Mogadishu and the Federal States are on a collision course regarding different issues, especially the management of the elections to be held next year, the first since 1969. The bordering countries such as Kenya and the Arab states are fanning the flames of the crisis.

The coming months will be crucial for Somalia. In 2020, in fact, the first universal suffrage elections since 1969 are to be held. They could possibly represent the start of a new phase in the complicated and tiresome journey of emergence from the deep crisis initiated by the collapse of the regime of Siad Barre. But the country is preparing itself in an atmosphere of tension and instability.

Relations between Mogadishu and the Federal States are worsening. In the past year, five of the states into which the country is divided – the sixth, Somaliland, declared itself independent in 1991 – have formed their own ‘Council for Cooperation Among the Federal States’.
During a meeting that took place in Chisimaio, the capital of Jubbaland, last September, they declared they would call a halt to collaboration with the central government until they received a response to various important issues.
Some of these: the failure to combat the Al-Shabaab terrorists, the lack of a clear agreed mechanism for sharing resources, a poor commitment to ensure that credible universal suffrage elections are held and interference by the central government in the affairs of the Federal States. In the view of various experts in Somali politics, the real problem is the elections.
The five Federal States would aim at weakening the credibility of the Central Commission, maintaining that it would not be able to guarantee free and fair elections. The final objective would be to prevent the control of the vote in their own territory so that they may have more trump cards to play in the context of the control of power at national level. In August, there was already a dangerous trial of strength, when elections were held in Jubbaland.

Mogadishu contested the appointment of the electoral commission and of the grand electors who chose the members of the regional parliament saying it was not in line with the rules of the Constitution. But Chisimaio considered this judgement to be interference in local matters and continued the electoral process until the confirmation, for a second term, of the incumbent President, Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, and leader of the federal wing of the central government. Mogadishu has not recognised the elections as valid. At the same time, a second parliament was being appointed which elected its own president. This is a potentially explosive situation.

Explosive situation
It is such a potentially explosive situation that it risks seriously destabilising not only Somalia, but the entire region. In fact, Ethiopia and Kenya also have their roles to play in this game. Addis Ababa is allied with Mogadishu in line with its relations with the Somalia central government. In 2006, Ethiopia played a decisive role in the defeat of the Union of Islamic Courts which, in effect, was governing a large part of the country, and in reinforcing the transitional federal government, sponsored by the international community which it helped to set up in Mogadishu. Nairobi, instead, is allied with Chisimaio. It considers Jubbaland to be a valuable buffer against terrorist infiltration and Madobe an optimal ally. For this reason, Nairobi has backed him, even at diplomatic level, as well as his reasoning and his re-election.

The Kenyan foreign minister, Monica Juma, publicly contested some of the observations and perplexities concerning the electoral process expressed by the peace mission, Unisom, and of the UN commission for political affairs. The position and intervention of Kenya are especially meaningful and delicate also due to the present difficult moment in diplomatic relations between the two countries. This is due to an age-old dispute about maritime borders which refers to sovereignty over an area of the Indian Ocean where large deposits of oil and natural gas have been discovered.
Tensions have constantly increased since last February when the Somalia Oil Conference was held in London, in which, according to Nairobi, the estimates concerning deposits in the contested area of the sea were presented. Since then, Kenya has accused Mogadishu of preparing to auction off oil extraction rights in the disputed sea area, without waiting for the judgement, to be issued soon, of the court of the Hague, to which Somalia presented the case.

Turkey and the Gulf countries
The stability of Somalia is also influenced by tensions between the two Arab-Moslem blocks: that led by Saudi Arabia, of which the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are part, and that made up of Turkey and Qatar. Ankara is a major investor in Somalia. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first non-African head of state to visit the country, after a gap of twenty years. Turkish Airlines is the only flag-carrying company allowed to operate in Mogadishu, the site of the largest Turkish embassy in the world and the largest Turkish military base abroad.

Qatar is also an important donor. Somalia refused to ally itself with Saudi Arabia at the start of the conflict in Yemen when it attempted to isolate Qatar. Since then, the clash between the two blocks has become weightier on Somali soil. It is a clash that is played out by fomenting problems between the Federal States and the central government, according to political analysts. The ‘public’ split was established by an accord between the United Arab Emirates and Somaliland which Somalia considers one of the Federal States, for restructuring the port of Berbera and the construction of a military base, going over Mogadishu’s head.

In this context, where internal relations are increasingly weak and competition between the various actors is continually growing, al-Shabaab has the opportunity to extend its influence over the territory, using its capacity, strengthened in recent years, of striking where it wants with impunity. There is also much evidence of a capillary presence in Mogadishu itself, evidenced, among other things, by payments of cash to avoid attacks. So terrorists have everywhere become mafiosi. But this is possible thanks to a close network of connivance that will certainly also be used to influence the elections in their favour.

Bruna Sironi

Fishing rights sold off by governments to foreign companies. Illegal fishing and how it damages the environment. Drug trafficking.
Factors that impoverish and render insecure the waters of many African countries.

The continent has 38 coastal countries, 13 million km² of maritime zones and owns 17% of global water resources. Economically speaking, 90% of African trade travels by sea. As regards food security, many African countries derive much of their protein from fish which makes fishing a primary activity in the survival of the inhabitants.

Maritime control is important to Africa for three reasons: it helps economic development, is an integral part of security and defends its nutritional integrity. Piracy, one of the most serious threats to the security of the African coasts, has for two years now, again begun to weigh heavily on the waters off the coast of Somalia and the Gulf of Guinea. There are other serious problems such as trafficking in arms, fuel, drugs and human beings, apart from the different crimes against the environment and illegal fishing. It is worth noting that the conflict in Yemen has caused an increase in criminal activities in the Red Sea using remotely controlled boat-bombs and unmanned submarine drones which constitute a threat to maritime trade and infrastructure with implications affecting the entire region.

One of the most widespread and worrying of the crimes is drug trafficking, especially in western Africa which, in the last decade, has become one of the main transit routes for South American cocaine destined for Europe, as well as being a strategic centre for the production, distribution and wholesale trading of narcotics. One of the more negative aspects of these illegal activities is that their proceeds have made it possible for the drug dealers to co-opt political powers in some countries of the region (e.g., Guinea-Bissau), thereby weakening the progress achieved in democracy and economic development. Fishing rights are also sold off by governments to foreign companies.
There is illegal fishing with consequent damage to the environment and the drug trade. All of these are factors that impoverish and render insecure the waters of many African countries. Another series of threats involves illegal fishing that is made legal.
Foreign companies, not infrequently Chinese, have succeeded in many governments of coastal countries to sign contracts which, in reality, allow them to plunder the fishing resources.

According to Ian Raby, head of research in maritime law at the African Centre for Strategic Studies based in Washington, “Many African countries have compensated for the serious shortcoming of ignoring their own maritime dominion but continue to pay little attention to the protection of their limited maritime resources”.
In the strategy pursued by African countries to guarantee maritime security, it is worth mentioning the Lome Accord, adopted in October 2016, at the conclusion of an extraordinary summit of the African Union in Togo. It is an important document for safeguarding the security and development of the seas around Africa and it has been placed within the Integrated Maritime Strategy for Africa up to 2050, and adopted on 6 December 2012 by the African Union to value the enormous potential of the African maritime sector.

The main point of the document is the recognition that no country by itself is capable of facing such challenges to transnational maritime security and it is therefore planning for coordinated action between African states. The only problem, and it is not a small one, is that, to come into force, the Lome Accord requires ratification by at least 15 of the 33 countries that have adopted it. Up to now, it has been approved only by Togo. Nevertheless, regional cooperation has shown its effectiveness through key agreements already in force, such as the code of conduct of Yaoundé for the suppression of illegal maritime activity in the Gulf of Guinea.This code was adopted during a summit of heads of state and government of the Economic Community of Western African States (CEDEAO) and of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC), that took place in June 2013 in the capital of Cameroon. The agreement represents an important model for cooperation between African countries in matters of maritime security that has now become one of the dominant factors in the general development of the continent.
(M.C.)

Environmental degradation will make the planet face up to challenges unknown until now. As a consequence of the deterioration of the environment, Africa is experiencing the phenomenon of climate-driven migration.

Africa is currently home to more than 1.3 billion people, a figure that could double by 2050, according to UN forecasts. The African population is mainly living in a context of social inequality, with worrying indicators about gender equality, access to health and education. The expected population growth implies the need for a larger quantity of food.

According to an FAO study on the incidence of climate change on agricultural production, this is expected to decline in different areas of the world, particularly in Africa. Furthermore, land grabbing practices for non-food uses, which contribute to environmental degradation, are on the rise in Africa, while more agricultural land is needed.

Water and soil
Food is and will be an even more critical issue as the population grows. Agriculture and livestock require water that, in some African regions, especially in the Sahel, is scarce. The dams that have been built to facilitate the irrigation of certain crops, sometimes prevent the natural processes of seasonal flooding of wetlands, affecting inland fishing and livestock grazing. This is happening in such countries as Mali and Senegal. It is commonly believed that there is high availability of arable land in Africa, but potential new crops affect ecosystems, and deforestation exposes the soil to high temperatures which break down the organic matter and make the soils vulnerable to erosion. The productivity of these new arable lands, in areas that were previously forested, declines after a few decades of agricultural exploitation.

The occupation and conversion of these lands must also be considered under several aspects. Those lands destined for cotton farming are increasing in Africa, but cotton is not intended to create a local textile industry, since it is destined for export. The oil palm provides biodiesel and oil for domestic consumption and various energy uses. Its cultivation is spreading in large areas, which is causing the usual degradation of the soil, in addition to the expansion of the Palm weevil disease which infests and kills palms.
But climate change does not only affect agriculture in the African continent. Fishing in Africa, whether in rivers, lakes, or in the sea, employs mainly artisanal techniques. The a fore-mentioned alterations in rivers and wetlands, or those that climate change will likely cause, will affect these activities. Millions of Africans depend on fish caught by local fishermen (more than half a million people live on artisanal fishing in Senegal), but as a consequence of over fishing by the European or other foreign fleets, stocks are further decreasing.

Local fishermen are now forced to fish further out to sea because the accessibility to stocks close the coast is diminishing. Mining is another threat to African resources; mining activities in fact destroy soil, pollute waters and, in some cases, leave ditches of sterile rock that usually leak contaminated water, with the consequent risk of breakage and toxic spills. Many raw materials, such as copper, bauxite, gold, coltan or the increasingly popular rare earth metals are extracted in Africa, and Nigeria and Algeria are the two main suppliers of oil and gas in the continent. Oil extraction in Nigeria has caused extreme environmental degradation in the Niger Delta and in the Gulf of Guinea.
In many African countries, energy is obtained by burning firewood and other biomass fuels, generating significant deforestation. Petroleum-exporting countries, such as Nigeria, do not have refineries, so they must import the petroleum products they consume. European and Chinese companies acquire – legally or otherwise – huge tracts of land in many African countries to grow crops for agro-fuels such as oil palm and other crops like cassava, which would appear as sources of agro-fuels. These crops are being grown at the cost of food crops, which that continent needs because dying of starvation and hunger is still a stark reality for the African population.

Consequences of climate change.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected minimum temperature is expected to increase by more than 2 °C above the 1981–2000 average by the end of 21st century. An increase in temperature would affect evaporation. Basically, the higher the temperature the higher the rate of evaporation and as a consequence there is less water on the earth’s surface. The Inner Niger Delta is the inland delta  of the Niger River. It is an area of fluvial wetlands, lakes and floodplains in the semi-arid Sahel area of central Mali, just south of the Sahara desert. This food zone covers 50,000 Km^².

During the wet season, which lasts from July to September the swamp floods into a lake and naturally irrigates the land.  When the dry season comes, the Inner Niger Delta area turns into a network of lakes and channels. Cattle, pearl millet, and rice are its important agricultural products. The area of inland delta also provides water and fish for the several million people living there.
To the east of the Inner Niger Delta there is Lake Chad, also in the north of the Sahel. Over the last fifty years the area of Lake Chad has reduced drastically leading to significant imbalances resulting in an increased vulnerability of the hydro- socio-ecosystem with multiple results also affecting fishermen and ranchers living in that area. The difficult situation has also caused tensions and clashes between the groups that live in the area around the lake. A tree-planting project has been proposed in order to slow down the process of desertification.  Fast-growing trees, mainly eucalyptus, could be planted in the area between the Sahara and the Sahel.

Greenhouse gas
According to a new study, global sea levels are set to rise dramatically even if the strictest greenhouse gas emissions targets are met.  Researchers say oceans will rise by over one metre even if the world sticks to the Paris agreement, adding that if emissions are not curbed as soon as possible the rise will be even greater. The sea level rise would deteriorate the coasts, for example in mangrove areas, which are a source for the marine fauna development, and which also constitute a barrier for the population living close to the sea.
A rise in sea levels also implies the salinization of fresh groundwater in coastal aquifers affecting agricultural areas such as the Nile Delta or coastal cities like Lagos (Nigeria), where 15 million people live and where oil pollution is also a serious issue.

Environmental migrants
Today climate-driven migration is a phenomenon that occurs in several corners of the planet, but the poorest regions of the global South, such as the African continent, are those where the number of climate migrants is the highest. This is a clear example of climate injustice since Africa is responsible only for 7% of total greenhouse gas emissions. In different regions of Africa, climate-driven migration is already a reality and the numbers of environmental migrants is expected to increase.

According to the new World Bank report “Groundswell”, published in 2018, more than 86 million people  are expected to move within their countries’ borders by 2050 in the African continent due to environmental changes. In the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, the periodic effects of droughts and variations in rainfall patterns have influenced the migration of rural populations.
Climate change is one of the main causes of human migration. Climate-driven migration is an even more evident reality in Africa where the most vulnerable people are the most affected.
Emilio Menéndez – Marina Tortosa García de Ceca