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The Pacific Ocean.

Saturday, 1 February 2020 8:00

The Pacific, almost twice as big as the Atlantic, with an area of 161 million square kilometres, is a single body of water covering about one third of the planet.

The sudden ascent of China has transformed this area into a theatre stage where a great confrontation is taking place between the great powers that will determine the future of the planet. Its importance is due to the economic explosion of this area of Asia, in the wake of that of China and the exponential growth of maritime commerce which, from the East flows to the West and vice-versa, absorbing 63% of global container traffic.

Oil tankers in Malacca Straits.

Its routes are obliged to pass through such places as the Indonesian Straits (Sonda, Lombok and Malacca), those essential places of transit that have acquired such great geostrategic importance. If we look closely, we can see that the so-called ‘first chain of islands’ to be found in the Pacific, starting from Vietnam and extending to the south of Malaysia and curving north from the Philippines towards Japan, forms a ring that encloses the east coast of China. It would be no exaggeration to affirm that whoever controls these choke points holds the keys to the global economy, an economy that is today so interconnected and globalised that any collision between ships or warlike tensions would be sufficient to cause the closure of these points (through which, besides, about half of all the crude oil of the world market passes) and cause a chain reaction whose effects would weigh upon the international economy. The crucial nature of these points of passage is such that it explains both the central position they occupy in world politics and the resulting competition to establish control and supremacy over them, as well as the motive why the great regional powers (such as China, Japan and India) have set up military bases and deployed naval forces to amplify their presence in the seas of the South West Indian Ocean. This has also given rise to the huge US military presence in the area which may be explained by the concern of Washington to keep control of the routes, by reinforcing ties with the main allies and partners of the past (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and Australia), and to contain Chinese expansion.

This has placed China in a disadvantaged position since its exports could depend upon the good will of the United States which enjoys absolute military superiority.
Nevertheless, the USA, despite its domination, is putting pressure on its regional allies to compete with China which, to counter such a threat, has prepared a plan of transformation for its own navy which will enable it to expand its projected presence by passing from the defence of its coasts to the substantial control of the China Sea and to being a challenge on the high seas. In the meantime it has launched an asymmetric type of strategy with prohibited areas, consisting of the creation of artificial islands in the South and East China Seas, upon which defensive anti-aircraft and naval defensive armaments have been installed. This action has the precise aim of limiting the effectiveness of aircraft carriers which, historically, have represented the projected power of the United States. In the area in question, there are, besides, a number of historically controversial issues which have been recently reignited both regarding the control of the sea-routes and the exploitation of the oil deposits to be found below the sea-bed. As a result, every island, atoll or rock may be a cause of dispute since they may potentially be strategically important.

A group of desolate volcanic islets known by North and South Koreans as Dokdo and by Japanese as Takeshima.

Apart from the dispute between the two Koreas, that between Japan and Russia over ownership of the Kuril Islands, now the object of talks between Tokyo and Moscow in the hope of reaching agreement, is still active. Furthermore, Tokyo has disagreements on two other fronts: with China over the Senkaku/Diaoy Islands and with Korea over the rocky Takeshima Archipelago located in the southern part of the Sea of Japan, despite the desire of the USA to reach a definitive resolution of the problem so as to unite the two oriental powers and strengthen mutual interests. A further historical bone of contention is that involving China and Taiwan whose economies have created such a close relationship as to render it unlikely that it should descend into armed conflict. This same evaluation, in addition, may also apply to Sino-Japanese relations. Last, but by no means least, there is the conflict between China and Vietnam which, in more recent periods has considerably deteriorated, the crux of which is a dispute over waters claimed by both countries using historical arguments. In detail, the area in question is that around the Spratly and Paracel Islands whose surrounding waters constitute a strategic passage zone, besides being rich in fish and natural resources such as oil deposits.

It is interesting to note how Vietnam is seeking to weave a united anti-Chinese front among the other ASEAN countries, supported by Japan and the USA. The reality is demonstrated by the fact that more than once Peking has accused the US administration of directly manoeuvring its great allies Japan and the Philippines, not excluding Vietnam, for the purpose of creating instability in the region. With this complicated and intertwined mosaic, there is no doubt that the major challenge lies in maintaining stability in the region to ensure participated growth and maritime trade. The priorities are still those concerning the control and defence of the shipping routes and the security of shipping, ports and coasts. (F.R.)

Illicit financial flows. The Big Business.

Saturday, 1 February 2020 8:00

It is a fact that the tax systems of developing countries are severely constrained by lack of adequate legislation, deep-rooted weak democratic institutions and pervasive corruption. Tax systems’ collection shortfalls are mainly due to low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, poverty and illicit financial flows (IFF).

Therefore, in order to increase the tax revenues in such countries, it would be necessary to increase the fiscal space (Domestic Revenue Mobilisation) in a progressive way without affecting the poorest. With a fair and progressive increase in taxes on the wealth of companies and citizens, developing countries can collect more money and allocate it to public services that benefit their citizens, such as infrastructure, education or health.

In developing countries, income and expenditure management (tax systems) play a key role in poverty eradication and sustainable development. In fact, the Sustainable Development Goals in their target 16.4 point to the reduction of IFFs along with the return of stolen assets as a means to achieve sustainable development.

Thus, while effective and efficient use of the tax system has a positive effect on the public services provided to the population, a mismanagement of the tax system leads to behaviours that results in illicit financial flows, which is particularly serious in Africa and mainly in those countries that are rich in natural resources.

A clear example of this mismanagement of the tax system is the data showing that African countries are losing US$50 Billion a year on Illicit financial flows and that this amount is greater than all the Official Development Assistance (ODA) the continent receives. There are two main reasons for IFF: first, a national bad management on their tax systems. And second, it is due to the weakness of an international tax system control. Although the main responsibility in the tax system lies with national governments; in a globalized economy, international cooperation mechanisms and global tax reforms are needed to prevent multinationals from taking advantage of legal loopholes to evade or avoid paying taxes. But what are we referring to when we talk about Illicit Financial flows?

According to the report of the High-level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa of 2015, Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) is “money that is illegally earned, transferred or utilized. This funds typically originate from three sources: commercial tax evasion, trade misinvoicing and abusive transfer pricing: including criminal activities… and bribery and theft of government officials”. This definition allows us a better understanding of why the activity generated with the extractive industry (oil, gas and minerals) is directly responsible for the loss of domestic revenues by countries rich in natural resources.

It is estimated that developing countries raise only 65 per cent of the potential revenue they could raise, and out of that amount, the extractive industry is responsible for 60-65 per cent of the money defrauded in Africa. These illicit behaviours and inefficiency in revenue collection make it necessary to review the tax systems to improve the capacity to collect taxes and to establish international control mechanisms to the practices of the extractive industry. Among these illicit behaviors we highlight the three most common practices in the IFF:

Tax Avoidance. In principle, this practice would be within legal limits. Multinationals in their strategy to reduce production costs would in parallel develop an aggressive tax strategy in which they would minimize amounts to be paid in taxes by taking advantage of the national legislation and complex corporate structures. In these cases, companies would study the legal gaps in order to benefit from tax exemptions provided for in the tax law. That is, large corporations with astronomical economic benefits that would cling to legal arguments to stop contributing in the countries where they develop their extractive activities. Although a priori these practices would be legal, they are still unethical business practices, incompatible with corporate social responsibility established by all international standards.

Tax Evasion. This illicit conduct clearly means illegal fraud actions in which the large corporations fails to pay the amount due for the benefits obtained. Multinational companies involved in resource extraction are particularly effective at paying only a small share of the taxes that they owe. It happens when extractive companies try to avoid paying taxes by falsifying and concealing certain data with which the amounts to be paid are determined, such as the quantities of ore extracted, the price received by them, the profits obtained by the company, payments made to local authorities and officials to obtain licenses, etc. These actions are considered tax offences and are punishable by a fine and even imprisonment. Moreover, tax evasion in African countries deprives governments of the ability to provide public services, such as healthcare and education, to the 413 million people living below the poverty line.

Transfer pricing. This practice refers to the rules and methods for pricing transactions within and between companies under common ownership or control. These companies operate in different countries and realize transactions to distort the real incomes. To carry out these practices, companies use complex corporate structures within the same corporate group. Sometimes these companies have their headquarters in tax havens where hardly any companies are taxed.
The companies declare few profits in ordinary activity, distort the purchase and sale prices of raw materials, and make purchases and sales between companies in the same group, always declaring losses in developing countries and declaring profits in tax havens
where they are hardly taxed.

But who benefits most by these illicit conducts?
What is striking is that companies use legal tricks for their illegal and illicit practices. These practices are covered by national and international legal tax systems and therefore protected by politicians, policy makers and officials. The only beneficiaries are the corporations that certainly do not pay taxes in developing countries and neither do they in the rich countries because they use the corporate structures to tax in tax havens.

So why do politicians, policy makers and governments continue to resist changing the legislation? What part of the negotiations and agreements between big corporations, politicians and governments does not transcend to the citizens? Why do most European ministers and commissioners, at the end of their terms in office, end up being members of the boards of directors of large companies? Does it have anything to do with the revolving doors?

José Luis Gutiérrez Aranda,
Trade Policy Officer,
Africa Europe Faith and Justice Network (AEFJN)

Who controls the Oceans?

Saturday, 1 February 2020 8:00

Besides having always been that part of the world where the most of commercial interchange takes place, the sea also has a central role for society, influencing – directly or indirectly – most aspects of daily life.

The movement of the geo-economic axis towards the maritime environment is more easily understood if one considers that 70% of the surface of the earth is covered by water and 80% of all life on the planet developed in the seas and oceans; around 80% of the world’s population live less than 200 km from a coast, and that, during the past decade, 75% of countries have increased their maritime accessibility. It is in the sea, in fact, that most of the productive work of humankind takes place: transport along the maritime lines of communication, the flow of oil and gas, fishing, the exploitation of energy and mineral resources discovered below the sea bed and the laying of underwater cables through which almost all communications pass.

These data confirm that the sea is the main means of commercial and communications productivity and so it may be said that, like the Internet, it constitutes the new means of globalisation since 75% of this current flows through a small number of obligatory choke points, composed of canals and international straits.
In this regard, we need to bear in mind that maritime trade is growing at the rate of 3.8% per year. This growth is doubtless favoured by the support of new protagonists who have appeared on the international scene and who have greatly influenced the process of rearranging trade balances, making it possible for new routes to emerge with considerable repercussions for the strategies of the players in the sector and, consequently, for the port infrastructure chosen for the management of movements. In particular, this development is more marked in the countries of South East Asia. In parallel, there has been the development of the role of the sea-going companies of those countries, which, since the early nineties, began to increase in importance in the list of major maritime transport companies.

The country which is taking its place on a global level as the main geo-economic maritime actor, due to its great capacity to increase worldwide container traffic, as well as for the fact that it is one of the major exporters of oil by sea, is China. Peking has had to equip itself to ensure the control and security of the maritime routes travelled by its own trade goods and by which its raw materials are imported. It is no coincidence that the economic power developed by the Chinese colossus in recent years is being supported by a series of strategic infrastructure projects used to accompany, protect and increase the capacity for expansion of the country. One of these is certainly the great project called the ‘New Silk Road’ by land and by sea, thought up by Peking with the main objective of bringing China closer to the rest of the Eurasian continental landmass and the Mediterranean, as well as of developing the hinterland areas which were left behind with respect to the coastal strip. According to the estimates by authoritative centres of research, the Belt & Road Initiative will, by 2040, increase World GDP by 7.1 trillion dollars per year, 4.2% per annum.
It is beyond doubt that the implementation of such an ambitious project (together with the Russian Razvite), will have considerable geopolitical repercussions if we bear in mind the fact alone that it aims at bringing together Europe and Asia both in infrastructure and economic terms. China’s self-affirmation has, furthermore, caused a substantial movement of the balance of trade from west to east, as well as an increase in inter-Asian trade. Asia, has, in effect, assumed a dominating role in the container-movement business.

In this new geo-economic scenario, the sea continues to gain notable importance as the area where commercial goods flow, and becomes increasingly important for all sectors of the maritime economy, increasing the correlation between industrial production, commercial exchange and maritime transport. This has obviously brought notable changes to the department of maritime transport, generating close competition between transport companies, the progressive global alignment of port authorities towards private management, with the resulting disengagement of the public sector, resulting in competition between the ports themselves.
The naval shipyards are working at an increasing rate and it is estimated that, in the next three years, 133 new container ships of 10,000 to 23,000 TEU, 45 of which will be of 18,000-23,000 TEU, will be built. This also causes a strong tendency to concentrate sea-routes: In 1998, the top four companies owned 20% of the world market while today, that percentage has reached 57-58%. If we take into account the top ten companies, the figures are 40% in 1998 and over 80% in 2019.

Egypt. Suez Canal.

The emergence of new Asian powers, together with the disorganised economic growth in African countries, which are considered expanding markets with a greater diversity of rates than the countries of Europe has, besides, caused a movement in the geopolitical axis towards the south and east of the planet, encouraging the concentration in the Mediterranean of the new geo-economic streams of the world economy. This phenomenon, seen by the shipping companies as the basis of their activities, is identified by them as a dominant current changer that extends across the basin from east to west, from Suez to Gibraltar, allowing the Mediterranean to become the meeting point for intermodal long distance transport, replacing the North Sea routes. Proof of this is seen in the work of widening the Suez Canal, necessitated by the increase of traffic seen in recent years and still growing. In 2018 there was a further increase in transport with respect to the preceding years, with the record number of over 18,000 ships and 983.4 million tons of cargo passing through. These figures show how the strategic importance and the growth of the canal are a result of the development of the Indo-Pacific area where the interests of the major international actors have become concentrated. (F.R.)

Middle East on Fire.

Saturday, 1 February 2020 8:00

What are the implications of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. U.S. Forces in Iraq at risk. Conflict with Iran. Instability in all region.

Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) had just arrived on a flight from Syria. Seconds after he went through the exit, the car he boarded was hit by a missile, launched from a drone, killing him along with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, second in command the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi), the coalition of pro-Iranian Shiite paramilitary militias in Iraq. Regardless of any considerations about whether or not the IGRC (sometimes known as Sepah), or the single Quds force within it, should be designated a terrorist organization (as the United States and other western governments do), and any other concerns about the Islamic Republic in Iran, the assassination of Soleimani launched during an air raid that also saw drones employed.

The implications of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, now an Iranian Martyr are necessarily significant. He earned his fame and reputation as a formidable soldier and strategist immediately after the 1979 revolution, enlisting with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and fighting valiantly in the war against Iraq between 1980 and 1988. In that period, he became known for an ability to infiltrate enemy ranks as part of high-risk operations. In the 1990’s, Soleimani transferred that ability to lead secret operations abroad. Ironically, his last operation was a diplomatic one – involving only moderate risk. He was on an official mission to discuss the possibility of détente between the Islamic Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in a deal brokered by Iraq. Was, then, President Trump’s action part of a plan to compromise any effort to reduce Tehran-Riyadh tensions, presumably because such a de-escalation would make it harder for the U.S. to justify its massive military presence in the Persian Gulf?

Soleimani and Martyrdom
Far from wanting to define Iran as a model of democracy and freedom, the killing of Soleimani will inevitably produce ‘side effects’, or blowback, throughout the Middle East, including areas of U.S. ‘influence’ such as Iraq. Iran has long established an effective network throughout the region, which will frame Soleimani’s death in the context of Shiite soteriology – that is the narrative of salvation through the idea of martyrdom, as developed from the death of the Imam Hussein (Hussein ibn Ali, grandson of Prophet Muhammad) at the Battle of Karbala on October 10, 680 AD (61 AH) against vastly superior Umayyad forces led by the Ubaid ibn Ziyad, Umayyad Governor of Basra.

In a tradition revived through the ‘good vs. evil’ narrative of the Islamic component of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Shiites (under duress) interpret the events of Karbala as Hussein setting the example that consciously facing and accepting certain death, or martyrdom, is always preferable to accepting the unjust and corrupt rulers. In soteriological terms, Shiites, therefore, have both a privilege and an obligation to challenge ‘evil’. It is that challenge that represents victory over it. That concept of martyrdom was central to the galvanization of many Iranians in the early months of the war, that Iraq launched at the behest of the United States and the ‘petro-royals’ of the Gulf, thwarting any predictions that Iran, weakened by revolution, would succumb quickly. The assassination of Soleimani fits, almost ideally, within this framework and those, whom the general inspired, will be eager to fulfill
their own martyrdoms.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

In a more cynical light, the Ayatollahs and more genuinely ideological cadres of the Islamic Republic, could not have asked for a more effective way to rally support than Trump’s assassination of Soleimani. The soteriology will both strengthen the ‘conservative’ camp within Iran itself – that is the IGRC itself and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei – at the expense of President Rohani and the reformists. Rohani will have to defer any plans to ease tensions with the West, adopting a more martial tone in order to preserve political support for his government in the context of widespread economic discontent and, what appears to be, an intensified U.S. effort to destabilize it. The IGRC’s unintentional downing of a Ukraine International Airlines airliner – (flight PS752, under murky circumstances) in the hours after launching missiles as part of an operation (code-named Operation Martyr Soleimani) against the Ayn al-Asad airbase in Al Anbar Governorate, Iraq, and another base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, housing U.S. troops – has generated additional domestic tension, adding yet another dimension to the anti-government protests.

Trump Trapped by Impeachment Trials and Re-election
The probability – even more than the possibility – that U.S. President Donald trump bogged down in impeachment machinations, will be tempted to solidify support from his evangelical Christian supporters and pro-Israel lobbies by assenting to a complete Israeli takeover of the Palestinian Occupied Territories. Such a step would all but ensure Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election as prime minister in 2020 (Source: Haaretz). Evidently, that could set the entire Middle East on fire, deepening anti-American sentiment in Iraq, and playing into what will certainly represent Tehran’s anti-Washington strategy: stir Iraqi Shiites – and by all indications, this process has already begun.
Several anti-US demonstrations, drawing hundreds of thousands of people, erupted in Baghdad on January 23 demanding the departure of American troops in the country.

The fact that Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr (who is more of an Iraqi nationalist Shiite, complaining about the excessive Iranian influence in Baghdad) launched the demonstrations draw attention to the fact that the very Shiites, who managed to gain political ground in the aftermath of the 2003 Anglo-American invasion, have turned against their ‘benefactors’. Al-Sadr’s militias were joined by pro-Iranian ones, including the very Kataib Hezbollah, commanded by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (one of the eight people including Major Brigadier General Hossein Pour Jafari, Colonel Shahroud Mozaffari, Major Hadi Taremi, and Captain Vahid Zamanian who were killed in the strike against Gen. Soleimani), and their message is clear: should the United States refuse to leave Iraq, its troops shall be considered as hostile occupiers, adding that any security and airspace control agreements between Washington and Baghdad should be canceled. Such demand echo those of Prime Minister Adel Abdel-Mahdi, who demanded American troops leave Iraq in the immediate aftermath of Soleimani’s assassination.

U.S. Forces in Iraq.
U.S. Forces in Iraq cannot simply act as if nothing has changed. Trump’s action will have consequences, and Iran will be in a better position (after taking direct action with its missile strike against American military bases in Iraq to avenge Soleimani) to operate through its allies in Iraq. The Shiite re-awakening, combined with intensifying calls for an American withdrawal, could lead at the very least to a situation comparable to the October 23, 1983 bombings – attributed to Hezbollah – against barracks near the Beirut international airport, which killed 307 American and French troops. Indeed, there are few options. If the Americans refuse to leave, they will come under fire. And, after destroying the Baathist State and military apparatus, it won’t be easy for them to find refuge among the Sunnis.

Perhaps, the remote al-Anbar province near Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan (and even there, the presence would be precarious, given that neither Turkey nor Iran have an interest in allowing the Kurds to fully separate from Baghdad) could provide a refuge for a while, but it does not change the long-term prospects, which call for a withdrawal. The Iranian missiles were mean as a friendly warning, which needs little translation: US forces in Iraq are not secure. The message from the massive street protests, may be less explosive, but is equally clear: Iran has allies, which can complicate a continued U.S. presence in the region. Such complications include a heavily impaired ability for the U.S. to conduct training exercises – and the Iraqi government will not allow Iraqi troops to participate, having all but formally declared the United States an occupying force – given their intensified vulnerability. And if U.S. troops are unsafe in Iraq, so are U.S. companies and contractors.

Iran and Iraq are unofficially at war.
Prompted to perform dangerous steps on the international stage by his would-be impeachers, and eager to consolidate support for the 2020 presidential elections, Trump has few choices. He could diffuse the situation by lifting many, if not all, the sanctions imposed against the Islamic Republic and initiate direct and unconditional dialogue with President Rohani – or better yet with Khamenei, just as he did with Kim il-Jong. But, Iran is not North Korea: there are overly and overtly influential lobbies and geopolitical narratives (in support of Israel) that would prevent anything even resembling dialogue from happening. The Saudis, who seemed interested in pursuing dialogue, have interpreted the Soleimani assassination as a friendly warning from Washington, that Uncle Sam does not approve such overtures.

Therefore, they may simply wait: perhaps, for a direct U.S. attack on Iran? Meanwhile, as Washington’s differences with Tehran’s tensions with Washington have mutated into hostilities with Baghdad, the Iranians have themselves lost the power to put the genie of conflict back in the lamp. General Soleimani had built a legendary reputation, which translated into authority. New commander of the Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, will enjoy less strategic independence and will likely be used as a mere instrument to carry out Khamenei’s vision, while lacking the influence and control over the network, which Soleimani wove over the years, coordinating and organizing various Shiite militias and organizations in Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain. Without Soleimani, an element of predictability has been lost, raising the opportunities for jarred actions, leading to wider war as Iran plays the regional and Shiite cards.
Alessandro Bruno

The priorities of Russian foreign policy in Africa.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Holding summits for African heads of governments is fast becoming a recurrent event among the global power brokers. The EU has had about 5 of these summits, probably to massage and codify her colonial exploitative economic spree with Africa because
nothing significant has really emerged from those submits
to enhance Africa’s fortune.

Following the example of China in the recent past, Russia too had, for the first time, invited the African heads of government to a two-day Africa summit in Sochi from 23.-24 October, 2019. Over 40 African heads of government participated in the summit. Just like China, Russia has the privilege of entering into the African political space as a non-colonialists but Russia had the added advantage of having supported African states in their struggle for independence.

During the Cold War, it had close ties with socialist states like Guinea, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Angola. Those countries have now become the boosters for the rebuilding of Russian interest in Africa. Neither China nor Russia cares about human rights in Africa, but Russia in particular does not hide her thirst for arm sales, nor even shy away from helping autocratic regimes to sway national elections, as has been reported from DR Congo and Guinea while the Chinese unbriddled quest for mineral resources has no equal.

Obviously, both China and Russia are exploiting the vacuum created by the European colonialists from their lack of true and constructive commitment to Africa to market their respective products in Africa. But in the final analysis it is a race of fury for the control of Africa’s natural resources, the global digital economy and power.
The primary products offered to the African heads of governments by Russia during the most recent summit are worrisome. Among others, Russia has offered nuclear technology alongside weapons and mining expertise to Africa.

As part of the summit, the Russian energy group Rosatom signed a preliminary agreement with Rwanda to help her with the construction of an atomic research centre and another contract with Ethiopia with the aim of building a high-performance nuclear power plant. Russia has granted Egypt a $ 25 billion loan for the construction of a nuclear power plant and is supplying enriched uranium for a research reactor.
In South Africa. Rosatom had made a deal to build eight $75 billion nuclear power plants under former President Jacob Zuma, which was cancelled after his removal from power.

Truly, Africa needs power to drive her economic development but to suggest nuclear energy for Africa as an option considering its technical demands and environment threats is highly questionable and condemnable. Rather than nuclear energy, is there no wisdom to suggest the development of the rich supply of sun and wind in Africa for solar and wind plants as alternatives for Africa that would be cheaper, cleaner and better.However, it needs to be interrogated further whether these summits are about the development of Africa or the exploitation and control of her resources.

Like China and the European colonialists, Russia is fast leaving her foot print in Africa. In Guinea, Russian corporations exploit huge bauxite deposits and run a gold mine without paying taxes. In Uganda, the Russian corporate group RT Global Resources is building an oil refinery for three billion Euros. Russian companies are planning platinum mines in Zimbabwe and want to develop one of the largest diamond deposits in Angola.Russia could thus double its trade volume with Africa to $ 20 billion in 2019, though this remains modest when compared to China’s $ 300 billion.

Not only that, Russia is also strengthening its influence on the continent through military cooperation. Over the past four years, Russia has signed military cooperation agreements with 19 African states, to supply weapons and training. 40% of all military exports to Africa come from Russia, 17% from China and 11% from the US. At the Sochi summit, Putin declared his intention to double arms exports to Africa and on the spot signed a contract with Nigeria to supply Mi-35 combat helicopters.

In the Central African Republic Russia is very present with 200 military advisors and a Russian is the security advisor to the president. The country is attractive because of its uranium and gold deposits. In an agreement with Mozambique Russia supports the fight against Islamist terrorists in the North and also granted a debt swap in exchange for access to the large oil and gas fields. In Sudan, instructors train the security forces and Russian soldiers supported them in the brutal suppression of demonstrations last June.

Often, military training is not carried out directly by the Russian army, but by mercenaries of the Wagner group, a private security company already notorious through its operations in Crimea and Syria. During the Sochi summit, President Wladimir Putin declared that, “Today, developing and strengthening mutually beneficial relations with African countries is one of the priorities of Russian foreign policy.” But only time will show what this new found love with Africa practically means

However, it is viewed that there is a debt crisis hanging over the neck of the continent. This new wave of interest is indeed a feast on the soul of the African continent. Every resource that the continent can boast of is targeted; the level of resource extraction is massive. In return, there is promise of infrastructural development. It is the replay of an old story. In the 1980s, most African countries fell into a “debt trap” that led to a “lost development decade”. The bail out by the International Monetary through the so-called HIPC initiative (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) came at a high cost, with the imposition of strict conditions which stifled all possibilities of development.

With China’s billions of credits for infrastructure projects, Russia’s arms exports, and governments borrowing further billions on the financial markets, Africa is well on the way to a new debt crisis. Time will tell if the seemingly huge debt reliefs that China and Russia have granted to some African countries are worth the soul of the African continent which has become the main dish for the insatiable appetites of Russia, China and the powerful western countries.
Wolfgang Shonecke

Guatemala. The native flavour of boj.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Boj, which originates from the northern region of Alta Verapaz, has a cultural and spiritual meaning to the Q’eqchi’ people, it is served at religious celebrations and indigenous festivities.

The inhabitants of the Alta Verapaz department say that the basic ingredient of this drink is corn, which has cooked on a wood fire for three days and which is left to soak for two days before being ground. In the meantime, some sugarcane is crushed to get the juice, which is poured in a bowl of cooked clay first, and then into a clay jar, where a base of fermented corn and ginger was previously placed at the bottom. Eight days of fermentation are needed to make a brown, thick and
acidic liquor.

For a more refined flavour, the cane can be ground without the shell and a compound of yeast for bread, soda and oatmeal crackers is put at the bottom of a jar, next to rotten corn that has not previously been used for fermentation. The result, they say, is an off-white drink with foam like that of champagne. There are several legends about the origin of boj. According to the Mayan worldview, this drink has existed since pre-Hispanic times and its production is linked to the creation of the world and man. Over centuries, several experiments were made to achieve the perfection of this drink, whose basic ingredient was, every time, fermented corn. The final recipe includes sugarcane which was introduced during the colonial era and which gives a distinctive taste.

There are several kinds of boj that are served on different occasions. The ceremonial boj, as the name implies, is primarily served on occasion of religious celebrations and indigenous festivities, and its preparation implies a sacred ritual. People traditionally, before drinking boj, pour a little of it on the ground before the figure of a saint, as a symbolic blessing of the place. This drink is served during celebrations such as the Pa’baanq or planting day, baptisms, weddings, birthdays and patron saint festivities. Of course, you have to be very careful, because boj is a seriously powerful alcoholic drink, warn those who have already experienced the powers of its ancestral influence.

Pedro Santacruz

How the hare lost his tail.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

One day in the long, long ago the hare was walking through the forest. He was a good farmer and was on his way to inspect his mealie lands. In those days he was like all the other creatures of the wilds: he had a long tapering tail, a well-formed nose and a strong, sturdy figure. He was, in fact, extremely proud of his appearance.

On this particular occasion he had stopped for a brief rest and was sitting on a fallen tree-trunk, when a man came hurrying along one of the many paths that crossed and criss-crossed the forest. He looked at the hare with relief. “I am going to my marriage dance at the village across the river – he said -, but I have lost my way among all these paths. Can you show me how to get there?”

The hare was always ready to oblige when the chance of a party or a beer drink was in the offing. “With pleasure – he replied – . Follow me.” And he set off at once with great leaps and bounds.

He covered the ground at such a rate that the man found great difficulty in keeping up with him and gradually fell further and further behind. Finally he lost sight of the hare altogether. To crown all, he fell into a well-concealed game-pit and was unable to climb out again.

After a while the hare noticed that the man was not behind him anymore, and turned back to find out why he was not following. “Whatever happened, friend?” he asked when he found the man struggling to get out of the hole.
“Here, catch hold of my tail and jump out!” And the hare sat down at the rim of the hole so that the man could use his tail as a rope.

The man took a firm hold on the tail and gave a tremendous jump, but in doing so he lost his balance and fell backwards. He was such a heavy man that the hare’s tail broke off right up near his body.

“Dear, dear, dear!” exclaimed the hare, more concerned about missing the wedding party than losing his tail. “This will never do. We must get you out, or we shall miss the party. Put your arms around my waist and I’ll see if I can pull you out.”

The man did as he was told, and after a great deal of pulling and struggling the hare finally got the man out. They both fell to the ground, exhausted by their efforts.
Then the hare realised that the man had squeezed his waist so tightly that it was much, much smaller than before.

“Dear, dear, dear!” exclaimed the hare again, still more concerned about missing the wedding party than his now ridiculously slender waist. “We must be quick, or we shall miss the party.”

The wedding party was already in full swing when the hare and the bridegroom finally reached the village. The hare lost no time in making himself at home. It was not long before he started to push other would-be partners aside so that he could dance with the bride, who was renowned throughout the country for her beauty.

The hare was very light and nimble, and danced on the very tips of his toes. This pleased the bride to such an extent that she refused all other partners, to the great annoyance and jealousy of her groom.

Earlier that evening, while the bride was on her way to the wedding party, she had slipped on some stepping-stones while crossing a river, and fallen into the water.
As the evening wore on, her wet skirt began to shrink and became shorter and shorter and shorter.
Noticing this, many of the guests covered their mouths with their hands to smother their laughter.

This annoyed the hare, so he went in search of some cloth. Eventually he found a braided goatskin in one of the village huts. He stripped a couple of pieces of bark from a tree and held the two ends firmly between his teeth. Then he began to twist them together to make a girdle with which to tie the skin around the bride’s waist. But he twisted with such vigour and speed that one of the pieces of bark shot up and cut his upper lip right through to his nose.

Although the bride was very sympathetic and did all in her power to comfort him, the flesh never joined up completely; and this has left not only the hare, but his descendants as well, with a split upper lip.

The bridegroom was so angry at the hare for depriving him of his bride at the wedding party that he was delighted at the hare’s misfortune, declaring that it was his just punishment. And the hare was wise enough to return to his farm without delay, before the bridegroom had time to carry out the revenge that he was planning. And that is why all hares have a very short tail, a ridiculously small waist, and a harelip to this day.

Folktale from Zambia

Homelessness, an Unexpected Advocacy.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Advocacy is about defending a noble cause and denouncing oppression and injustice. However, it should be also a source of inspiration for alternative solutions to social, political and economic threats. Solutions advocating for inclusion and equality instead of exclusion or, worse, only of private financial interests.

First, what is Global Homelessness? Its current statistic are inaccurate and outdated. However, an estimated 100 million people or more are the world’s homeless (UN, ECOSOC, Commission on Human Rights). While this is roughly 2% of the world population, 20%, 1.6 billion people, lack adequate housing (See Habitat 2005). The UN Statistic Division groups homeless in two categories: those who live in streets having no shelter, and those who move frequently between accommodations shelters, dwellings, others’ home.

Homelessness is both a cause and effect of complex and multifaceted social and economic poverty due to lack of housing affordability, increased housing costs, privatization of civic services, conflicts, and rapid urbanization. With inadequate or no housing comes inadequate or no access to necessary services such as electricity, public programs, transportation, education, internet, water.

While some may argue that solving homelessness would be very costly, a more profound analysis shows that it would be in the countries’ economic interest to address the issue. In the United States of America, for example, each chronically homeless person costs the taxpayer some $35,578 per year. This is reduced by 49.5% when they are placed in supportive housing.
A case study in Tshwane, a South Africa city, states that the homeless population have great economic potential. Employing the homeless will reduce homelessness and benefit the country economy.

Accessing Education
Accessing education is obviously difficult to impossible to those who are homeless. By investing in inclusive education system, the countries can lower the rates of homelessness. Moreover, ending homelessness can increase the number of educated citizens, and more education means economic, social, and political opportunities for all citizens, which in turn rebounds in all countries even economic advantages.

Health issues
Homeless persons are at risk for many health issues, especially to meet infectious diseases, putting safety of the entire public at risk. Some research even suggests that homelessness can lead to developing mental illnesses. Health concerns can have negative effects for both individuals and societies. It is in the interest of public health to address homelessness saving social security money.
Society should feel concerned for all human rights that homeless people lack. Hunger, often characterized by malnutrition, can have deeply negative effects on one’s health especially among children. Maternal and childhood chronic hunger results in risk for poorer general health, increasing anxiety, irritability, and aggressiveness. Among children, it can increase developmental, physical, and emotional disorder, all weighing down on social health cost. This can perpetuate a cycle of poverty and homelessness, than in turn increase structural, sexual and domestic violence. Increased rates of violence, in other hand, have shown to be a predictor of repeated homelessness.

An humanitarian problem
Homelessness is a social and humanitarian problem. Winters bring to the news the endless list of old and poor people dying while sleeping on the street, for lack of food and health treatment, while life, food, housing are the basically human rights. Instead of looking at homeless people as a social sore and nuisance, why do not society’s leaders see them as an opportunity? Such a suggestion, can be argued, borders an old sophism, “salty anchovies make thirsty, being thirsty pushes to drink what in turn quenches thirst, and therefore anchovies quench thirst”.

However, homelessness is not about a theoretical discussion. Homelessness endangers the lives of vulnerable people, particularly women and children. In Toronto, Canada, homeless women 18-44 years of age were 10 times more likely to die than the general female population as a 2004 report says. Research in South Africa suggests that homeless pregnant women lacking health security, education, and awareness are more inclined to experience health complications leading to a low birth weight, longer hospital stays, and a higher need of neonatal intensive care. Why societies, for their own economic, social, and political interest, do not prevent such problems that can be foreseen, instead of reacting with violence and repression when they unexpectedly happen?

John Paul Pezzi, mccj
VIVAT International NGO
with consultative special status at UN

Ecumenism in Africa. Dialogue in the continent of diversity.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

In ancient times, the word ecumene denoted the whole known world and defined that portion of the earth that was inhabited, in contrast with the lands as yet unknown. Later, the concept of ecumenism attained a religious meaning referring to the movements within Christianity that aimed at unifying their various denominations, separated by questions of doctrine, history, tradition and practice. Africa is moving forward in the field of ecumenism, despite the complexity of the continent.

The ecumenical movement today is marked by various milestones such as the launch of the octave of prayer for the unity of Christians in 1908; the World Missionary Conference, held in Edinburgh in 1910; the creation of the Ecumenical Council of the Churches, nine years later; or the institution of its statutes in Utrecht (1938) and Amsterdam (1948).
In the catholic world, Pope John XXIII imparted greater impetus to the movement, followed by Paul VI and John Paul II. The ecumenical movement belongs essentially to the West but the expansion of Christianity to the whole world, and to Africa in particular, renders this statement devoid of meaning. In Africa, it is worth remembering that there are around three thousand independent Christian churches that follow their own religiosity.

In the African context, a person belongs to a community by birth and cannot leave it without losing their identity. In this real and symbolic universe, human life is seen as existence in its entirety, as a manifestation of the divine, the ancestors, the spirits and of nature. In this context, no human life is extraneous to the rites of birth, puberty, matrimony, the rites carried out at the time of death or healing, to give but a few examples.
This traditional African wisdom soon became the target of the first evangelisers, who aimed at extending general Christian salvation, unique and exclusive. Their great conviction and admirable commitment would create, in parallel, a great loss of direction among the new African believers faced with a new vision of the world and of the human being. From then on, humankind would be seen only in essential terms of body and soul, matter and spirit, humanity and divinity. This dualism caused in the hearts of the Africans a separation between mother nature and the ties that bound them to the universe as a whole, divided by a struggle between this life and the next, and marked by a religiosity that preached the salvation of the soul while ignoring the suffering caused by the colonial system. The new Christian Africans found they had been disinherited from their roots and disoriented regarding their future.

The evangelical message preached by the first missionaries reached Sub-Saharan Africa already fragmented by the Portuguese explorations in the XV century, the return of liberated slaves in the XIX century and, above all, after attacking it, by the division and distribution of Africa by the European powers at the Conference of Berlin (1885). The implementation and development of Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa would be totally conditioned by the origins and cultures of the evangelisers. This culturally pluralistic Christianity spread a weak Gospel that was practically unable to give adequate answers to the religious aspirations of the Africans. The new Christians showed western clothes. This situation led to the spread of syncretism and led to the birth of independent churches.

The African ecumenical mission
In his Apostolic Exhortation Ecclesia in Africa, Pope John Paul II reminds us that Catholics are sent to develop ecumenical dialogue with all their baptised brothers belonging to other Christian confessions, so as to reach that unity for which Christ prayed. He pointed out that this dialogue can be realised through initiatives such as an ecumenical translation of the Bible, the theological study of various aspects of the Christian faith or evangelical witness for justice, peace, and respect for human dignity. As regards traditional religions, Pope John Paul II stated that serene and prudent dialogue will guarantee the assimilation of their positive values and harmonise them with the content of Christianity.
It is therefore necessary to treat with respect and esteem those who follow traditional religions.

The Pontiff emphasised that commitment to dialogue must also include Moslems of good will. Christians must not forget that many Moslems try to imitate the faith of Abraham. The Pope also said that Christians and Moslems have been called to commit themselves to the promotion of a dialogue that fosters religious freedom against all forms of religious fundamentalism. The coexistence of all these religions represents a great challenge to the Christian proposal for dialogue in Africa.
The ecumenical proposal and mission of Christians in the continent, conflict with the situation of fundamental groups that often inculcate in their members a message of hatred, discrimination and extremism which is an obstacle to efforts for ecumenical and religious dialogue. Somalia and the surrounding countries, for example, became the scene in recent years of bloody terrorist attacks by Al Shabab. Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger suffer the incursions of Boko Haram extremists whose aim is to impose Sharia Law in the heart of Africa.

Hope in dialogue
Even though the outlook for ecumenical dialogue seems bleak in Africa, the Christian churches of Africa and other faith communities are still active and militant in the search for an ecumenical solution to these challenges. Christmas in many countries of the continent is no longer an exclusively Christian celebration but has become a tradition for other religious communities. In Senegal, for example, Christians, Moslems and followers of traditional faiths celebrate together the birth of Jesus, and each of them desires the best for their neighbours. In Algeria, Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo, many Christians celebrate Christmas inviting Moslems to join their celebrations.

Ecumenical dialogue in the African continent is centred upon various aspects, especially those connected with the sacraments. Regarding Baptism, all Christians – Catholics, Orthodox, Anglicans and Protestants – recognise its validity, even if administered by different Churches.
The same is true for the validity of marriage between Christians of different denomination.The joint celebration of the Eucharist as well as the pastoral service of the sick in hospitals is the subject of dialogue and reflection. Other questions facing the different Christian Churches are divorce, abortion, atheism and secularisation as well as the challenges of poverty and corruption. In this situation, problems such as homosexuality have not entered the agenda of African ecumenism to any great extent. An effort is being made to improve the presence of women in the structures of many Christian communities.

Christ, symbol of fullness
In all this process of ecumenical dialogue, it is not easy to know exactly what the different Churches are referring to when they speak of Jesus as Saviour. Here, as emphasised by José Ignacio Gonzàlez Faus, a Spanish Jesuit theologian, in ‘Credo Cristiano’, ‘each one seeks in Jesus protection and salvation; for some, salvation is preserving and increasing that which they have already; for others, Christ is the one who maintains the status quo: a God who ratifies the past in the present and makes it permanent and stable. He is the God of the established order, of blind obedience and of immutable law’.

However, seeing the efforts towards true ecumenical dialogue in Africa today, Christ must necessarily constitute a promise and the absolute guarantee of a better future for all. African ecumenical dialogue must, in this sense, lay its foundations in the path where it is well understood that we are all part of the same spirit of God, of a universal awareness whose fascination leads us to the practice of love and steers us away from error, discrimination and hatred.
Instead of ecumenical dialogue, Africa would first need an inter-religious dialogue that brings lasting peace and merciful justice. Ecumenical efforts in Africa must always reawaken our sensibility towards others and stimulate their sensibility towards each other. Being voluntarily rooted in one’s own religion does not allow serious participation in ecumenical dialogue with Christians of other Churches, still less with followers of other religious confessions. Africa needs agents of evangelisation with an advanced ecumenical formation, sustained by the power of the Holy Spirit. This is the only way to reach unity loved by Christ for the world and for Africa.
Jean de Dieu Madangi
Congolese Philosopher and theologian

Mexico. Calakmul, the Lost City.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Its name means “The Place of Adjacent Mounds.” This site was contemporary with Tikal and Palenque. Calakmul was at its peak between around 431 and 790 A.D. but it was already an important city in the late Pre-classic, with dated monuments being erected
around 200 A.D.

Calakmul was inhabited for 1500 years and was a major Maya power in the area within the Guatemalan Petén and northern Yucatan. Calakmul was one of the largest and most powerful ancient cities ever uncovered in the Maya lowlands with a population of 50,000 inhabitants. It was the capital of what it is known as the Snake Kingdom, which extended in a radius of up to 150 kilometres including secondary cities like El Mirador and it governed about two million Mayan people. Throughout the Classic period (250 – 900), Calakmul maintained an intense rivalry with the major city of Tikal. The great rivalry between these two cities may have been based on more than competition for resources. Their dynastic histories reveal different origins and the intense competition between the two powers may have had an ideological grounding. Calakmul’s dynasty seems ultimately derived from the great Preclassic city of El Mirador while the dynasty of Tikal was profoundly affected by the intervention of the distant central Mexican metropolis of Teotihuacan.

Calakmul was occupied since the middle Preclassic period, around the first millennium BC. The city was then a vassal of others like El Mirador or Nakbe, which later would pass under its dominion. During the Classic period, Tikal was the city dominating much of the Mayan region. However, Calakmul was a rival city with equivalent resources that challenged the supremacy of Tikal and engaged in a strategy of surrounding it with its own network of allies in the middle of the sixth century and throughout the seventh. Calakmul, which was ruled by the Kaan (Snake) dynasty challenged Tikal’s domain, managing to side with Tikal-vassal states such as Caracol and Dos Pilas, and inflicted Tikal with several defeats. But it was only under the rule of King Yuknoom the Great that Calakmul reached its peak managing to control a large area of the Yucatan and to occupy Tikal, although it failed to extinguish Tikal’s power completely and Tikal was able to turn the tables on its great rival in a decisive battle that took place in 695 AD. Half a century later Tikal was able to gain major victories over Calakmul’s most important allies.

Between the ninth and tenth centuries, both Tikal and Calakmul were progressively abandoned for no apparent reason in what is known as the great Mayan collapse. The jungle is so impenetrable in that region that during the entire colonial era Calakmul went unnoticed. The city, which had been hidden in the jungle for 1,000 years, was ‘discovered’ in 1931 by the American botanist Cyrus Lundell who assisted in British Honduras, with experiments on the sapodilla tree (Achras zapota), which yields chicle, for the U.S. chewing gum industry.

Chicle is the natural gum from trees of the genus Manilkara, tropical evergreen trees native to southern North America and South America. It was traditionally used in chewing gum. Lundell named Calakmul the City of Adjacent Towers after the two large pyramids discovered here. The archaeologist, epigrapher, and Mayanist, Sylvanus Morley, who was in Chichen Itza at the time of Lundell’s discovery, was quickly informed and some investigations were carried out at the site in the years that followed. The exploration of the site, however, came to a halt in 1938, and was only resumed in the 1980s.
The Autonomous University of Campeche and the National Institute of Anthropology and History have been in charge of investigating the 117 stelae that have revealed Calakmul’s past.

The city is located on an artificially flattened promontory. It is surrounded by a seasonal swamp, the Labyrinth, and an extensive network of canals and reservoirs and fertile lands. The 6,000 structures, mainly in Petén style, that comprise the city’s bed, occupy about 70 square kilometres. The size of the central monumental architecture is approximately 2 square kilometres and the whole of the site, mostly covered with dense residential structures, is about 20 square kilometres. The monumental area includes around a thousand structures. Structure 2 is 45 meters high and 120 meters wide and it was increased in size by building upon the pre-existing temple in order to increase its bulk. From there one can see the large square and the acropolis next to it. Calakmul stelae were made from poor quality limestone and tend to be badly eroded. Valuable pottery and murals are also found in Calakmul. The Calakmul murals are slightly different from the others found in ancient Maya sites, as the latter depict activities of the elite class. In the Calakmul mural, market scenes are depicted, where people are seen preparing or consuming products such as tobacco, tamale, and atole, while vendors are selling needles and textiles.

Calakmul also houses one of the most an important biodiversity sanctuaries in Mesoamerica, it constitutes a biological corridor that improves the viability of species from the north of Yucatan to the south and the species of humid and sub-humid climates of Chiapas and Petén towards the north and the Caribbean.
Calakmul Biosphere Reserve boasts about 1,100 species of plants with 380 endemic species, including 73 types of wild orchids. As to the fauna, the reserve hosts 90 species of mammals ; 235 species of birds, of which about 60 species are migratory; 50 species of reptiles; 400 of butterflies; and in the waters, there are 18 native fish species. (F.C.)

Our Right to Speak for Climate Justice.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Hundreds of thousands of young people have taken to the streets from Johannesburg to London to demand radical action on the unfolding ecological emergency.

It is a time to challenge the people with the means and power to eliminate poverty, change their communities, build a nation and fight climate change, a cause of poverty, and make the world a safer and healthier place for human kind and creation.

These power brokers are the financiers, the bankers, the traders, multinational corporations and the politicians that support them. They are mostly elected by the rich to do their bidding and make laws to benefit their corporate interests. They have the power of government and can give them permits and police and military protection to exploit the land of the poor, to damage the environment and to cause climate destruction all for their personal benefit. They mine the mountains, burn the forests, pollute the air and steal the wealth of nations. In the process, they destroy the cultures and cause greater poverty. We need to take a stand for climate justice.

Damaging climate change is caused by the massive pollution of corporate industry that pours CO2 gases into the atmosphere from coal plants and factories increasing the global temperature. That in turn is melting the permafrost and millions of cubic feet of methane, the worst greenhouse gas of all, pour into the sky forming a blanket of gas around the globe. We live in a planetary oven which is being backed by the blistering sun. Eleven thousand world scientists have declared recently a “climate emergency,” proving by clear evidence and scientific proof that global warming will bring untold poverty and human suffering.

Soon, the world’s temperature will reach the tipping point, the point of no return. More crops will not survive, animals will become extinct, and poor people will die in vast numbers. We can see the raging fires, storms and floods across the world. The physical and scientific evidence is plain to see. The only concern of the ignorant and greedy politicians is their own and corporate interests typified by President Trump withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate agreement.

We can see and hear the cries and protests of the school children, the unemployed, the hungry and the hopeless that are taking to the streets across the world demanding an end to global warming, climate change, inequality, poverty, injustice and corruption. We too must find a non-violent, peaceful way to express our protest. We can make a placard, join a march, raise it with others and add our voice to the rising protest against poverty and injustice.

Political power is the force that controls and directs a nation, influences our lives and families and, if implemented justly and with competence, it can bring peace, harmony, justice, well-being and an end to widespread poverty. It is the abuse of power, graft and corruption, greed and exploitation that cause poverty, unemployment, hardship, injustice, and human rights violations. Eventually, it can lead to mass demonstrations and even insurrection.

Around the world demonstrations are erupting in many countries. Protest is in the air. The common people want to vent their anger and exercise their freedom of expression and protest and even overturn corrupt governments. Even the children and youth are marching
and protesting.

But small issues lead to big public outrage and both peaceful and violent protests. In Chile, an increase in bus fare sparked the fury; in Hong Kong, a law to extradite Hong Kong citizens to mainland China for trial started the protests. In Lebanon, it was because proposed tax on the use of WhatsApp, no less. In Iraq, it is government corruption and almost a hundred have been killed. The elite will hold on to power come what may. In the Philippines, there is silence.

The news feeds are reporting many more street protests and demonstrations in other countries around the world. The poor and the oppressed, the exploited and forgotten, downtrodden people are having their say. Will it change anything? We cannot know for now. Organized or spontaneous peaceful, non-violent demonstration is a civil right. It is the bedrock of democracy; it is the voice of the people, the cry of truth and freedom. It is the only challenge to tyrants and dictators and corrupt leaders. It is a right that we should respect in our efforts to end poverty.

Father Shay Cullen

Africa 2020. Between Elections and Conflicts.

Wednesday, 1 January 2020 8:00

Existing and looming conflicts, “third-termism” and rigged elections are the main challenges.

The Jihadist threat, the leaders’ will to stay in power beyond constitutional terms, possibly rigged elections and looming conflicts in the Great Lakes Region are the main challenges for 2020. The result of the parliamentary elections in Egypt at the end of 2020 looks predictable. An overwhelming victory of President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi’s candidates for the House of Representatives and the Senate is expected since protesters are silenced systematically as happened in September 2019 when 2,300 people were arrested.
The question is whether the powder-keg will explode, with growing resentment against the military regime from Islamist supporters, pro-democracy activists and young unemployed.
In Algeria, a new President is supposed to be elected on the 12 December 2019 but will he boast enough legitimacy to lead the country? The “Hirak” protest movement activists have called for a boycott, claiming that all registered candidates belong to the “political system”. At any rate, no new large project will be implemented in 2020, warned the Minister of Interior, Salah Eddine Dahmoune, owing to budget constraints caused by lower oil prices.

Libya is likely to remain a focus of uncertainty, except on one point. At the end of October, Italy and the UN-backed Tripoli government renewed their deal under which Libyan coastguards stop migrant boats at sea and send their passengers back to Africa, where they may face torture and abuse, while the civil war continues to rage. This should reduce the migration flows through Italy and, on the contrary, increase pressure in the Strait of Gibraltar between Morocco and Spain.
Meanwhile, the situation which looked like a stalemate in 2019 may change. In November, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord supported by Turkey and Qatar was still resisting the offensive launched against the city by the leader of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, which is supported by Egypt and by the United Arab Emirates. Attempts by Western diplomats to persuade the UAE, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict may not be sufficient to halt the General’s ambitions.

In the Sahel Region, three countries will try to hold elections within a climate of ongoing Jihadist terrorism. Mali plans to organise parliamentary elections in May. But the weakness of the Malian army towards the Jihadists is a major concern, as shown by an attack against a military barracks on the border with Niger, which killed 53 Malian soldiers on 1 November 2019. The UN Security Council expressed its concern on 11 October over the deterioration of the situation in the centre of the country where frequent clashes are reported in the Dogon area between local inhabitants and Fulani shepherds who have fallen under Jihadist influence.
There is a similar challenge in Niger where presidential and legislative elections are due on 27 December. The country is caught between Boko Haram in the South East and a proliferation of Jihadists at its Western border with Mali. In Burkina Faso, presidential and parliamentary elections are due on a day yet to be specified. Attacks of Jihadist groups affiliated to Al Qaida or to the Islamic State have become frequent in the north of the country. Since early 2015, over 640 people have died and 500,000 people have been displaced. Elsewhere in West Africa, the re-election of incumbent Presidents is creating serious tensions. In Guinea Conakry, five protesters and one police officer were killed on 15 October 2019, during a demonstration against government plans to review the constitution in order to allow 81-year old President Alpha Condé to run for a third presidential term by end of 2020.

Ivorian president, Alassane Ouattara.

In Côte d’Ivoire, 77-year old President Alassane Ouattara is encouraged by his supporters to run for a third term scheduled for October. This could be possible owing to an amendment of the constitution which hitherto limited the number of mandates to only two, which was voted on in 2016. The dreaded scenario of a campaign of three opposing former presidents, the incumbent Ouattara and his predecessors, Henri Konan Bédié and Laurent Gbagbo, cannot be ruled out. There are fears that the competition may lead to a crisis similar to the one which caused 3,000 deaths in 2010-2011. In 2019, Bédié resumed his xenophobic rhetoric, targeting migrant workers, and accused the government of issuing identity documents to foreigners in order to rig the 2020 election. The Ivorian government is also trying to prevent Gbagbo who was acquitted by the International Criminal Court of charges of crimes against humanity and lives under supervised liberty in Belgium, to campaign. The former spokesman of the Forces Nouvelles rebels and former speaker of the National Assembly, Guillaume Soro stands as an outsider. Togolese President, Faure Gnassingbe who is expected to seek a fourth presidential mandate in February or March, does not face this problem since a new constitution allows him to run for two more mandates. But the Roman Catholic bishops warn against possible new tensions and suspect election rigging. During the local elections of June 2019, church observers were not allowed inside the polling stations.

In the Horn of Africa, Somalia is supposed to hold its first “one person one vote” elections for half a century, by end of 2020. But in October 2019, the UN warned that further progress is needed, when it comes to peacebuilding and security. In May 2019, a UN report underscored the increasing frequency of rebel mortar attacks. Peace Nobel Prize-winner and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in October 2019 that Ethiopia is ready to hold its first free and fair elections next May. But the potential for violence is serious. Opposition activist and founder of the Oromia Media Network, Jawar Mohammed announced in October 2019 that he might challenge the Prime Minister in the elections and accused security forces of trying to orchestrate an attack against him. A death toll of 67 persons was recorded after protests by his supporters in Addis Ababa and across the Oromia region
In the Comoros, President Azali Assoumani, who seized power in a coup in 1999 and won a referendum in 2018 to extend term limits will try to secure a majority at the 19 January parliament elections. The opposition has already dismissed the referendum as illegal and threatens to boycott it if it does not have a say in the composition of the electoral national commission and if Comorians from abroad are not allowed to vote.
In the Seychelles, the question is whether the candidate of the opposition coalition Linyon Demokratik Seselwa will defeat the incumbent President Danny Faure at the December presidential elections. That might indeed be the outcome since, in 2016, the opposition won a majority at the parliamentary elections.
Legislative and local elections are due in Cameroon on the 9 February 2020. The chairman of the opposition Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon, Maurice Kamto has decided to open the lists of his party to civil society activists. Anglophone militants who fight for the secession of Western Cameroon have been released as well but tensions remain high. President Paul Biya remains very reluctant to increase decentralization and sees federalism as a Pandora’s Box.
In Chad, the long-delayed legislative polls are scheduled for March. But a number of conditions must still be met, including the lifting of the state of emergency in the three provinces of Ouaddai, Sila and Tibesti and the enrolment of young voters. In addition, the Independent National Electoral Commission says that the election will depend upon donor funding.

In the Central African Republic, the UN and the African and European Unions want the presidential and parliament elections to take place on the 27 December. But the opposition leader, Anicet Georges Dologuélé suspects President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s supporters are preparing wholesale rigging and considers that, holding such polls in a country where 70% of the territory is in the hands of armed groups,
is not realistic.
Presidential and parliament elections are scheduled in Burundi in July. President Pierre Nkurunziza has said he will not run but this does not mean he will relinquish power. Pundits in Bujumbura stress that Nkurunziza, who sparked a huge crisis with over 1,200 deaths and 400,000 refugees, when he decided to run for a third mandate in 2015, in violation of the Arusha Peace Agreement, is aiming at restoring the monarchy. If there is an election, the opposition is unlikely to win. Twenty leaders of the main opposition party, the national Council for Liberty were arrested in October 2019.
There are growing fears in the neighbouring Congolese province of South Kivu of a regional war that might erupt as a result of alliances between local warring factions. Since March 2019, Bembe, Fulero and Nyindu Mai Mai groups are fighting Banyamulenge militias. Burundian rebels of the Red-Tabara, Forebu, FPB, and FNL groups have joined the Mai Mai’s side while Rwandan National Congress (RNC) rebels who want to overthrow President Paul Kagame of Rwanda are fighting the Banyamulenge side. Local people fear that Hutu rebels of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and of a dissident group, the National Council for the Revival of Democracy may join the Banyamulenge, with the support of the Burundian army, increasing the risk of Rwandan army intervention.

In Southern Africa, everyone hopes Zimbabwe will make some progress towards overcoming its economic crisis. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube predicted in September, that the economy would rebound in 2020 after a 5.2% contraction of the GDP in 2019. But everything depends on talks scheduled in early 2020 to pay off U.S.$ 2 billion of arrears to the World Bank and to the African Development Bank.
In Mozambique, MPs should take office in January after the validation of the presidential and legislative elections in December by the Constitutional Council which were won in October by the ruling Frelimo party, while the incumbent President Felipe Nyusi was re-elected for a second term with a landslide 73% victory. Yet, the opposition Renamo party does not accept its defeat and has called for the annulment of the results, which it calls a “circus”.
François Misser

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