super modern St Petersburg stadium. Group D throws up some interesting encounters. If the bookmakers give Argentinians first place, the second will be between Croatia and Nigeria. The Super Eagles will not lose their opportunities. So far the 4-3-3 opening formation has served Nigeria well but, according to the game, the German coach Gernot Rohr may use a more cautions 5-3-2 approach. Chelsea’s Victor Moses and Arsenal’s Alex Iwobi will make the difference. Kelechi Iheanacho of Leicester, a 25 year-old forward has an impressive goal record. Nigeria is a young team and under captain John Obi Mikrl will show what they can do.

In Group G, there are two big European teams: England and Belgium. Many Belgian players are in the Premier League in England and England has only lost once in the previous 21 encounters with Belgium. But this time it could be different. Both are favourites. Tunisia, having spent 12 years out of the World Cup, are ready to show what they are capable of. The Tunisian coach, Nabil Maaloui can use a 4-2-3-1 or 5-3-2 tactical aproach, depending on the opposition. One player in particular, the midfielder for Sunderland, Wahbi Khazri, is very dangerous when running with the ball. What is sure is that the Eagles of Carthage will not be in Russia as tourists!

Senegal is in the last Group H and they arrive to the World Cup after 16 years, with remarkable talents. Sadio Mané, a Liverpool hero in the Priemier League, has fantastic pace and vision and a brilliant eye for goal. Cheikho Kouyaté is a central midfielder with West Ham United. He is a tall, and strong player whose abilities will make him a key figure in the squad. The manager Alious Cissé will adopt a 4-3-3 formation based on pace and a mentality of putting pressure on the opposite team. The bookmakers give Poland the odds as favourites along with Colombia who arrived as quarter-finalists four years ago. However Senegal will certainly make their presence felt.
Millions of African fans will watch the games with joyful hearts and enthusiastic enjoyment with the hope that one of the African nations will make real history in the 2018 FIFA World Cup competition.

John Mutesa

Central Asia. A Great New Game.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

The region of Central Asia, because of its geographic location, has always been considered a historical place of interest for, and of confrontation between, the great powers, as well as the stage for the famous ‘Great Game’ between the British and Russian Empires.

Following the implosion of the Soviet Union that led to the independence of the Central Asian republics, the region again drew the attention of the great strategists and especially of the American Brzezinski who, in his chief work ‘The Grand Chessboard’, published in 1997, holds that the key to global power is control over Eurasia and the Central Asian republics. Still today, Central Asia continues to be one of the great centres of encounter and confrontation between the great powers present on the global scene, (namely the Russian federation, the United States and China) in which the local governments assume a progressively more active role by adopting multi-vector policies. The attraction of this area is substantially determined by its strategic geographic position which makes it a veritable geopolitical joint between oriental Asia, South East Asia and Russia, Europe and the Near East.

Besides its geographic position, the region is attractive for its abundant metals and rich deposits of oil, gas and water, making it one of the richest areas of the planet. It is for these reasons that many analysts view the area of Central Asia the origin and final end of the majority of the political upheavals that affect other areas. In particular, there is no lack of those who speculate that the United States policy of chaos – that in the last twenty years has destabilised various vast areas of the world – aimed at moving the geopolitical centre of gravity to the two most sensitive areas: the Mediterranean and Central Asia, to be exact. It must also be said that the well-known USA ambition, since the collapse of the USSR, by means of the establishment of two military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, to prevent any possible Peking-Moscow axis (that nonetheless is being created), is today being hindered by these two great protagonists which, due also to their geographic contiguity, have established sound relations with the states of the region.

Russia, in particular, in its efforts to regain its role as an international giant, has carved out for itself a role as the leader in the former Soviet space and, through the make-up of the Eurasian Union, has bound to itself the most important regional actor, Kazakhstan. Close political and economic ties are also maintained with Turkmenistan – through the dense web of gas pipelines, going back to the Soviet era, that still tie the gas exports of the country to Russia – and with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. China – the other great actor on this stage – has tied with various countries of the region, without, however, interfering in their internal political affairs, by means of a series of very advantageous economic agreements, not least by means of the construction of the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline, a gas pipeline more than 1,800 Km long that runs from Turkmenistan as far as the Chinese Xingjian province, passing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Besides breaking the Russian monopoly on the export of gas from Central Asia, it has created a valid alternative to the transit of oil imports that pass through Hormuz and the Malaccan Straits.

Nevertheless, it would not be unreasonable to speculate that the quiet of the Central Asia region may be broken by upheavals similar to those that happened recently on the south bank of the Mediterranean since this area, too, presents some elements of fragility, one of which is the return home of combatants from Syria and Iraq and the instability of some countries, especially Tajikistan whose economy is based exclusively on trading in narcotics facilitated by the long and porous frontier that it shares with Afghanistan. With reference to the phenomenon of combatants, it is important to note that a large number have left Central Asia and, seeing the percentage of combatants in the population, we conclude that Turkmenistan occupies sixth place in the world with 72 inhabitants per million enlisted in Isis; Uzbekistan is in ninth place and Tajikistan in thirteenth. Last, but not least, there is also the possible factor of the fragility of Afghanistan which, having never been completely pacified, could re-explode at any moment, spreading the effects of the deflagration through the entire region and, in particular, in those areas (such as that of Chinese Xinjiang) where embers still burn below the ashes. (F.R.)

DR Congo. Most popular politician risks to be excluded from the presidential race.

Tuesday, 1 May 2018 8:00
Written by: Fr.Carmine

Congo’s most popular politician, the former governor of Katanga, Moise Katumbi, might be excluded from the presidential race.

For the last two years, the 53 years old flamboyant Congolese business and former governor of Katanga, Moise Katumbi Chapwe who declared himself a candidate to the presidential election in May 2016, is coming ahead in most opinion polls. One of the last ones, conducted jointly by the New York based Congo Research Group (CRG) and the Kinshasa-based BERCI consultancy showed that 78% of the Congolese have a favourable opinion of Katumbi, whereas 74% think that President Joseph Kabila should resign to enable a smooth transition. Katumbi is the most popular leader with a 24% support, ahead of two other opposition leaders, Felix Tshisekedi (13%) and Vital Kamerhe (9%), of Adolphe Muzito, a former Prime Minister of Joseph Kabila (8%) followed by the incumbent (6%) who is not allowed to run. Indeed, under the 2006 constitution, President Kabila, whose mandate expired on the 19 December 2016, cannot remain in office more than two terms.

Katumbi is undeniably the favourite for the election which has been postponed already twice to December 2017 and to December 2018, owing to delays orchestrated by the presidential side. The man who made a fortune in several businesses, acting namely as a service provider of the mining industry of Katanga, was named person of the year 2015 by the Jeune Afrique panafrican weekly. He acquired a widespread popularity as governor of Katanga between 2007 and 2015 and as chairman of the Lubumbashi TP Mazembe football club which won five times the Africa Champions League
On the last 12 March, Katumbi who lives in exile in Belgium since 2016, launched in Johannesburg a new party called “Ensemble pour le changement” (together for change) with several heavy weights of the Congolese political spectrum including former ministers of Joseph Kabila and of the late President Mobutu Sese Seko.

As shows the CRG-Berci polls, Katumbi has a nationwide support, being the preferred candidate in 16 of the DRC’s 26 provinces. “Another Congo is possible. We say “no” to dictatorship. The time is no longer for predators but for builders”, said Katumbi in a video-recorded speech, during which he highlighted the priorities of his programme: national reconciliation, fighting corruption, putting an end to impunity, increasing the education and health budgets and diversifying the economy out of the mining sector. Katumbi also promised to mobilise up to 100 billion dollars of investments, to encourage public private partnerships, and unlock provinces through the maintenance of 23,000 km of roads and the rehabilitation of the railway network. The ex-governor of the mining rich Katanga has lots of plans to boost the production, consolidate the DRC’s strategic lead on the cobalt and copper markets, by adding value to minerals and use the profits to finance modern infrastructure and improve water and electricity access.

Yet, despite his popularity, there is no guarantee that Katumbi will be able to run. Indeed, the former governor of Katanga is the target of a real judicial persecution. Moïse Katumbi is facing a number of trials, which are called a “mascarade” by the Roman Catholic Bishops Conference CENCO. By end June 2018, he will be facing a trial by the Supreme Court for his alleged involvement in the recruitment of “mercenaries”, after the arrest of his four bodyguards in May 2016. Curiously, the ANR national intelligence and the Congolese justice disagree upon the date of the alleged offence. In May 2016, Moise Katumbi was also sentenced to three year prison for the alleged illegal acquisition of a real estate property. Then, in March 2018, a Congolese judge filed charges of forgery against the former governor because he held Congolese identity documents during a period where he was an Italian citizen. Under the 2006 Constitution, Congolese citizens are indeed not allowed to retain a double nationality. According to Jeune Afrique, Katumbi retained the Italian citizenship between 2000 and 2017. Now, the Congolese Justice is only targeting Katumbi, despite the fact that over 100 other Congolese high ranking politicians retain another nationality, points out the Brussels-based daily La Libre Belgique. The paper stresses that more than a third of the 120 Senators are Belgian citizens. The list includes former Prime Minister Samy Badibanga and the current Ministers of Labour and Budget. On the last 3 April, Moïse Katumbi tweeted that these manoeuvres did only strengthen his will to pursue his fight to free his country.
He also confirmed that he was candidate for the forthcoming presidential election and reminded that he was born in Katanga and descendent of the late King Baysoka, Msiri.

Another challenge for Moïse Katumbi is the opposition’s incapacity to present a united front at the president election. By end March, the leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, Felix Tshisekedi was elected as presidential candidate at a party congress while other politicians also expressed their wish to run. The risk is that even if they gather together more votes than the candidate of the pro-Kabila People’s Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) and its allies, the latter could theoretically have a chance to win. Indeed, a controversial constitutional reform voted in 2010 by the parliament reduced the vote to a single round from two.
Since Kabila is not allowed to run under the constitution, one of the last scenarios he is envisaging is a Medvedev-type scenario, report insiders in Kinshasa. According to the spokesman of Kabila’s allied Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU), Christian Wolf Kimasa, there has been an agreement that in return for PALU’s support to Kabila at the presidential elections in 2006 and 2011, Kabila and his PPRD party would back PALU’s candidate at the following election. A meeting on the last 19 March between Kabila and the 92 years old PALU chairman Antoine Gizenga fuelled the rumours of such deal.

Accordingly, Kabila would back Gizenga and once elected, the old man would resign after a few months. Then, he would be replaced by Kabila who would in the meantime become speaker of the Senate and in this capacity, would become automatically interim President, thus in a comfortable position to organise his own election. It is everyone’s guess in Kinshasa that Kabila’s election would be substantially eased by the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) which is not trusted 69% of the Congolese, according to the CRG-BERCI polls.
This distrust could be justified. The opposition, the civil society and diplomats are suspicious of CENI’s acquisition of South-Korean made voting machines. Interestingly enough, the South Korean government itself told Jeune Afrique weekly it was concerned by the risk that these machines might be used by CENI to obtain undesired electoral results. The US ambassador at the UN, Niki Haley also warned the Congolese government that it should abandon the use of these machines because they did not look reliable and bore a risk of questioning electoral results. There has been a precedent. The fraud in the compilation of votes by CENI computers was the main reason why the elections were declared as not credible in 2011 by international observers.
François Misser

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