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How the hare lost his tail.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

One day in the long, long ago the hare was walking through the forest. He was a good farmer and was on his way to inspect his mealie lands. In those days he was like all the other creatures of the wilds: he had a long tapering tail, a well-formed nose and a strong, sturdy figure. He was, in fact, extremely proud of his appearance.

On this particular occasion he had stopped for a brief rest and was sitting on a fallen tree-trunk, when a man came hurrying along one of the many paths that crossed and criss-crossed the forest. He looked at the hare with relief. “I am going to my marriage dance at the village across the river – he said -, but I have lost my way among all these paths. Can you show me how to get there?”

The hare was always ready to oblige when the chance of a party or a beer drink was in the offing. “With pleasure – he replied – . Follow me.” And he set off at once with great leaps and bounds.

He covered the ground at such a rate that the man found great difficulty in keeping up with him and gradually fell further and further behind. Finally he lost sight of the hare altogether. To crown all, he fell into a well-concealed game-pit and was unable to climb out again.

After a while the hare noticed that the man was not behind him anymore, and turned back to find out why he was not following. “Whatever happened, friend?” he asked when he found the man struggling to get out of the hole.
“Here, catch hold of my tail and jump out!” And the hare sat down at the rim of the hole so that the man could use his tail as a rope.

The man took a firm hold on the tail and gave a tremendous jump, but in doing so he lost his balance and fell backwards. He was such a heavy man that the hare’s tail broke off right up near his body.

“Dear, dear, dear!” exclaimed the hare, more concerned about missing the wedding party than losing his tail. “This will never do. We must get you out, or we shall miss the party. Put your arms around my waist and I’ll see if I can pull you out.”

The man did as he was told, and after a great deal of pulling and struggling the hare finally got the man out. They both fell to the ground, exhausted by their efforts.
Then the hare realised that the man had squeezed his waist so tightly that it was much, much smaller than before.

“Dear, dear, dear!” exclaimed the hare again, still more concerned about missing the wedding party than his now ridiculously slender waist. “We must be quick, or we shall miss the party.”

The wedding party was already in full swing when the hare and the bridegroom finally reached the village. The hare lost no time in making himself at home. It was not long before he started to push other would-be partners aside so that he could dance with the bride, who was renowned throughout the country for her beauty.

The hare was very light and nimble, and danced on the very tips of his toes. This pleased the bride to such an extent that she refused all other partners, to the great annoyance and jealousy of her groom.

Earlier that evening, while the bride was on her way to the wedding party, she had slipped on some stepping-stones while crossing a river, and fallen into the water.
As the evening wore on, her wet skirt began to shrink and became shorter and shorter and shorter.
Noticing this, many of the guests covered their mouths with their hands to smother their laughter.

This annoyed the hare, so he went in search of some cloth. Eventually he found a braided goatskin in one of the village huts. He stripped a couple of pieces of bark from a tree and held the two ends firmly between his teeth. Then he began to twist them together to make a girdle with which to tie the skin around the bride’s waist. But he twisted with such vigour and speed that one of the pieces of bark shot up and cut his upper lip right through to his nose.

Although the bride was very sympathetic and did all in her power to comfort him, the flesh never joined up completely; and this has left not only the hare, but his descendants as well, with a split upper lip.

The bridegroom was so angry at the hare for depriving him of his bride at the wedding party that he was delighted at the hare’s misfortune, declaring that it was his just punishment. And the hare was wise enough to return to his farm without delay, before the bridegroom had time to carry out the revenge that he was planning. And that is why all hares have a very short tail, a ridiculously small waist, and a harelip to this day.

Folktale from Zambia

Homelessness, an Unexpected Advocacy.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Advocacy is about defending a noble cause and denouncing oppression and injustice. However, it should be also a source of inspiration for alternative solutions to social, political and economic threats. Solutions advocating for inclusion and equality instead of exclusion or, worse, only of private financial interests.

First, what is Global Homelessness? Its current statistic are inaccurate and outdated. However, an estimated 100 million people or more are the world’s homeless (UN, ECOSOC, Commission on Human Rights). While this is roughly 2% of the world population, 20%, 1.6 billion people, lack adequate housing (See Habitat 2005). The UN Statistic Division groups homeless in two categories: those who live in streets having no shelter, and those who move frequently between accommodations shelters, dwellings, others’ home.

Homelessness is both a cause and effect of complex and multifaceted social and economic poverty due to lack of housing affordability, increased housing costs, privatization of civic services, conflicts, and rapid urbanization. With inadequate or no housing comes inadequate or no access to necessary services such as electricity, public programs, transportation, education, internet, water.

While some may argue that solving homelessness would be very costly, a more profound analysis shows that it would be in the countries’ economic interest to address the issue. In the United States of America, for example, each chronically homeless person costs the taxpayer some $35,578 per year. This is reduced by 49.5% when they are placed in supportive housing.
A case study in Tshwane, a South Africa city, states that the homeless population have great economic potential. Employing the homeless will reduce homelessness and benefit the country economy.

Accessing Education
Accessing education is obviously difficult to impossible to those who are homeless. By investing in inclusive education system, the countries can lower the rates of homelessness. Moreover, ending homelessness can increase the number of educated citizens, and more education means economic, social, and political opportunities for all citizens, which in turn rebounds in all countries even economic advantages.

Health issues
Homeless persons are at risk for many health issues, especially to meet infectious diseases, putting safety of the entire public at risk. Some research even suggests that homelessness can lead to developing mental illnesses. Health concerns can have negative effects for both individuals and societies. It is in the interest of public health to address homelessness saving social security money.
Society should feel concerned for all human rights that homeless people lack. Hunger, often characterized by malnutrition, can have deeply negative effects on one’s health especially among children. Maternal and childhood chronic hunger results in risk for poorer general health, increasing anxiety, irritability, and aggressiveness. Among children, it can increase developmental, physical, and emotional disorder, all weighing down on social health cost. This can perpetuate a cycle of poverty and homelessness, than in turn increase structural, sexual and domestic violence. Increased rates of violence, in other hand, have shown to be a predictor of repeated homelessness.

An humanitarian problem
Homelessness is a social and humanitarian problem. Winters bring to the news the endless list of old and poor people dying while sleeping on the street, for lack of food and health treatment, while life, food, housing are the basically human rights. Instead of looking at homeless people as a social sore and nuisance, why do not society’s leaders see them as an opportunity? Such a suggestion, can be argued, borders an old sophism, “salty anchovies make thirsty, being thirsty pushes to drink what in turn quenches thirst, and therefore anchovies quench thirst”.

However, homelessness is not about a theoretical discussion. Homelessness endangers the lives of vulnerable people, particularly women and children. In Toronto, Canada, homeless women 18-44 years of age were 10 times more likely to die than the general female population as a 2004 report says. Research in South Africa suggests that homeless pregnant women lacking health security, education, and awareness are more inclined to experience health complications leading to a low birth weight, longer hospital stays, and a higher need of neonatal intensive care. Why societies, for their own economic, social, and political interest, do not prevent such problems that can be foreseen, instead of reacting with violence and repression when they unexpectedly happen?

John Paul Pezzi, mccj
VIVAT International NGO
with consultative special status at UN

Ecumenism in Africa. Dialogue in the continent of diversity.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

In ancient times, the word ecumene denoted the whole known world and defined that portion of the earth that was inhabited, in contrast with the lands as yet unknown. Later, the concept of ecumenism attained a religious meaning referring to the movements within Christianity that aimed at unifying their various denominations, separated by questions of doctrine, history, tradition and practice. Africa is moving forward in the field of ecumenism, despite the complexity of the continent.

The ecumenical movement today is marked by various milestones such as the launch of the octave of prayer for the unity of Christians in 1908; the World Missionary Conference, held in Edinburgh in 1910; the creation of the Ecumenical Council of the Churches, nine years later; or the institution of its statutes in Utrecht (1938) and Amsterdam (1948).
In the catholic world, Pope John XXIII imparted greater impetus to the movement, followed by Paul VI and John Paul II. The ecumenical movement belongs essentially to the West but the expansion of Christianity to the whole world, and to Africa in particular, renders this statement devoid of meaning. In Africa, it is worth remembering that there are around three thousand independent Christian churches that follow their own religiosity.

In the African context, a person belongs to a community by birth and cannot leave it without losing their identity. In this real and symbolic universe, human life is seen as existence in its entirety, as a manifestation of the divine, the ancestors, the spirits and of nature. In this context, no human life is extraneous to the rites of birth, puberty, matrimony, the rites carried out at the time of death or healing, to give but a few examples.
This traditional African wisdom soon became the target of the first evangelisers, who aimed at extending general Christian salvation, unique and exclusive. Their great conviction and admirable commitment would create, in parallel, a great loss of direction among the new African believers faced with a new vision of the world and of the human being. From then on, humankind would be seen only in essential terms of body and soul, matter and spirit, humanity and divinity. This dualism caused in the hearts of the Africans a separation between mother nature and the ties that bound them to the universe as a whole, divided by a struggle between this life and the next, and marked by a religiosity that preached the salvation of the soul while ignoring the suffering caused by the colonial system. The new Christian Africans found they had been disinherited from their roots and disoriented regarding their future.

The evangelical message preached by the first missionaries reached Sub-Saharan Africa already fragmented by the Portuguese explorations in the XV century, the return of liberated slaves in the XIX century and, above all, after attacking it, by the division and distribution of Africa by the European powers at the Conference of Berlin (1885). The implementation and development of Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa would be totally conditioned by the origins and cultures of the evangelisers. This culturally pluralistic Christianity spread a weak Gospel that was practically unable to give adequate answers to the religious aspirations of the Africans. The new Christians showed western clothes. This situation led to the spread of syncretism and led to the birth of independent churches.

The African ecumenical mission
In his Apostolic Exhortation Ecclesia in Africa, Pope John Paul II reminds us that Catholics are sent to develop ecumenical dialogue with all their baptised brothers belonging to other Christian confessions, so as to reach that unity for which Christ prayed. He pointed out that this dialogue can be realised through initiatives such as an ecumenical translation of the Bible, the theological study of various aspects of the Christian faith or evangelical witness for justice, peace, and respect for human dignity. As regards traditional religions, Pope John Paul II stated that serene and prudent dialogue will guarantee the assimilation of their positive values and harmonise them with the content of Christianity.
It is therefore necessary to treat with respect and esteem those who follow traditional religions.

The Pontiff emphasised that commitment to dialogue must also include Moslems of good will. Christians must not forget that many Moslems try to imitate the faith of Abraham. The Pope also said that Christians and Moslems have been called to commit themselves to the promotion of a dialogue that fosters religious freedom against all forms of religious fundamentalism. The coexistence of all these religions represents a great challenge to the Christian proposal for dialogue in Africa.
The ecumenical proposal and mission of Christians in the continent, conflict with the situation of fundamental groups that often inculcate in their members a message of hatred, discrimination and extremism which is an obstacle to efforts for ecumenical and religious dialogue. Somalia and the surrounding countries, for example, became the scene in recent years of bloody terrorist attacks by Al Shabab. Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger suffer the incursions of Boko Haram extremists whose aim is to impose Sharia Law in the heart of Africa.

Hope in dialogue
Even though the outlook for ecumenical dialogue seems bleak in Africa, the Christian churches of Africa and other faith communities are still active and militant in the search for an ecumenical solution to these challenges. Christmas in many countries of the continent is no longer an exclusively Christian celebration but has become a tradition for other religious communities. In Senegal, for example, Christians, Moslems and followers of traditional faiths celebrate together the birth of Jesus, and each of them desires the best for their neighbours. In Algeria, Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo, many Christians celebrate Christmas inviting Moslems to join their celebrations.

Ecumenical dialogue in the African continent is centred upon various aspects, especially those connected with the sacraments. Regarding Baptism, all Christians – Catholics, Orthodox, Anglicans and Protestants – recognise its validity, even if administered by different Churches.
The same is true for the validity of marriage between Christians of different denomination.The joint celebration of the Eucharist as well as the pastoral service of the sick in hospitals is the subject of dialogue and reflection. Other questions facing the different Christian Churches are divorce, abortion, atheism and secularisation as well as the challenges of poverty and corruption. In this situation, problems such as homosexuality have not entered the agenda of African ecumenism to any great extent. An effort is being made to improve the presence of women in the structures of many Christian communities.

Christ, symbol of fullness
In all this process of ecumenical dialogue, it is not easy to know exactly what the different Churches are referring to when they speak of Jesus as Saviour. Here, as emphasised by José Ignacio Gonzàlez Faus, a Spanish Jesuit theologian, in ‘Credo Cristiano’, ‘each one seeks in Jesus protection and salvation; for some, salvation is preserving and increasing that which they have already; for others, Christ is the one who maintains the status quo: a God who ratifies the past in the present and makes it permanent and stable. He is the God of the established order, of blind obedience and of immutable law’.

However, seeing the efforts towards true ecumenical dialogue in Africa today, Christ must necessarily constitute a promise and the absolute guarantee of a better future for all. African ecumenical dialogue must, in this sense, lay its foundations in the path where it is well understood that we are all part of the same spirit of God, of a universal awareness whose fascination leads us to the practice of love and steers us away from error, discrimination and hatred.
Instead of ecumenical dialogue, Africa would first need an inter-religious dialogue that brings lasting peace and merciful justice. Ecumenical efforts in Africa must always reawaken our sensibility towards others and stimulate their sensibility towards each other. Being voluntarily rooted in one’s own religion does not allow serious participation in ecumenical dialogue with Christians of other Churches, still less with followers of other religious confessions. Africa needs agents of evangelisation with an advanced ecumenical formation, sustained by the power of the Holy Spirit. This is the only way to reach unity loved by Christ for the world and for Africa.
Jean de Dieu Madangi
Congolese Philosopher and theologian

Mexico. Calakmul, the Lost City.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Its name means “The Place of Adjacent Mounds.” This site was contemporary with Tikal and Palenque. Calakmul was at its peak between around 431 and 790 A.D. but it was already an important city in the late Pre-classic, with dated monuments being erected
around 200 A.D.

Calakmul was inhabited for 1500 years and was a major Maya power in the area within the Guatemalan Petén and northern Yucatan. Calakmul was one of the largest and most powerful ancient cities ever uncovered in the Maya lowlands with a population of 50,000 inhabitants. It was the capital of what it is known as the Snake Kingdom, which extended in a radius of up to 150 kilometres including secondary cities like El Mirador and it governed about two million Mayan people. Throughout the Classic period (250 – 900), Calakmul maintained an intense rivalry with the major city of Tikal. The great rivalry between these two cities may have been based on more than competition for resources. Their dynastic histories reveal different origins and the intense competition between the two powers may have had an ideological grounding. Calakmul’s dynasty seems ultimately derived from the great Preclassic city of El Mirador while the dynasty of Tikal was profoundly affected by the intervention of the distant central Mexican metropolis of Teotihuacan.

Calakmul was occupied since the middle Preclassic period, around the first millennium BC. The city was then a vassal of others like El Mirador or Nakbe, which later would pass under its dominion. During the Classic period, Tikal was the city dominating much of the Mayan region. However, Calakmul was a rival city with equivalent resources that challenged the supremacy of Tikal and engaged in a strategy of surrounding it with its own network of allies in the middle of the sixth century and throughout the seventh. Calakmul, which was ruled by the Kaan (Snake) dynasty challenged Tikal’s domain, managing to side with Tikal-vassal states such as Caracol and Dos Pilas, and inflicted Tikal with several defeats. But it was only under the rule of King Yuknoom the Great that Calakmul reached its peak managing to control a large area of the Yucatan and to occupy Tikal, although it failed to extinguish Tikal’s power completely and Tikal was able to turn the tables on its great rival in a decisive battle that took place in 695 AD. Half a century later Tikal was able to gain major victories over Calakmul’s most important allies.

Between the ninth and tenth centuries, both Tikal and Calakmul were progressively abandoned for no apparent reason in what is known as the great Mayan collapse. The jungle is so impenetrable in that region that during the entire colonial era Calakmul went unnoticed. The city, which had been hidden in the jungle for 1,000 years, was ‘discovered’ in 1931 by the American botanist Cyrus Lundell who assisted in British Honduras, with experiments on the sapodilla tree (Achras zapota), which yields chicle, for the U.S. chewing gum industry.

Chicle is the natural gum from trees of the genus Manilkara, tropical evergreen trees native to southern North America and South America. It was traditionally used in chewing gum. Lundell named Calakmul the City of Adjacent Towers after the two large pyramids discovered here. The archaeologist, epigrapher, and Mayanist, Sylvanus Morley, who was in Chichen Itza at the time of Lundell’s discovery, was quickly informed and some investigations were carried out at the site in the years that followed. The exploration of the site, however, came to a halt in 1938, and was only resumed in the 1980s.
The Autonomous University of Campeche and the National Institute of Anthropology and History have been in charge of investigating the 117 stelae that have revealed Calakmul’s past.

The city is located on an artificially flattened promontory. It is surrounded by a seasonal swamp, the Labyrinth, and an extensive network of canals and reservoirs and fertile lands. The 6,000 structures, mainly in Petén style, that comprise the city’s bed, occupy about 70 square kilometres. The size of the central monumental architecture is approximately 2 square kilometres and the whole of the site, mostly covered with dense residential structures, is about 20 square kilometres. The monumental area includes around a thousand structures. Structure 2 is 45 meters high and 120 meters wide and it was increased in size by building upon the pre-existing temple in order to increase its bulk. From there one can see the large square and the acropolis next to it. Calakmul stelae were made from poor quality limestone and tend to be badly eroded. Valuable pottery and murals are also found in Calakmul. The Calakmul murals are slightly different from the others found in ancient Maya sites, as the latter depict activities of the elite class. In the Calakmul mural, market scenes are depicted, where people are seen preparing or consuming products such as tobacco, tamale, and atole, while vendors are selling needles and textiles.

Calakmul also houses one of the most an important biodiversity sanctuaries in Mesoamerica, it constitutes a biological corridor that improves the viability of species from the north of Yucatan to the south and the species of humid and sub-humid climates of Chiapas and Petén towards the north and the Caribbean.
Calakmul Biosphere Reserve boasts about 1,100 species of plants with 380 endemic species, including 73 types of wild orchids. As to the fauna, the reserve hosts 90 species of mammals ; 235 species of birds, of which about 60 species are migratory; 50 species of reptiles; 400 of butterflies; and in the waters, there are 18 native fish species. (F.C.)

Our Right to Speak for Climate Justice.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Hundreds of thousands of young people have taken to the streets from Johannesburg to London to demand radical action on the unfolding ecological emergency.

It is a time to challenge the people with the means and power to eliminate poverty, change their communities, build a nation and fight climate change, a cause of poverty, and make the world a safer and healthier place for human kind and creation.

These power brokers are the financiers, the bankers, the traders, multinational corporations and the politicians that support them. They are mostly elected by the rich to do their bidding and make laws to benefit their corporate interests. They have the power of government and can give them permits and police and military protection to exploit the land of the poor, to damage the environment and to cause climate destruction all for their personal benefit. They mine the mountains, burn the forests, pollute the air and steal the wealth of nations. In the process, they destroy the cultures and cause greater poverty. We need to take a stand for climate justice.

Damaging climate change is caused by the massive pollution of corporate industry that pours CO2 gases into the atmosphere from coal plants and factories increasing the global temperature. That in turn is melting the permafrost and millions of cubic feet of methane, the worst greenhouse gas of all, pour into the sky forming a blanket of gas around the globe. We live in a planetary oven which is being backed by the blistering sun. Eleven thousand world scientists have declared recently a “climate emergency,” proving by clear evidence and scientific proof that global warming will bring untold poverty and human suffering.

Soon, the world’s temperature will reach the tipping point, the point of no return. More crops will not survive, animals will become extinct, and poor people will die in vast numbers. We can see the raging fires, storms and floods across the world. The physical and scientific evidence is plain to see. The only concern of the ignorant and greedy politicians is their own and corporate interests typified by President Trump withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate agreement.

We can see and hear the cries and protests of the school children, the unemployed, the hungry and the hopeless that are taking to the streets across the world demanding an end to global warming, climate change, inequality, poverty, injustice and corruption. We too must find a non-violent, peaceful way to express our protest. We can make a placard, join a march, raise it with others and add our voice to the rising protest against poverty and injustice.

Political power is the force that controls and directs a nation, influences our lives and families and, if implemented justly and with competence, it can bring peace, harmony, justice, well-being and an end to widespread poverty. It is the abuse of power, graft and corruption, greed and exploitation that cause poverty, unemployment, hardship, injustice, and human rights violations. Eventually, it can lead to mass demonstrations and even insurrection.

Around the world demonstrations are erupting in many countries. Protest is in the air. The common people want to vent their anger and exercise their freedom of expression and protest and even overturn corrupt governments. Even the children and youth are marching
and protesting.

But small issues lead to big public outrage and both peaceful and violent protests. In Chile, an increase in bus fare sparked the fury; in Hong Kong, a law to extradite Hong Kong citizens to mainland China for trial started the protests. In Lebanon, it was because proposed tax on the use of WhatsApp, no less. In Iraq, it is government corruption and almost a hundred have been killed. The elite will hold on to power come what may. In the Philippines, there is silence.

The news feeds are reporting many more street protests and demonstrations in other countries around the world. The poor and the oppressed, the exploited and forgotten, downtrodden people are having their say. Will it change anything? We cannot know for now. Organized or spontaneous peaceful, non-violent demonstration is a civil right. It is the bedrock of democracy; it is the voice of the people, the cry of truth and freedom. It is the only challenge to tyrants and dictators and corrupt leaders. It is a right that we should respect in our efforts to end poverty.

Father Shay Cullen

Africa 2020. Between Elections and Conflicts.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Existing and looming conflicts, “third-termism” and rigged elections are the main challenges.

The Jihadist threat, the leaders’ will to stay in power beyond constitutional terms, possibly rigged elections and looming conflicts in the Great Lakes Region are the main challenges for 2020. The result of the parliamentary elections in Egypt at the end of 2020 looks predictable. An overwhelming victory of President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi’s candidates for the House of Representatives and the Senate is expected since protesters are silenced systematically as happened in September 2019 when 2,300 people were arrested.
The question is whether the powder-keg will explode, with growing resentment against the military regime from Islamist supporters, pro-democracy activists and young unemployed.
In Algeria, a new President is supposed to be elected on the 12 December 2019 but will he boast enough legitimacy to lead the country? The “Hirak” protest movement activists have called for a boycott, claiming that all registered candidates belong to the “political system”. At any rate, no new large project will be implemented in 2020, warned the Minister of Interior, Salah Eddine Dahmoune, owing to budget constraints caused by lower oil prices.

Libya is likely to remain a focus of uncertainty, except on one point. At the end of October, Italy and the UN-backed Tripoli government renewed their deal under which Libyan coastguards stop migrant boats at sea and send their passengers back to Africa, where they may face torture and abuse, while the civil war continues to rage. This should reduce the migration flows through Italy and, on the contrary, increase pressure in the Strait of Gibraltar between Morocco and Spain.
Meanwhile, the situation which looked like a stalemate in 2019 may change. In November, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord supported by Turkey and Qatar was still resisting the offensive launched against the city by the leader of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, which is supported by Egypt and by the United Arab Emirates. Attempts by Western diplomats to persuade the UAE, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict may not be sufficient to halt the General’s ambitions.

In the Sahel Region, three countries will try to hold elections within a climate of ongoing Jihadist terrorism. Mali plans to organise parliamentary elections in May. But the weakness of the Malian army towards the Jihadists is a major concern, as shown by an attack against a military barracks on the border with Niger, which killed 53 Malian soldiers on 1 November 2019. The UN Security Council expressed its concern on 11 October over the deterioration of the situation in the centre of the country where frequent clashes are reported in the Dogon area between local inhabitants and Fulani shepherds who have fallen under Jihadist influence.
There is a similar challenge in Niger where presidential and legislative elections are due on 27 December. The country is caught between Boko Haram in the South East and a proliferation of Jihadists at its Western border with Mali. In Burkina Faso, presidential and parliamentary elections are due on a day yet to be specified. Attacks of Jihadist groups affiliated to Al Qaida or to the Islamic State have become frequent in the north of the country. Since early 2015, over 640 people have died and 500,000 people have been displaced. Elsewhere in West Africa, the re-election of incumbent Presidents is creating serious tensions. In Guinea Conakry, five protesters and one police officer were killed on 15 October 2019, during a demonstration against government plans to review the constitution in order to allow 81-year old President Alpha Condé to run for a third presidential term by end of 2020.

Ivorian president, Alassane Ouattara.

In Côte d’Ivoire, 77-year old President Alassane Ouattara is encouraged by his supporters to run for a third term scheduled for October. This could be possible owing to an amendment of the constitution which hitherto limited the number of mandates to only two, which was voted on in 2016. The dreaded scenario of a campaign of three opposing former presidents, the incumbent Ouattara and his predecessors, Henri Konan Bédié and Laurent Gbagbo, cannot be ruled out. There are fears that the competition may lead to a crisis similar to the one which caused 3,000 deaths in 2010-2011. In 2019, Bédié resumed his xenophobic rhetoric, targeting migrant workers, and accused the government of issuing identity documents to foreigners in order to rig the 2020 election. The Ivorian government is also trying to prevent Gbagbo who was acquitted by the International Criminal Court of charges of crimes against humanity and lives under supervised liberty in Belgium, to campaign. The former spokesman of the Forces Nouvelles rebels and former speaker of the National Assembly, Guillaume Soro stands as an outsider. Togolese President, Faure Gnassingbe who is expected to seek a fourth presidential mandate in February or March, does not face this problem since a new constitution allows him to run for two more mandates. But the Roman Catholic bishops warn against possible new tensions and suspect election rigging. During the local elections of June 2019, church observers were not allowed inside the polling stations.

In the Horn of Africa, Somalia is supposed to hold its first “one person one vote” elections for half a century, by end of 2020. But in October 2019, the UN warned that further progress is needed, when it comes to peacebuilding and security. In May 2019, a UN report underscored the increasing frequency of rebel mortar attacks. Peace Nobel Prize-winner and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in October 2019 that Ethiopia is ready to hold its first free and fair elections next May. But the potential for violence is serious. Opposition activist and founder of the Oromia Media Network, Jawar Mohammed announced in October 2019 that he might challenge the Prime Minister in the elections and accused security forces of trying to orchestrate an attack against him. A death toll of 67 persons was recorded after protests by his supporters in Addis Ababa and across the Oromia region
In the Comoros, President Azali Assoumani, who seized power in a coup in 1999 and won a referendum in 2018 to extend term limits will try to secure a majority at the 19 January parliament elections. The opposition has already dismissed the referendum as illegal and threatens to boycott it if it does not have a say in the composition of the electoral national commission and if Comorians from abroad are not allowed to vote.
In the Seychelles, the question is whether the candidate of the opposition coalition Linyon Demokratik Seselwa will defeat the incumbent President Danny Faure at the December presidential elections. That might indeed be the outcome since, in 2016, the opposition won a majority at the parliamentary elections.
Legislative and local elections are due in Cameroon on the 9 February 2020. The chairman of the opposition Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon, Maurice Kamto has decided to open the lists of his party to civil society activists. Anglophone militants who fight for the secession of Western Cameroon have been released as well but tensions remain high. President Paul Biya remains very reluctant to increase decentralization and sees federalism as a Pandora’s Box.
In Chad, the long-delayed legislative polls are scheduled for March. But a number of conditions must still be met, including the lifting of the state of emergency in the three provinces of Ouaddai, Sila and Tibesti and the enrolment of young voters. In addition, the Independent National Electoral Commission says that the election will depend upon donor funding.

In the Central African Republic, the UN and the African and European Unions want the presidential and parliament elections to take place on the 27 December. But the opposition leader, Anicet Georges Dologuélé suspects President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s supporters are preparing wholesale rigging and considers that, holding such polls in a country where 70% of the territory is in the hands of armed groups,
is not realistic.
Presidential and parliament elections are scheduled in Burundi in July. President Pierre Nkurunziza has said he will not run but this does not mean he will relinquish power. Pundits in Bujumbura stress that Nkurunziza, who sparked a huge crisis with over 1,200 deaths and 400,000 refugees, when he decided to run for a third mandate in 2015, in violation of the Arusha Peace Agreement, is aiming at restoring the monarchy. If there is an election, the opposition is unlikely to win. Twenty leaders of the main opposition party, the national Council for Liberty were arrested in October 2019.
There are growing fears in the neighbouring Congolese province of South Kivu of a regional war that might erupt as a result of alliances between local warring factions. Since March 2019, Bembe, Fulero and Nyindu Mai Mai groups are fighting Banyamulenge militias. Burundian rebels of the Red-Tabara, Forebu, FPB, and FNL groups have joined the Mai Mai’s side while Rwandan National Congress (RNC) rebels who want to overthrow President Paul Kagame of Rwanda are fighting the Banyamulenge side. Local people fear that Hutu rebels of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and of a dissident group, the National Council for the Revival of Democracy may join the Banyamulenge, with the support of the Burundian army, increasing the risk of Rwandan army intervention.

In Southern Africa, everyone hopes Zimbabwe will make some progress towards overcoming its economic crisis. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube predicted in September, that the economy would rebound in 2020 after a 5.2% contraction of the GDP in 2019. But everything depends on talks scheduled in early 2020 to pay off U.S.$ 2 billion of arrears to the World Bank and to the African Development Bank.
In Mozambique, MPs should take office in January after the validation of the presidential and legislative elections in December by the Constitutional Council which were won in October by the ruling Frelimo party, while the incumbent President Felipe Nyusi was re-elected for a second term with a landslide 73% victory. Yet, the opposition Renamo party does not accept its defeat and has called for the annulment of the results, which it calls a “circus”.
François Misser

Mexico. Being a priest in Acapulco.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Once the Pearl of the Pacific, it is now a hell inhabited by those involved in the drugs trade and warring criminal bands. Acapulco has become one of the most dangerous cities in the world. One of its parish priests, Father Hugo Hernandez, describes it for us.

Saint Nicholas of Bari is a small blue church on the slopes of the mountains embracing the Bay of Acapulco. From above, the city looks like a semicircle of houses along the road leading to a strip of large hotels, with the blue Pacific beyond. Following the Miguel Aleman Avenue, the coastal road between the city and the sea is full of restaurants, shops and hotels. It was here that the film ‘Idol of Acapulco’ starring ‘rock and roll’ singer Elvis Presley was made in 1963. “You can’t say no to Acapulco”, Elvis sang. The city is also famous for the Quebrada Divers, young men who perform several times a day, diving from as high as 35 metres into the narrow, shallow inlets.

The name ‘Acapulco’ comes from the Nahuatl language and Aca-pōl-co means ‘the place where the reeds were washed away’.
Over the years, the illicit drugs trade has struck even this most famous Mexican holiday resort. The city of Acapulco is home to no less than five drugs cartels (the Sinaloa Cartel, Los Zetas, the South Gulf Cartel, the Independent Cartel of Acapulco and the Familia Michoacana Cartel which govern the sale of drugs. Acapulco is an important port and is located on the drugs route.
Extortion is a huge business for the gangs. There are no exceptions. Whether shopkeeper or doctor, anyone with a job and an income has to pay protection money to the boss in charge of his territory. Father Hugo, 61, originally from Guerrero State says: “A few months ago, a travelling circus came to this city. When the gangs demanded protection money, they came back one evening and opened fire on the spectators, killing about ten of them”.

To understand how the ‘Pearl of the Pacific’ became a place where crime rules, we must go back to the eighties. The drug traffickers were attracted to Acapulco by its climate – in the Sierra de Guerrero it is perfect for growing opium poppies – the strategic location of its port and especially for the extreme unreliability of its institutions. Corruption quickly became the norm and it is still widespread. “A policeman will earn about 200 pesos (about 10 Euro, NDR)”, Father Hugo explains; having been in pastoral ministry for 34 years, he is familiar with these things. “The drug dealers will offer him two thousand and promise him more if he turns a blind eye while they carry out their crimes. They will even give him a new cellphone and so the policeman becomes a hàlcon, a falcon, a spy who observes the territory and calls the cartel to warn them of danger. He may also be told beforehand where a consignment or a murder is to take place and he will, of course, be somewhere else at the time, rather than intervene”.

The government knows everything. “When they understood how profitable the drug trade can be, the local police demanded their share of the profits. They demanded the traffickers give them 25% of the profits in exchange for complete freedom of action in their territory”, the priest recounts. In the eighties, this ‘State extortion’ created an alliance between the cartels and the government. Officially, the government was at war with the traffickers and newspapers told of the army burning illegal poppy and marijuana cultivations. But the real story was that the government forces only acted against those who refused to pay protection money to the government. At the same time, the upper levels of the state were being destroyed by corruption while the army soldiers helped load the drugs onto lorries.
The situation changed when the corrupt politicians wanted first 50% and then 70% of the profits. The bosses decided to monopolise the protection racket. They stopped paying off the police and kidnapped policemen, civil servants and governors. They demanded ransoms and reaffirmed their superiority. That started a period of violence. In the first decade of this century the great cartels divided into smaller groups, often fighting among themselves. The response of the federal government of the then President Felipe Calderon was to send in the army and fill the streets with armed soldiers. To no avail. Acapulco was brought to its knees, tourists disappeared, unemployment rose while murder and extortion were so widespread that they became the norm.

That is now life in Acapulco. It is balanced on a knife-edge between paying protection money and trying to live a normal life; people go home early in the evenings so as to avoid the shootings. There is little one can do in such a situation. Father Hugo organises support groups for the victims of violence.
“We try to work through griefs and traumas and we try especially to avoid the desire for revenge”, Father Hugo explains. “Regarding the youth, the key is to re-educate them with values and make them aware of the harm they are doing to themselves and to others by agreeing to make easy money from those criminals”. However, despite the efforts of the priest, many young people have given up going to the church of Saint Nicholas of Bari to join the gangs, following the false dream of a better life. “I often see them passing by with their new clothes and a pistol in the pockets”, Father Hugo says.

The traffickers are always on the lookout for young people to join their ranks. Father Hugo comments: “Some young men join the gangs simply to be able to show off the latest smartphone to their friends. As in the case of the halons, the cellphone become a working tool to collect protection money. These days there is no exchange of cash as payments are made electronically. Little by little these young people disappear. They even leave school to join the traffickers”. The wages are good, promotion is swift but death, too, comes just as quickly. The same applies to the girls. The hàlconas end up as full members of the gang that controls the territory, or they are exploited as prostitutes”.
In conclusion Father Hugo says: “I myself, right from my childhood, have lived in a context of physical and psychological violence. We are all affected by this. When I meet these people, I find they are not evil but empty. They have all had much taken from them. They have been harmed and have suffered. And they react with violence. Even when I see before me what looks like an evil monster, I try not to go by appearances but to enter the heart of the person. Before attacking others, these people have themselves been victims. It is this suffering that moves me to continue working as a priest in this city”.
Gabriele Monaco

Middle East 2020. The real ‘Arab Spring’?

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Syria and Iraq. The central role of the Russia in the region. The possible new nuclear deal. A peace solution in Yemen. The intensification of the street protests.

President Bashar al Assad has won the war in Syria; he and the Ba’ath party shall remain in power and the West’s drive for regime change have failed. The Government in Damascus has managed to take back the majority of the territory, even if the Kurds still control the large area that extends from Manbij to Al-Qaim. Even in that case, thanks to Trump’s decision to pull out, Syrian forces have resumed a dialogue with the Kurds, who appear to be heading back into Damascus’s influence.
This will be one of the key developments in 2020, but just how quickly and smoothly it unveils depends on what the Americans choose to do – and how the Turks might respond.The Trump White House has grown tired of its wars in the Middle East – and Trump shows little interest
in foreign affairs.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The U.S. president seems ready to stop supporting the Kurds of the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), thus it can be said that Trump has contributed to the process of Syrian reconciliation that will likely intensify in 2020. Concurrently, the Syrian war has slammed open the door for Russia’s return to the region. Moscow has regained a central role in the Middle East, through its involvement in Syria. Russia will maintain the naval base at Tartous in the Mediterranean and it has also shown its ability to act as a referee – a much better one than Washington. Putin has managed to protect the Assad presidency, not only militarily, but also by being able to address the concerns of Syria’s rival Israel, negotiating to have Hezbollah and Iranian special forces – far from the Israeli border. Moscow may face a challenge in balancing Iranian needs in 2020 but Iran itself has become dependent on Russian support to allow bilateral relations to suffer; especially, as both Rohani and Putin are fully aware of the different goals they are pursuing in,
and through, Syria.

Israel, Iran, Iraq…
As far as Israel is concerned, whether Benny Gantz could succeed in forming a new government by the start of 2020, but his Blue and White Party does not have a sufficient majority in the Knesset to prevent a third election, which could take in the early months of 2020. Regardless, whether Gantz or Netanyahu, Israel’s strategic approach will not change, and it will continue to hit Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria with little opposition from Russia. Israel could take advantage of the intensifying chaos in Iraq to pursue more attacks against Iran’s allied militias there as well.
With Syria returning to some kind of normalcy, Iraq could become a more frequent target of Israeli raids – and not least because there are emerging, if ambiguous ties, between Baghdad and Tel Aviv.

Last November, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, resigned after weeks of violent anti-government protests that have rocked the country. The American presence remains intrusive and the presence of U.S. troops may well intensify in 2020 as Washington looks for ways to maintain a presence in the in its effort to contain Iranian influence, even if, Iran and Iraq signed an agreement toward establishing more and freer bilateral trade, contrasting with American sanctions imposed against Tehran. In 2020, the trade relationship is expected to expand in volume and value, according to the agreements signed in 2019.
The Israeli strikes in Iran could not have occurred without Iraqi and American knowledge and acquiescence and they prove that Israel’s main regional priority will continue to be the elimination of pro-Iranian Shiite militias wherever they might be. The fear, now more than before, given Bashar al-Asad’s endurance in Syria – is that Iran could find a way to consolidate its Shiite crescent from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. This strategy includes the obstruction of Iran’s missiles and its nuclear program – though Iran denies this, stressing it is pursuing civilian nuclear technology only.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani.

In this scenario, Trump, who appears determined to abandon Middle East Wars, might refocus his attentions to renegotiating a new ‘nuclear deal‘ with Iran. Trump would use such a deeal to boost his electoral chances, perhaps reserving its formalization as an ‘October Surprise’, to be announced in the weeks before the U.S. presidential election in November 2020. Russia and Syria’s ‘victory’ in the War has made such a deal necessary, if Trump wants to leave the Middle East and do so, offering assurances to Washington’s allies/clients. A new ‘nuclear deal’ and the inevitable improvement in relations between Iran and the West would strengthen Iranian pragmatists at the expense of the more ideological figures, who have driven the pursuit of regional hegemony, known as the “Shia Crescent”. Such a Deal, moreover, would allow Moscow – which has maintained close and friendly ties with Syria’s and Iran’s enemies in the Middle East, from Israel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – to help weave Damascus’s position back into the fore of inter-Arab and international diplomacy.

There have already been rumors of improving ties in response to Turkey’s military operation against the Kurds. In late 2018, the UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus and Syria can expect to be re-admitted to the Arab League in 2020. Even Hamas, which broke ties with Damascus in the wake of the War, appears ready for reconciliation (Source: al-Monitor). The fact that the Saudis have shown interest in acquiring the Russian S-400 missile defense system, during President Putin’s visit to Riyadh in summer 2019, suggests that Moscow is in a position to ease Syria’s re-entry into the good books of the Gulf States’ – America’s closest Arab allies – in 2020.

Yemen
In this conciliatory context, which forces the United States to come to terms with the fact that Russia’s superpower ambitions are on the ascendant, a solution involving compromise between the Houthi forces and the Saudi-UAE-US backed Yemeni government led by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, reviving the Stockholm talks that started in 2018.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom’s de-facto ruler; especially, as far as foreign affairs are concerned, expressed hopes for a political solution to the five-year long conflict. A renewed thaw in relations between the United States and Iran, with Russia as ‘guarantor’ could move diplomacy in such a direction in 2020.

The Arab Spring. The Real One?
In 2019, there have been protests in Iraq, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt . The latest episodes in Iraq and Lebanon suggest that whatever phenomenon occurred eight years ago – flawed, and not necessarily democratic in nature by any means – suggest that the Middle East and the Arab world in general are experiencing a transformation, even if it is unclear what shape it will take. The West has corrupted the Arab Spring in most cases (especially Libya and Syria), ‘artificially’ allowing rebels to gain the upper hand, in many cases resulting in the erosion of the secular rule and secular values, advanced by the Arab republics and dictatorships mirroring the Nasserist and Baathist models.
While Sudan and Algeria have seen intense and prolonged protests – though, it should be noted that Algeria was the first Arab country to experience a ‘democratic’ impulse in the period from 1989-1992) – the scope of this article is to focus on the Middle East proper. Even there, protests in Lebanon and Iraq, the most intense, have also been prolonged. And there are few signs that solutions are forthcoming. The protesters have rejected all of their respective governments’ offers. In other words, the differences between the rulers and subjects remains as deep as ever. Interestingly, Iraq and Lebanon both have Shiite majorities and are ostensible ‘democracies’. By comparison, the Kingdoms – ever more Constitutional in nature – of Morocco and Jordan have fared better. Neither of those two Kingdoms has experienced the intense foreign exploitation of internal ethnic and confessional differences that have characterized Iraq and Lebanon since their (flawed) creation from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.

If there is some hope for deeper change, it is that the current protest movements cannot even be suspected of being radical Islamic ones. They reach across the various socio-cultural strata, hinting that their complaints have deep roots. The firebrand leaders of the Shiite communities of Lebanon and Iraq, Hassan Nasrallah and Moqtada al-Sadr have encouraged the protests against governments, featuring significant Shiite political influences. Perhaps, in Iraq, where post-Saddam political dialogue has mainly occurred within the Shiite community, there may exist a more religious character to the mobilization in some cases. In Lebanon, rather, as L’Orient le Jour writes, the wave of protests appears to have re-discovered the unity between various segments of the Lebanese population, fractured deeply since the 1975-1990 civil war.
Similarly, in Egypt, massive demonstrations against the Government of President al-Sisi (the first since the coup of July 2013) have not involved the Muslim Brotherhood, or other Islamists. The protesters, mostly young men, did not even challenge the legality of al-Sisi’s rule. They are talking to the streets to express their economic frustrations, the absence of job prospects and the anger against the vexations of the security apparatus. These grievances are not new. They have long existed in Egypt – and typically, government austerity measures and lifting of subsidies of basic food items, has always triggered riots. But, the Muslim Brotherhood was able to exploit and manipulate the anger, channeling it into often excessive religious piety. This has not happened now.
And for this very reason, the current movements should raise even more concerns than the 2011 protests, which have, with the exception of Tunisia, left the status-quo intact. What started to happen in 2019, and which will continue in 2020, might well be the real ‘Arab Spring’.
Alessandro Bruno

Asia 2020. A continent where uncertainty reigns.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Eight countries, in all, are due to go to the polls to elect presidents or just parliaments. The trade war between the United States and China will determine how the year unfolds. Uncertainty will continue in Hong Kong. All eyes are on Japan as it prepares to host the next Olympics.

The year 2020 promises many challenges and commitments, with growing signs of economic crisis due in part to the trade war between the United States and China and customs initiatives by Trump affecting various other partners in the continent.

There is also a strategic problem with China’s growing military presence, firstly in the contested areas with a number of countries in the South China Sea, inviting rearmament and a more aggressive stance by its neighbours, and with the USA uncertain whether to adopt a role of leadership or isolationism. Forecasts regarding the severe consequences of rising seas-levels, atmospheric pollution and soil erosion cast a long shadow on a continent already burdened with demographic decline, insufficient welfare, economic and financial restructuring and vast migratory movements.
The Tokyo Olympics, set to take place in July and August 2020, may help to ease tensions and worries, but they will also be experienced as a continental event and they will act as a stimulus for sport and its diffusion as an instrument of peace.

Elections
Three Central Asian countries will go to the polls. Tajikistan, on a date to be fixed to elect the two houses of parliament, a National Assembly with 34 members and a Representatives Assembly with 63 members of parliament, and the president, to re-elect or replace Emomali Rahmon with a high probability that his son, Rustam Rahmon, will succeed him. Kyrgyzstan will elect its Supreme Council of 120 members, also on a date yet to be chosen, and lastly, Kazakhstan will hold elections on 30 April to choose their representatives: 32 members of a total of 47 for the Senate and 107 for the House of Representatives.

The Far East and South East Asia are the other areas holding elections. Taiwan will vote on 11 January in a first round to choose a president. These elections are important not only for the government of the island but also for its delicate international relations, especially its tense relations with the People’s Republic of China. It is hostile to the out-going president Tsai Ing-wen who however, as head of his Democratic Progressive Party, is standing as a candidate for a second mandate relying for victory on the disaffection of his fellow citizens regarding reunification with continental China.
Peking would want this to be based on the idea of a ‘Two-system country’, already being applied in Macau and Hong Kong but which, in the former British colony, has shown how difficult it is to combine real autonomy with the directives of the Chinese government.
The January elections will, inevitably, heighten regional and strategic tensions and, in a difficult situation for an advanced industrial economy aimed at exporting, will also create for the electors the problem of greater isolation which Peking has promised to foster if Tsai were
to win a second mandate.
The January presidential elections will be accompanied by those for the single parliamentary house, the Legislative Yuan, which will reveal – apart from the abundant internal issues – how the various parties allied with the ‘Pan-Green’ coalition headed by the Democratic Progressive Party, and the ‘Pan-Blue’ coalition led by the Kuomintang, view future relations with the allies and with Peking.

On 15 April South Korea will vote for its single house of parliament with its 300 members. The focus of the election campaigns is on economic growth, the increase of welfare, corruption, youth unemployment and, the inevitable but never said to be a priority, relations with the North and those necessary but always tense relations with its American ally. The contenders for control of the legislative power are especially the centrist Democratic Party and the party of Liberty Korea, the former said to be leading in the opinion polls due in part to the support which the ruling president, the Catholic pacifist and environmentalist Moon Jae-in has gained from the elections in 2017.
On 30 June Mongolia will open the voting centres to elect the Gran Hural, its single-house parliament. There are two basic themes between which the electorate is asked to consider. The first is the attempt by the president Battulga Khaltmaa to impose himself as the ‘strong man’ of the country, limiting the power of parliament. The second is that of economic hardship and especially the unequal distribution of wealth and the profits from the mines, the chief source of income for the state but handed over to foreign companies including Chinese companies, which also increases tensions with Peking.
Singapore could go to the polls before the end of the year, despite uncertainty regarding the date, to elect a new parliament the fourth generation of politicians since independence, new in its list of names but, as far as one can see, it will show an increase in seats by the 4G. Nevertheless, it is doubtful whether the hitherto dominant party, the People’s Action Party, will have its power curbed. There are increasing fears of an ever greater impact of the trade war between Washington and Peking, and the city-state is already feeling its effects. A possible deterioration could force the electorate to confirm its confidence in a tried and trusted political class, or, on the other hand, to seek a solution in new faces and new ideas, to what is seen as a situation of stalemate which does not absolve the government led by Lee Hsien Loong.
Still in the political sphere, but with broad repercussions, are the last two important electoral returns planned for 2020.

That of the Legislative Council of Hong Kong in September is not only in danger of being suspended but will certainly become a new focus point for independence movements to oppose the constant erosion of the rights formally guaranteed to the Special Autonomous Region by the Sino-British Treaty and by the Law of the former colony. The situation has yet to be countered by an elitist and easily manipulated parliament, or the government it represents. The ‘Umbrella Movements’ of the 2014 autumn came about by having its demands for elections with a universal vote denied by Peking and the situation lasting since June 2019 is also a result of this, with claims that developed into a secessionist fringe. The intransigence of the local executive, Chinese pressure, and the brutal policy of the police have made the demands of the protesters increasingly unlikely to be heard in dialogue.

Dialogue, is, instead, taking place between the military which, up to 2011 held formal power in Myanmar and still control the activities of the parliament and the government, and the national League for Democracy, which holds the majority in parliament and which has in the Nobel Peace Prize winner, Mrs Aung San Suu Kyi, an important point of historical reference in influential government roles. Despite frequent setbacks during the second half of 2019, the road to the renewal of parliament is open, with people due to go to the polls in November 2020.
There is no hiding the difficulties involved, already shown by the constitutional reform underway which aims to remove the generals from their grip on the country; nevertheless, the elections might well consolidate this young democracy which only had its first elected parliament in 2015.
Even with the help of elections which are unlikely to bring a majority change, the former Burma will provide impetus to the process of national reconciliation despite the ongoing conflict between the army and ethnic militias close to the northern and eastern borders, and attempt to come to terms with an economy in stagnation in an effort to improve the living conditions of one of the poorest populations in Asia.

Stefano Vecchia

Music. Gabacho Maroc. A Connecting Sound.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Afro-Maghrebian percussion, ngoni, chants and choreography, driven by infallible and colorful arrangements make it possible to create a rare and beautiful music. A perfect dialogue among Western, African and Oriental instruments.

Gabacho Maroc is one of the most popular music bands in present-day Mediterranean Africa, a land where the sun sets among the dunes, where the Arab culture encounters the Berber and Tuareg culture and Islam is the religion of the majority.
In those parts, the music of the majority is called Gnawa. It takes its name from the homonymous culture brought to those zones by black slaves from Sub-Saharan Africa. It is a culture marked by a strong mystical element incarnate in sound by hypnotic rhythms, especially adapted to accompany rites that are similar to those of animists where the border between spirituality and trance, syncretism and music-therapy is especially enfeebled.

The sounds are strange but quite fascinating to western ears. The basic instrument is the santir (a plucked stringed instrument that comes between a double base and a guitar), and the vocal harmonies are often accompanied by hand-clapping.
The music is very popular in Morocco where many groups perform in the streets. It is also often found in Europe, especially in the urban centres of France where Magreb immigration is strongest.
Of the many groups that have moved abroad, one of the most creative and entertaining is the Gabacho Maroc group: eight Moroccan and Algerian musicians who have been based in France for some years and have performed more than 200 concerts in Asia and South America as well as in European countries. The Gabacho like to combine idioms and rhythms but also different stylistic schools, moving easily from ethnic rock to jazz and to the more traditional Gnawa music.

Their album of last year, issued to mark their fifth year together, has the meaningful title of Tawassol (in Arabic it means Berbers connection): a production that is cultural and refined, festive and popular. Not for nothing the specialised critics chose it as the best album of world music for 2018. It is the ripe fruit of the search for dialogue between schools of expression that uses the spiritual anxiety that pervades these cultures as a binding force. The response of the public regularly oscillates between amazement and overpowering enthusiasm; because, as Patrick Duval, the Director of Hauts de Garonne Festival stated: “Dialogue among Western, African and Oriental instruments has rarely been engaged so beautifully. Borrowing from world music, jazz, and traditional Gnawa music, their repertoire is variegated, festive and refined. This project, with endless horizons, helps to revive the concept of fusion”.
Franz Coriasco

Africa’s Hotspots in 2020.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

This year there will be several security hotspots around the continent. We focus on six African countries three in the centre (Cameroon, the Central African Republic, DR. Congo) and three in the West (Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali).

On 9th February 2020 national and local elections are scheduled to take place in Cameroon. At the moment, the security situation in the country does not guarantee a peaceful and fair vote. And this for several reasons. In the north of Cameroon, Jihadists belonging to Boko Haram or to the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), continue their attacks and force many people to flee their homes. In Western regions, autonomist militias fight with security forces and disrupt public services.

Therefore, in those areas the polling operations cannot run smoothly. In addition to that, the regime led by President Paul Biya has created a political system that denies the opposition the possibility to campaign freely. On 25th November 2019, one of the leading opposition parties, the Mouvement pour la Renaissance du Cameroun (Cameroon Renaissance Movement, MRC) announced it will not run in the polls. MRC and other parties claim that the October 2018 presidential election (that Biya won with 71% of the votes) was rigged.They fear that also the 2020 vote will not be fair.
But boycotting the ballots might not be the best choice, because it would in any case exclude Biya’s rivals from power for 5 years.

The Central African Republic descended into chaos in 2013 with the revolt that ended the regime of President Francois Bozizé. Armed militias (broadly speaking, of Muslim orientation), supported by some foreign actors (especially Chad) took control of the territory and still try to impose their power, especially in exploiting mineral and natural resources. Militias composed of people of other confessions (broadly speaking, Christians and animists) appeared and started to fight back. Foreign powers, such as Russia but also France, intervened in 2019 to stabilize the country and the so-called Khartoum Agreement was signed between the government and several armed groups. This agreement apparently reduced the level of violence (at least in some areas of the country), but the situation remains unstable and the violence could re-explode at any moment. The fabric of the nation has been torn apart for years and it will take many more years to mend it. Ethnic tensions, especially those concerning Peuls (an ethnicity present in Western and Central Africa), are increasing and Jihadists (the majority of Peuls are Muslim) could exploit this situation. The presidential and national elections that are scheduled for 27th December 2020 could either be a step up or a step down into an abyss.

In 2020 the Democratic Republic of Congo will be still ravaged by the forces that have been destabilizing it for many years. Different militias will fight against security forces to exploit the natural resources in different areas, especially in North and South Kivu provinces. Some local militants joined the Islamic State and increased their attacks in 2019. Other militias are apparently supported by foreign powers like Rwanda and Uganda. In different zones, ethnic tension between the different groups is increasingly degenerating in violence. The government is not able to manage those emergencies due to the rift between President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor, Joseph Kabila. These two leaders reached a much-criticized power-sharing agreement. But things are not proceeding smoothly. Kabila supporters still control large parts of the state apparatus and resist any attempt to cede their power to the winners of 2018 election. Vast parts of the civil society contest the result of the vote, so the legitimacy of Tshisekedi is not recognized by parts of the population. Insecurity allows the spread of phenomena like sexual violence and the Ebola fever epidemic.

Troubles in the West
Nigeria, one of the economic powers of the continent, is in troubled waters. The security threats affecting the country are worsening. Jihadist groups (Boko Haram and ISWAP) are still active in the north, despite massive operations by security forces. Ethnic clashes in the so-called Middle Belt (the states in the geographic middle of Nigeria) between Peuls (called Fulani in Nigeria) and other groups are more and more violent. Crime (including kidnapping for ransom and piracy) and corruption are rampant. The political class is divided and mistrust of politicians is widespread.

In recent years Burkina Faso gradually descended into chaos. Despite its vibrant civil society (inspired by the example and words of Thomas Sankara), this country saw the degradation of its institutions since the fall of Blaise Compaore’s regime in 2014. Since 2015, terrorism has entered the scene and in 2016 the Ouagadougou attacks showed that Jihadists linked to Al Qaeda were able to strike also in areas of West Africa previously considered as safe. The security forces, due to their many problems, are not able to confront the terrorist threat. In 2019 attacks increased, and Jihadists from Burkina Faso are spilling over the neighboring countries (like Cote d’Ivoire, Benin, Togo and Ghana). In 2020 Burkina Faso will still be in turmoil, and this turmoil could drag down those countries. They are now in a better condition, but do not seem to have the strength to face the mounting Jihadist violence. The Ouagadougou government has asked for the help of Western partners, especially France. But this created controversy among Burkinabe people, who fear a new colonization by the former colonial power. The political tension will likely increase in 2020 also due to the campaign for presidential and legislative elections that will take place in November.

Despite a considerable military effort from the international community (especially from France), Mali is a country ravaged by Jihadism (both international and local) and by increasing ethnic tensions (like those between Peuls and Dogons). The insecurity that started in 2012 in the north of the country (when Tuareg armed groups tried to create an independent state) moved southward and now the center of Mali is also a hotbed of terrorism. Apparently, in many areas the Malian government can affirm its authority only in some towns (protected by the military) but the surroundings are in the hand of extremists that exercise state-like powers.These six countries will not be the only hotspots of Africa in 2020. But they are a good example of the hurdles that African countries find on their path to prosperity. Each one of these countries has at least some of the capabilities and the whole responsibility to solve its own problems, even if these are overwhelming and are due to the influence of its neighbors.
Andrea Carbonari

Widen the horizon of Empowered Women.

Sunday, 1 December 2019 8:00

Concluding the Special Synod of Bishops on the Amazon, Pope Francis in his homily said with a witty remark that the final document speaking of women falls “short” because of the importance of women in “transmitting the faith and in preserving the culture.”

For the laity to be privileged actors, “the Church in the Amazon wants to expand the spaces for a more incisive female presence in the Church” and promote “their active participation in the ecclesial community. If the Church loses women in its totality and real dimension, the Church is exposed to sterility (Pope Francis).” In the Amazon region, women lead most Catholic communities. Hence, the request to create a ministry for “the women leaders of the community”, requesting the permanent diaconate for them.

However, a special Synod risks focusing only on that particular region. The Church and the society, on the other hand, risk considering its conclusions as important and valid only for that region. The risk increases when names such as Brazil and Amazonia enter the stories and make us forget that there are other important forests in Africa and Asia oxygenating the world and that the Amazon itself covers nine states.

It is significant that at the Synod’s vigil, on September 20-21^st in Cochabamba city (Bolivia) there was held an important event that went unnoticed: the 6^th annual summit of the National Network of Women in Defense of Mother Earth (RENAMAT). A wide range of women – indigenous, peasants, youth, adults and girls -, arrived from different communities impacted by mining, or in resistance against the mining companies, gathered to reaffirm their commitment of struggling, which was professed as a dream back on 2013. It was then when they decided to resist to mining extraction, opening a space of their own.

The meeting went on with the usual indigenous ceremonies, with thanks to the Pachamama and the traditional coca leaf picheo (A special way of sucking coca leaf). Then the assembly evaluated the work done and honored Isabel Anangono, leader of the Intag Valley (Ecuador). Intag Valley after twenty years of struggle managed to stop two mining projects that were going to plunder the territory. In Cochabamba, it was the symbol of women’s struggles and of this struggle brotherhood throughout all Latin America.

The dispossession generates loneliness, sadness, pressure and concern among women and the Network wants to be the political engine worthy of accompanying the daily struggle. However, in this fight, women do not want to forget their most emotional and personal aspects and that is why in the meeting, they made typically female healing islands with massages, hairstyles, hugs, laughs and tears in the view of the self-assessment of each one of them.

To this also contributed a contest of dancing and songs where the indigenous folklore intermingled with the Afro-Ecuadorian one. The political analysis highlighted the environmental emergency leading peoples towards a catastrophe because of the looting by the hands of state projects. This awareness brought up the decision of taking solidarity actions expressed in a declaration in defense of the ecosystem.

Women, in the Upland plant beans, potatoes, quinoa and fruit trees such as apples and peaches. Therefore, each seed gave the name to the chosen projects focused on three guidelines: what RENAMAT is asked to do in the communities, the achievements that are expected at the national level, and the contents that should be worked on at the Itinerant School of the RENAMAT.

The final knitting contest wanted to remember how each woman spins her struggle in her territory, but the result should be a collective weave of resistance, defense of life and a better future for all. Gathered from all sides, each one shares the Network, the obstacles and the hopes so life would increasingly grow in the communities.

Pope Paul VI already said it very well: “The time is coming, the time has come when the women’s vocation is fulfilled, the time in which women acquire in the world an influence, a weight, a power never reached before. That is why, at this moment when humanity faces such a profound mutation, women imbued by the Gospel’s inspiration can help so much to prevent humanity’s decay.”

John Paul Pezzi, mccj
VIVAT International NGO
with consultative special status at UN

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